Matty Betss has confidently targeted Paddy Pimblett by submission (+240) against Michael Chandler, seeing clear value given Chandler's susceptibility and Pimblett's grappling opportunism. Matty cited Chandler's history of submission vulnerability, specifically highlighting Chandler's submission loss to Dustin Poirier. He mentioned the UFC's strategic matchmaking aimed at elevating Paddy's star status, especially with this event occurring on a major pay-per-view card in Miami. Matty stressed the likelihood of Chandler making positional mistakes, offering Paddy openings to secure a rear-naked choke similar to his past victories. Additionally, he considered scenarios where Pimblett might even capitalize from his back if Chandler aggressively pursues ground-and-pound. Given Matty's substantial personal wager ($150k sweat pending on his parlay), Pimblett's well-rounded skill improvement and the high odds offered, he strongly emphasizes this submission bet.

Matty Betss identifies strong value betting Yair Rodriguez by decision (+150), citing Patricio 'Pitbull' Freire's extremely low striking volume as problematic against Rodriguez's dynamic and high-volume kick-based striking attack. Matty notes Pitbull largely relies on landing powerful single strikes and might struggle to match Rodriguez's pace. He specifically referenced Rodriguez's impressive past performances, including visibly hurting Brian Ortega in their fight, emphasizing Yair's striking skills and fight IQ. Seeing widespread hype around Pitbull entering UFC, Matty labels him an 'underdog trap' at age 37 facing Rodriguez still in prime form (age 32). Ultimately, Matty confidently included Rodriguez by decision in his betting cycle parlay, expecting a clear points victory likely 30-27 or 29-28 across the judges' scorecards.

Matty Betss strongly recommends Joanderson Brito (referred to as Jean Silva) by knockout against Bryce Mitchell. He cited Brito's previous performance against Drew Dober, nearly finishing him in round two and securing a doctor stoppage in round three, highlighting Brito's high-level counter striking and finishing capability. Matty emphasized concern over Bryce Mitchell's durability, referencing Mitchell's devastating knockout loss to Josh Emmett, from which Mitchell hasn't appeared to fully recover. Although recognizing slight vulnerability in Brito potentially fighting on the back foot, Matty confidently argues Mitchell will struggle to handle Brito's striking for extended periods, believing Brito will find the KO eventually. Despite acknowledging this as a 'square bet,' Matty remains bullish, confidently placing Brito by knockout as one of his favorite plays on the card.

Matty Betss identified Julian Erosa via submission at +400 as a high-value bet in his matchup against Darren Elkins. He highlighted Elkins' vulnerability to submission attempts, specifically referencing his recent fight with Daniel Pineda, where Elkins barely escaped a round-one guillotine. Matty emphasized Erosa's potent submission skills, particularly his guillotine choke, which previously submitted the otherwise resilient Fernando Padilla (C-Rod). He confidently expects Erosa to have multiple opportunities for finishes—either through hurting Elkins on the feet and locking up a submission or capitalizing on sloppy takedown attempts. Given Elkins' grit, Matty favors submission over knockout, believing Erosa's high finishing rate (47% submissions in his wins) is particularly appealing at these odds, making this the first leg of his longshot betting cycle parlay.

Matty Betss reinforced his stance on Jim Miller as an attractive underdog KO prop bet at massive +1500 odds against Chase Hooper. He pointed out that while Hooper has progressed physically since his initial UFC appearances, he's still vulnerable on the ground if he can't secure his submissions. Matty specifically liked Miller's physicality, toughness, and veteran savvy to potentially control positions on the ground and finish with ground-and-pound strikes. Despite recognizing Hooper's clear path to victory through submission, Matty stressed the exceptional value offered by Miller's KO odds, given his experience and capable striking from top position.

Matty Betss included Paddy Pimblett by submission as a critical leg in his highly confident three-part cycle parlay, which also features Sean Woodson by decision and Nikita Krylov by knockout. Although detailed analysis behind this Pimblett pick was not exhaustively provided, Matty underscored his full trust in this bet and highlighted the massive upside, placing a $5,000 wager at substantial 30-to-1 odds for a possible $153,000 payout. He prominently positioned Pimblett's submission finish as essential to leveraging the broader package's payout potential, reinforcing its betting appeal.

Matty Betss identified Sean Woodson to win by decision (+110) as a solid betting proposition against Dan Ige. He highlighted Woodson's sizable reach and height advantage (6'2 vs 5'7), elite boxing, footwork, and proficient distance management that should frustrate Ige in closing distance. Considering Ige's extreme toughness and durability—never knocked out previously—Matty believes a finish is unlikely, thus making Woodson's decision victory an ideal betting opportunity. Woodson's weight cutting difficulties are a mild concern, but Matty emphasized Woodson's ability to use clinch knees and defend takedowns effectively, making this his first official leg of a planned decision-prop betting cycle.

Matty Betss boldly projected Diego Lopes to upset Alexander Volkanovski via knockout at +350 odds in UFC Miami's main event. Despite acknowledging Volkanovski's established credibility, Betss favors Lopes' youthful explosiveness, size, and striking power as critical advantages. He argues Lopes presents match-up challenges that Volkanovski has not consistently faced, offering significant upset potential. Considering these stylistic match-up difficulties and the attractive betting odds, Betss leveraged this prediction within his longshot cycle parlay, seeking substantial returns predicting Lopes' knockout victory in an upset scenario.

Matty Betss enthusiastically advocated betting Diego Lopes by KO against Alexander Volkanovski, currently priced at plus money around +120 overall. Matty highlighted significant concerns about Volkanovski's chin, referencing him getting hurt badly in consecutive fights—a round-two knockdown by Ilia Topuria and an early headkick from Islam Makhachev. While acknowledging Volkanovski's legendary toughness and skill levels, Matty strongly asserts that Lopes possesses fight-ending power, as demonstrated vividly against opponents like Sodiq Yusuff and Brian Ortega. Against Ortega, Lopes clearly hurt him early but failed to capitalize properly, a mistake he believes won't be repeated here. Matty firmly articulated that Lopes' best opportunity lies within the first two rounds and explicitly predicted an early KO/TKO as his fight script, making this a key leg of his official longshot cycle parlay wager.

Matty Betss selected Julian Erosa by submission at odds above +400 against durable veteran Darren Elkins. Betss highlights Erosa's impressive submission ability, citing his 14 career submission victories representing nearly half of his total wins. He emphasized recent performances, such as consecutive guillotine finishes over credentialed grapplers, underlining Erosa's dangerous skill set. Conversely, though Elkins possesses notable toughness, Betss pointed out Elkins' struggles with positioning during his bout with Daniel Pineda—indicating potential susceptibility to submission threats. Considering Erosa's superior submission skills relative to past opponents Elkins has narrowly escaped from, Betss expects Erosa to capitalize on submission opportunities—making this high-odds pick a valuable part of his longshot cycle parlay.

Matty Betss recommended looking at the late KO props for Michal Oleksiejczuk, specifically rounds 2 (+650) and round 3 (+1000), against opponent Sedriques Dumas. While he doesn't believe Dumas is significantly chinny or will be finished early, Matty sees a scenario where Michal's aggressive striking style, toughness, and experience against elite competition could gradually wear down Dumas, potentially setting up a late-round stoppage as fatigue sets in. Matty provided curiosity about Oleksiejczuk's improved preparation, mentioning his recent training with the 'Fighting Nerds' gym as a positive indicator of continued striking refinement.

Matty Betss mentioned Jim Miller as a compelling longshot KO bet at +1500 odds against Chase Hooