Matty Betss wagered on Jared Verse at 23-1 to follow his Defensive Rookie of the Year campaign with a full-blown DPOY season. Verse posted 66 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 18 QB hits, an eye-popping 77 pressures and 56 hurries in 2024 – leading the entire NFL in one of those latter two categories. He was a Pro Bowler as a rookie, and Betss thinks an eight-to-ten-sack jump is realistic with another year in the Rams scheme. If the counting stats catch up to the pressure metrics, he could replicate Micah Parsons’ path from DROY to DPOY, making 23-1 more than fair.

Matty Betss is firing on Cooper DeJean at a wild 150-1 for Defensive Player of the Year. DeJean allowed zero touchdowns on 560 coverage snaps last season, picked off four passes, and tallied 51 tackles as a rookie while being graded the league’s top slot corner. Betss loves his versatility (nickel, slot, safety) and envisions a stat line of 5+ interceptions, 80 tackles and potentially multiple pick-sixes. If DeJean starts the year with a few splash plays on a high-profile Eagles defense, Betss believes the narrative could snowball quickly, making the triple-digit price worth a sprinkle.

Matty Betss grabbed Puka Nacua at 20-1 for Offensive Player of the Year, pointing to superstar upside if he finally stays healthy. Nacua missed six games last year yet still produced 127.5 fantasy points and carried a 37 % target rate. Betss projects roughly 180 fantasy points over a full season. The key change is the arrival of Davante Adams opposite him; defenses can no longer double Nacua every snap, opening the middle of the field for his YAC skill set. Betss thinks Adams is past his WR1 prime, so Puka should remain the engine of the Rams passing game and could smash if he reaches double-digit touchdowns.

Matty Betss suggested a smaller wager on Justin Herbert at 22-1 for MVP. He noted this is Herbert’s seventh season and bettors have been waiting for the leap from great to elite. The Chargers quarterback threw only three interceptions in 2024, led the league in deep-ball touchdown efficiency, and is projected for 4,500+ yards and 30 TDs if the offensive line holds. With Keenan Allen, Lad McConkie and a healthy receiving corps, Betss thinks the Bolts can challenge Kansas City in the AFC West, which would give Herbert the narrative bump he needs. He likes Hurts more, but believes Herbert’s ceiling justifies a “sprinkle” at these odds.

Matty Betss said Jalen Hurts is flat-out mispriced at 24-1 to win MVP at Circa. He reminded viewers that Hurts finished second in the MVP race two seasons ago, then "regressed" only because Saquon Barkley stole so many headlines in 2024. Hurts already owns 55 career rushing touchdowns – the most ever by a quarterback through five seasons – and threw just five interceptions last year while captaining an offense loaded with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and now Barkley. Betss expects a 10-20 % touchdown regression from Barkley, freeing Hurts to pad both his rushing and passing TD totals behind a still-dominant offensive line. As long as the Eagles are winning and Hurts keeps the turnovers down, Betss believes the narrative and the stats will keep him in the top two or three all season, making 24-1 too juicy to pass.

Matty Betss closed his UFC 319 cycle parlay with Khamzat Chimaev by submission at +135 to +150. Tape study convinced him the wrestling/grappling gulf between Chimaev and Dricus Du Plessis is wider than bettors think: he referenced Du Plessis being taken down and controlled by Darren Till and Derek Brunson, then contrasted that with Chimaev’s dominant top game. Sharp money has already poured in on Chimaev, and Betss liked that Chimaev weighed 183 (two pounds under the limit), signaling elite conditioning. He forecast Du Plessis surviving an early blitz but ultimately tapping in rounds two or three, calling this the most probable outcome and the final piece to turn his $6,500 parlay into $150k.

Matty Betss targeted Kai Asakura by knockout at +180 for leg two. He argued the UFC is feeding Asakura a 38-year-old Tim Elliott to manufacture a statement win after debuting him directly against champion Alexandre Pantoja. Betss raved about Asakura’s lightning knees up the middle, brutal ground-and-pound "baseball kicks," and overall star power. Although Elliott has only been knocked out once and usually loses by submission, Betss believes Asakura’s speed-power combo cracks the veteran in round two for a TKO finish, making the plus-money price a steal.

Matty Betss said he is hammering Drakkar Klose by decision at +250 in UFC 319. Betss noted that 38-year-old Edson Barboza could easily be 1-4 in his last five if not for a late rally against Sodiq Yusuff, and now has to move back up to 155 where his takedown defense historically dips. Betss expects Klose’s superior strength and chain-wrestling to press Barboza to the fence or plant him on his back, shutting down the flying-knee/head-kick arsenal Barboza needs to win. He projected a 30-27 (possibly 29-28) scorecard for Klose, calling it the safest first leg of his cycle parlay.

Matty Betss advocated taking Dricus Du Plessis by knockout at +500 in the UFC 319 main event against Khamzat Chimaev. Betss acknowledged that Chimaev has ballooned from a slight favorite to –260 on the money-line after improving to 14–0 and dominating Robert Whittaker, but argued the number is now bloated. He noted Du Plessis’ knack for surviving bad spots on the mat—citing escapes against Derek Brunson and a comeback rear-naked choke of Israel Adesanya—and pointed out that the South African hits much harder than most middleweights. Betss reasoned that Chimaev’s usual wrestle-heavy blitz burns cardio in the first two rounds; in a five-round fight a prolonged striking exchange would allow Du Plessis to “find that chin and knock him out.” Given the stylistic volatility and the generous +500 price, Betss labeled the Du Plessis KO prop the smartest way to attack the underdog.

After re-watching Dan Ige’s success versus Lerone Murphy, Matty Betss predicted Aaron Pico will lean on his Olympic-caliber wrestling to cruise to a decision. Betss reminded listeners that Pico was a point away from qualifying for the 2016 Rio Games and also owns Golden Gloves credentials, giving him both the grappling and pocket-boxing edge. He expects Pico—eight years younger than recent Bellator crossover losers—to chain takedowns, control from top, and do damage with short elbows rather than chase a low-percentage submission. The only red flag Betss flagged is Pico’s occasional Michael-Chandler-style brawling that leaves his chin high, but if he keeps emotion in check Betss sees a comfortable 30-27 type win.

Matty Betss sided with Michael "MVP" Page, arguing Page’s timing, precision, and reach will overwhelm the 41-year-old Jared Cannonier. Betss noted Cannonier has absorbed heavy damage in three straight wars—knocked out late by Imavov, nearly finished by Robocop, and battered for five rounds by Krylov—and that cumulative punishment plus age drains his speed. Page, meanwhile, enters with a 23-3 record, an 8-inch reach edge, and the same side-on stance that produced a spinning-elbow knockdown of Kevin Holland. Betss expects Cannonier to attempt an early takedown (priced at plus-money for 1+), but doesn’t see him repeating it often enough to matter. Because oddsmakers hang 4-to-1 on an MVP KO, Betss is considering the finish prop—envisioning a flying knee or spinning strike once Cannonier’s slower entries are timed.

Matty Betss said Kai Asakura will finish Tim Elliott by knockout, leaning toward a first- or second-round stoppage. Betss highlighted Asakura’s "fresh, flashy" striking, noting the insane speed he showed in his RIZIN highlight reel where knees and soccer-kick flurries produced most of his finishes. While he acknowledged those techniques are illegal in the UFC, Betss still believes the underlying hand and knee speed translates perfectly inside the Octagon. Elliott’s durability on the feet—only one KO loss in 34 pro bouts—pushes the price on the KO prop, but Betss pointed out Elliott’s tendency to be chaotic in scrambles and thinks Asakura will catch him clean when the veteran over-extends. The tout dismissed Elliott’s grappling edge because he doubts the 37-year-old can consistently ground the quicker Asakura before the decisive strike lands.

Matty Betss said bettors should target Chase Hooper’s Round-3 finish market rather than laying the steep money-line or the short +185 submission prop. Hooper is more than a 3-to-1 favorite, and Betss expects him to lean on his evolving grappling to sap Alexander Hernandez’s gas tank over the first ten minutes. Hernandez, while the heavier puncher and the better pure wrestler early, has repeatedly slowed after strong first rounds. Betss noted Hooper’s improved physicality at age 25 and his willingness to chain-wrestle until an opponent breaks. If Hernandez fades as usual, Hooper’s cardio advantage sets up a late submission or TKO, a scenario books are still pricing generously in the Round-3 prop.

Matty Betss justified laying −350 on Chase Hooper, arguing the 25-year-old is no longer the lanky teenager who got rag-dolled early in his UFC stint. Hooper has filled out physically, owns a sizeable height and reach edge, and rides a five-fight win streak that includes the mauling of Borshchev where Betss nearly cashed a 10-to-1 KO ticket. While Alexander Hernandez has only been submitted once (by Renato Moicano) and can crack on the feet, Betss believes Hooper’s torque-heavy top game and nonstop transitions will replicate the Moicano blueprint. Expect Hooper to crowd Hernandez behind a long jab, drag him down off the cage and either snatch a late choke or control his way to a wide decision. Betss prefers Hooper inside-the-distance props to chase plus money but is comfortable anchoring parlays with the straight line.

Calling it his favorite dog on the slate, Matty Betss endorsed Drakkar Klose at +115 to upset Edson Barboza. Betss hammered Klose’s 64 % takedown accuracy and willingness to mat return opponents, reminding listeners that a much smaller Bryce Mitchell dominated Barboza on the floor. Klose is the younger, fresher lightweight with fewer wars and should carry a noticeable strength advantage in the clinch. Barboza has dropped three of his last five and was nearly 1-4 if not for a late comeback versus Sodiq Yusuff. Betss sees Klose chain-wrestling early, melting clock from top position and forcing Barboza to swing wild counters when he’s tired. Sprinkle Klose decision or even late ground-and-pound props, but Betss’ core wager is the dog money-line.

Matty Betss picked Bryan Battle to edge a decision yet called the −175 money-line too steep. He highlighted Ruziboev’s gaudy 20-submission, 47-fight record but dismissed much of it as regional padding. Battle, meanwhile, is a natural middle-weight who cut to 170 for The Ultimate Fighter run, then missed weight in two of his last three attempts, signaling renewed comfort at 185. Betss likes Battle’s dog-on-a-bone pressure boxing, six career submission wins and current work with Sean Brady and other high-end wrestlers to shore up the takedown issues that Renat Fakretdinov and Joaquin Buckley exposed. He expects a grimy, fans-sleeping-on-it striking affair where Battle’s volume and cardio carry the scorecards, but advises waiting for a cheaper line or playing the decision prop instead of swallowing the chalk.

Matty Betss leaned toward Karine Silva despite the −230 price tag, projecting a decision win. He pointed to Silva’s well-rounded finishing resume – once mirroring Shavkat Rakhmonov with eight KOs and nine subs – and the fact she relocated full-time to the "Five Nerds" camp, a move Betss says has already cleaned up her takedown defense. Silva’s last setback to Viviane Araujo pushed her to tighten those holes. Although Barbosa owns a head-to-head win from years ago and is riding momentum, Betss argued Silva is now the cleaner striker, the stronger clinch athlete and benefits from world-class wrestling drilling at her new gym. He acknowledged Barbosa carries underdog value but still graded Silva the side for straight bets or parlays, expecting her cardio and defensive wrestling gains to show over 15 minutes.

Matty Betss sided with Alibi Idiris by stoppage in the opening fly-weight bout. Betss noted Idris has strung together a long run of inside-the-distance wins on the Kazakhstan regional scene, flattening several experienced Brazilians and rarely seeing the judges. He called out Idris’ shredded frame and steady forward pressure as indicators the finish can translate at UFC level. Morales, by contrast, washed out of the promotion after losses that included being choked by a Figueiredo brother, spent time on the regional circuit, and is now being brought back on short notice. Betss believes Morales’ prior durability issues combined with Idris’ kill-or-be-killed style make a KO or club-and-sub the most likely outcome, making Idris an attractive money-line and ITD play.

Matty Betss said he is siding with Robert "Bobby Knuckles" Whittaker in the prospective Whittaker-de Ridder matchup, projecting a knockout once the former champ finds his rhythm. Betss argued that "every guy who bullies De Ridder just absolutely bullies him," and Whittaker’s trademark forward pressure, combination punching, and scramble-heavy takedown defense should keep the fight upright. He conceded Reinier de Ridder’s 6'4" frame, clinch knees, and all-around grappling are legit, but stressed De Ridder must drag the bout to the mat and dominate top position—something Whittaker’s 85 % UFC takedown-defense rate and lateral movement historically deny. Whittaker has survived five-round wars with Yoel Romero and Israel Adesanya, while De Ridder has been wobbled whenever opponents refused to be backed up. With Whittaker’s experience edge, proven cardio, and the cumulative damage De Ridder absorbs when forced to retreat, Betss leans toward a R2-3 finish but is comfortable playing Whittaker KO/TKO at any plus-money number.

Matty Betss is taking a swing at Reinier de Ridder by knockout at +700 while sprinkling the under 2.5 rounds. He likened de Ridder’s come-forward aggression to Dricus du Plessis—who mauled Whittaker—and stressed that the Dutchman’s 6'4 frame, clinch knees and top-side ground-and-pound make him uniquely capable of bullying a former welterweight. De Ridder owns a 20-2 record and just starched Bo Nickal, evidence to Betss that his striking power is underrated. Whittaker, now 33 with multiple five-round wars behind him, has shown cracks when someone refuses to play a technical kickboxing match. Betss expects de Ridder to back Rob to the fence, unload knees and elbows, or finish with follow-up shots on the mat. He acknowledged Whitaker’s footwork advantage but believes the size, hunger for “new blood,” and Abu Dhabi spotlight tilt volatility toward a finish, making the +700 KO price too good to pass.

Matty Betss is backing Petr Yan either by decision or with the 12-to-1 Round-3 prop. He reminded listeners that Yan notoriously gives away Round 1, then ramps up volume, leg-kicks and wrestling as the fight wears on. Betss expects McGhee—an older late-career prospect—to land something flashy early, but doubts he can handle Yan’s combination punching and calf-kick assault once the former champ downloads reads. Yan has out-struck elite names like Deiveson Figueiredo 121-53 and Corey Sandhagen over five rounds, and Betss believes he can wrestle here if he wants to add banked control time. Because the Russian often turns it on in the back half, Betss likes pairing Yan moneyline with “fight to start Round 3,” or taking the longshot Round-3 finish as a secondary angle while keeping the safer decision ticket in pocket.

Matty Betss warned that the UFC is basically handing Shara Magomedov a showcase in Abu Dhabi and is betting the knockout instead of the +250 decision prop. He said Barriault’s durability is eroding—“Father Time comes for all of us”—and pointed to Bruno Silva’s alarming post-fight comments as an example of how quickly a veteran’s chin can disappear. Betss added that Gilbert Burns, a teammate of Barriault’s, still picked Shara because the Dagestani is simply too fast. Given Magomedov’s stick-and-move style, Betss expects Barriault to walk onto a head kick or straight left the first time he over-extends. With the UFC eager for a viral highlight and Barriault losing a step in the clinch, Betss is laying the juice on Shara inside the distance, calling the KO prop the cleaner path than chasing a fence-stalling 15-minute decision.

Betss explained why he will dabble on Marc-Andre Barriault’s +3.5 point spread at plus money rather than swallowing Shara Magomedov’s −700 moneyline. Shara needs space for his spinning and distance kicks but frequently backs into the fence, exactly where Barriault excels at dirty-boxing and piling clinch knees. Betss conceded the Canadian’s chin may be eroding, yet he expects Barriault’s relentless forward pressure to steal at least one round through control and volume inside the clinch. That single round (or a Shara fence-stalling period) would cash the spread ticket even in a 29-28 loss. Given the UFC’s desire for a Shara showcase, Betss won’t pick the upset outright, but he believes the point spread insulates against a highlight finish while exploiting Shara’s occasional inactivity.

Matty Betss likes Asu Almabayev by decision at roughly +135. He cited Almabayev’s absurd chain-wrestling pace—nearly 50 takedowns over five UFC bouts—and said opponents rarely stand once he’s on top. Jose Johnson (taking the fight on short notice) surrendered two takedowns and 1:42 of control time to Cody Durden before landing a knockout, suggesting the defensive grappling still leaks. Betss doesn’t fault Almabayev for losing on late notice to Manel Kape, projecting that volume of mat returns against Johnson, but stressed Almabayev does little damage on the floor, which limits finish equity and funnels action to the cards. With the moneyline creeping past −120, the decision prop is Betss’s preferred exposure.

Betss pointed to Krylov Round-1 submission at +425 as the sharp counter-angle. He noted Krylov’s grappling is levels above Guskov’s, and the Ukrainian has historically jumped on takedowns early when he senses an edge. Guskov was tapped in the first round by Volkan Oezdemir and still owns a ‘kill-or-be-killed’ gas-tank profile; if Krylov secures an early body-lock and drags it down, he owns seven UFC submissions and could snatch a quick rear-naked or arm-triangle before the power puncher settles in. Given Guskov’s tendency to fade if extended, Betss believes the +425 opener fairly captures Krylov’s clearest path to an upset.

Matty Betss said the market is sleeping on Bogdan Guskov by decision at 14-to-1. While he still respects Guskov’s knockout power, Betss reminded listeners that Nikita Krylov has only been finished twice in 40 pro bouts and generally wears damage well. If the Russian veteran stays upright, Guskov could simply out-box him for three rounds—especially because Krylov, coming off shoulder surgery and a two-year layoff, looked noticeably slower and hesitant against Dominick Reyes. Betss added that heavyweight brawls everyone swears “can’t go the distance” are often the ones that do, making a tiny sprinkle on the +1400 scorecard outcome an inexpensive hedge to the popular KO angle.

Matty Betss circled a wild but logical lottery ticket in the Mitchell-Nurmagomedov bout: the Ninja Choke at 50-to-1 on BetMGM. Bryce Mitchell just tapped to exactly that choke and habitually leaves his neck exposed on single- and double-legs. Saeed owns six career guillotines and routinely hunts front-choke variations, so Betss views the Ninja as an under-priced cousin of the guillotine (7-to-1) and generic sub (4-to-1). He added that Mitchell is cutting to 135 for the first time, looked rag-dolled by Ilia Topuria at featherweight, and tends to gas in late scrambles—making Saeed’s R2-3 sub prop (+800) another angle. Betss refuses to lay Saeed’s money-line juice but will sprinkle the 50-1 Ninja, 7-1 guillotine, and small on the late-round sub, believing one mistake from the unpredictable Mitchell cashes big.

Matty Betss advised betting Bogdan Guskov by knockout, citing Nikita Krylov’s mileage and recent chin issues. Krylov has logged 40 pro fights, underwent shoulder surgery, sat two years, then came back and was violently KO’d by Dominick Reyes. Tape shows he still over-extends on entries—dangerous against Guskov’s counter power. Betss pegs Krylov’s ‘32’ as MMA-equivalent 38, noting the division’s shallow talent pool masks his decline. Unless Krylov wrestles immediately—something Betss doubts—Guskov’s heavy hands should find a finish, likely in Round 2 when Krylov’s output drops. With Guskov’s KO line sitting plus money and the market overrating Krylov’s name value, Betss prefers the knockout prop to any side play.

Matty Betss is doubling down on Carlos Leal violence but gets more specific this time, targeting the Round 1 knockout at +225. Betss argued Salikhov’s only real path is spamming distance kicks, yet the 40-year-old will never find that space because Leal walks opponents down and is the far more physical athlete. Eleven of Leal’s 13 career KOs have come inside the opening five minutes and Betss expects an even faster start now: Leal was ‘robbed’ in his last UFC appearance and recently got engaged, so he is chasing both the win check and a $50k bonus to pay for the wedding. With Salikhov’s durability fading after consecutive stoppage losses and Leal vowing not to risk the judges again, Betss believes the +225 first-round prop offers far more value than the –125 generic KO line.

Matty Betss plans to unload five units on Carlos Leal by knockout at –125, calling it the most straightforward bet on the Abu Dhabi card. He reminded listeners Leal was on the wrong end of what he believes was the worst robbery in UFC history against Rinat Fakhretdinov and is therefore highly motivated to remove judges from the equation. Tape shows Leal throws every strike with finishing intent and has 11 career KOs. Meanwhile 40-year-old Muslim Salikhov has been trending the wrong way defensively, suffering back-to-back stoppage losses to Randy Brown (2023, R1) and Li Jingliang (2022, R2) and relying on a low-volume, kick-heavy style that will give Leal the pressure and distance he needs to land power shots. Betss expects Salikhov’s eroding durability to betray him and forecasted a Leal finish inside two rounds, arguing the –125 KO price is far too short for a fighter who is otherwise a –500 money-line favorite.

Matty Betss said the market is over-pricing a Demond Blackshear submission and recommended playing Blackshear by decision at +200 instead. Betss noted that every opponent Grant has ever been submitted by had previously been subbed in the UFC, a trend that technically fits here, yet he doubts Blackshear will lean on his jiu-jitsu for long stretches because the 29-year-old increasingly prefers to strike and owns a 72-inch reach that serves him well on the feet. Grant is 39, still tricky to hit clean and has not been finished by strikes, so Betss expects a stick-and-move kickboxing match where Blackshear mixes in occasional takedowns to bank control time and out-point the Brit. With the money line sitting at –340 and the submission prop only +200, Betss believes the decision angle captures Blackshear’s most realistic win path while avoiding the juice.

Matty Betss is taking Tabitha Ricci by decision at +200, calling the Ribas–Ricci matchup a true coin-flip that the market has mis-priced. He believes both women are well-rounded with similar judo and BJJ foundations, but expects neither to dominate on the mat because Ribas sports an 85 % takedown-defense rate while Ricci’s best weapon is top-control. Betss highlighted Ribas’ tendency to chase submissions and end up on bottom, something Ricci can exploit for control time. Meanwhile, striking metrics favor Ribas early, yet Ricci’s gas tank and incremental improvements each camp keep things tight. Because nearly all the recent fights for both women have hit the cards, Betss wants the plus-money side in what he pegs as a 50-50 split-decision type fight.

Matty Betss said Carli Judice is a smart bet to win by decision at roughly –120 even though she has never cashed a decision in her career (0-2 when fights reach the cards). He argued the price is a steal because Judice is a 4-to-1 money-line favorite facing an opponent who has never been knocked out and is known for extreme durability. Judice fires 11 significant strikes per minute and has posted 168 and 169-strike outputs in her last two fights, giving her a massive volume edge that should sway the judges. Betts framed it as the classic women’s MMA spot: back the clearly better striker to pile up points against a foe who is almost impossible to finish.

Matty Betss took Dan "50K" Ige by knockout at +325 to +350, predicting an early finish over the 38-year-old Patricio "Pitbull" Freire. Betts noted Pitbull landed only 17 significant strikes against Yair Rodriguez in his lone UFC appearance and was knocked down in two of his final three Bellator bouts, signs of decline and diminished durability. Ige is one of the division’s most powerful pocket punchers and already owns seven UFC knockouts. Betts expects an all-action firefight where Ige’s power finds the target quickly, forecasting a first-round KO that would give Ige his eighth UFC stoppage and cash the final leg of the cycle parlay.

Matty Betss recommended Jimmy Crute by submission at about +170, citing a clear statistical grappling gap with Marcin Prachnio. Crute averages 3.86 takedowns per 15 minutes with 61 % accuracy and attempts 1.86 submissions per 15. Three of his last four victories have come via tap-out. Prachnio, meanwhile, has been submitted every single time he’s faced an opponent who averages at least 0.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes—nearly one-tenth of Crute’s attempt rate. Betts emphasized that Crute’s previous losses came against far more dangerous power punchers like Jamahal Hill and Alonzo Menifield, opponents on a level Prachnio has never shown. Given the matchup, Betts believes Crute drags Prachnio down early and locks something up for the finish.

Matty Betss moved off the chalky knockout narrative and grabbed Ilia Topuria by submission at +575 for the final leg of his "cycle parlay." Betss reminded listeners that Topuria actually owns more career submission wins (eight) than knockouts (six) and came up as a pure jiu-jitsu stylist before falling in love with his hands. The pricing gap makes no sense to him: books have the KO at –160 while dangling nearly 6-1 on the sub even though Charles Oliveira has been tapped four times in the UFC and routinely gets dropped in almost every fight. Betss expects Oliveira’s forward pressure to walk him into heavy hooks; once hurt, Topuria’s club-and-sub or opportunistic front-choke game can finish quickly—potentially faster than Islam Makhachev’s stoppage, a bragging point Betss is certain Topuria would claim post-fight. In short, Betss sees two clear submission pathways (club-and-sub off the knockdown or a guillotine/front-choke in a scramble) and believes the market is sleeping on them.

Matty Betss sided with Ilia Topuria to finish Charles Oliveira inside the distance, singling out the KO/TKO prop despite the –500 moneyline. He explained that Oliveira’s 45-fight mileage shows every time he’s cracked to the body, and Topuria is ruthless in that zone—dropping opponents with liver hooks before swarming. Betss expects Oliveira to be knocked down multiple times, noting the Brazilian has absorbed 3.6 significant strikes per minute and was floored by lesser punchers such as Chandler and Poirier. The undefeated 27-year-old Topuria owns a 100% finishing rate and sits in his athletic prime, whereas Oliveira’s long list of wars has "aged him overnight". While conceding the price disrespects a legend, Betss is betting Topuria KO because body work plus youth vs scar-tissue chin is a recipe for a highlight-reel stoppage.

Matty Betss leaned Alexandre Pantoja by decision, noting the champ’s granite chin and five-round cardio should let him grind Kai Kara-France without necessarily finding the rear-naked choke that cashed in three of Pantoja’s last six. Betss expects Pantoja to wear on France with chain wrestling and top control while mixing in pocket exchanges that France’s booming right hand struggles to land cleanly upon. He highlighted that City Kickboxing has flown in elite BJJ partners to shore up France’s sub-defence, making the tap less likely and pushing value to the cards. With the moneyline hovering around –250, Betss believes a decision ticket (often +200 or longer on a favourite) is mispriced—Pantoja attrition rather than flash finish is the most probable script in his view.

Matty Betss is firing on Houston prospect Joshua Van by knockout, locking in the straight KO prop at +450 and round-specific sprinkles of +1400 (Rd 2) and +1600 (Rd 3). He loves Van’s absurd boxing volume, slick footwork and 90% takedown-defence rate, predicting Royval’s chaotic pressure will walk him into clean counter rights all night. Because both fighters usually move forward, Van will not need to do his usual stalking; Betss thinks that dynamic creates far more finishing windows than the market expects. He foresees multiple knockdowns that slowly break Royval’s posture before the referee steps in late second or early third. Van moneyline at –125 makes the parlay card, but Betss says the KO props are the "cycle parlay" centerpiece given Van’s growing power and the stylistic gift of an opponent who refuses to back up.

Matty Betss said he is backing Renato Moicano and will "sprinkle" the +500 KO prop rather than chase the pick-em moneyline. He argued most bettors assume two elite grapplers neutralise each other and force a decision, but Moicano’s ground-and-pound has quietly turned into a true fight-ending weapon. Betss pointed to the Paris beat-down of Benoit Saint-Denis—Moicano carved BSD’s face up from mount—as proof of that leap. With Beneil Dariush coming off a frustrating layoff and looking visibly older at the presser, Betss thinks the Brazilian holds the fresher gas tank and sharper boxing. If either man lands first, top-position hammerfists will follow—and Betss trusts Moicano’s finishing instincts far more. At nearly 5-to-1, he believes the KO ticket captures hidden value created by Moicano’s cardio edge, improved body work and vicious elbows from guard.

Matty Betss is siding with Felipe Lima by decision after the market flipped the matchup. Talbot went from a –700 chalk in his last bout to a +140 dog here because he was taken down eight times and exposed on the mat. Lima, riding a 14-fight win streak, offers well-rounded kickboxing but isn’t the relentless wrestler who gave Talbot fits. Betss still expects a competitive stand-up battle and leans the judges due to both fighters’ proven cardio. He laments missing the opener—Lima would have been nearly +200 if this fight were booked pre-Talbot loss—but thinks current pick-em moneyline combined with the decision prop gives enough edge to fire.

Matty Betss locked Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues by decision (+220) as leg two of his 34-to-1 cycle parlay. He trusts Jack Hermansson’s durability after seeing the Swede survive early hell against Joe Pyfer before storming back late. Matty expects Rodrigues to land a knockdown or two in the first 10 minutes but believes Hermansson’s footwork and defensive grappling keep him from getting subbed or pounded out. With only three of Robocop’s 16 pro wins going to the judges, Betss argued the modest +220 tag screams hidden value—odds-makers know Hermansson is hard to finish in a three-rounder.

Matty Betss sees juicy value in Hyder Amil by decision at +450. He reminded viewers that Delgado’s lone defeat is a decision and every one of his 14 wins ended inside the distance, making the Dominican more finish-or-bust than books admit. Amil, by contrast, has four decision victories and just showed he can edge a technical striker in William Gomis. Matty expects a pressure vs sniper battle that reaches the scorecards more often than pricing suggests, and if it does, Amil’s forward movement and volume should resonate with judges in what he predicts will be a split-type fight.

Matty Betss told listeners the market is sleeping on violence in Cortez-Araujo. Books are hanging +350 on ‘fight not to go the distance’ even though Viviani Araujo owns seven finishes in 13 wins and Cortez has six career stoppages herself. Matty pointed out that public bettors reflex-bet women’s MMA overs, but these two throw with intent and Araujo’s cardio routinely falls off a cliff late, creating finish equity for either side. He also flagged eye-popping alternate numbers: Cortez Inside-the-Distance 9-to-1 and Cortez KO 22-to-1, calling them worth sprinkles because “ladies are due for a finish.” In short, he is fading the narrative that every women’s flyweight fight hits the cards.

Public money has drifted toward Viviani Araujo, but Matty Betss still sides with Tracy Cortez by decision. He sees this as a step-down in competition after Cortez held her own in a 2023 decision loss to Rose Namajunas and previously beat the physically imposing Jasmine Jasudavicius. Matty expects Cortez’s blend of solid boxing volume and chain wrestling to bank minutes, while Vivi must land power shots early to sway the judges. Araujo’s cardio fade and Cortez’s historical propensity for control-heavy fights pushed Matty to ride the favorite on the cards rather than chase a finish in a women’s flyweight matchup that profiles as low-volatility.

Matty Betss urged bettors to take Ilia Topuria by submission at +575 rather than chase the heavily juiced KO prop (-160). While public perception centers on Topuria’s boxing power after knockouts of Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski at 145, Betss reminded listeners that Topuria’s base is Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu—he owns eight career subs versus six KOs. Charles Oliveira has been submitted four times and is notorious for getting dropped, then retreating to the mat where opponents rarely follow. Betss envisions either a ‘club-and-sub’ sequence after a knockdown or a front-choke opportunity if Oliveira aggressively clinches. With both scenarios live and the market skewed toward the knockout, Betss called the +575 submission line “so mispriced” and the value side of the fight.

Matty Betss recommended betting Gregory "Robocop" Rodrigues to win by decision at +220, arguing the prop is mispriced. He noted Rodrigues faded late in his five-round bout with Jared Cannonier, but this weekend’s fight is only three rounds and Robocop’s nutrition and weight-cut issues have reportedly been ironed out. Betss expects Rodrigues to bank Rounds 1 and 2 behind his striking and physicality. Jack Hermansson’s 56% strike-defense rate, durable chin, and smart grappling game (he survived and beat Joe Pyfer) make a finish unlikely, so a 29-28—or even 30-27—scorecard in Rodrigues’ favor is Betss’s most probable outcome.

Matty Betss said to lay the juice on Jacobe Smith by knockout at -275 and anchor parlays around it. Smith owns an 80% career KO rate and pairs "massive power" with the kind of wrestling that can generate ground-and-pound finishes if the clean shot does not land. On the other side, Niko Price has been stopped by strikes in five of his eight defeats – 63% of his losses – and Betss believes the Robbie Lawler fight confirmed that Price’s chin is eroding. Given those durability concerns and Smith’s finishing profile, Betss projected the stoppage to come in Round 1 (Round 2 at the latest) and labeled the KO prop “beyond free.”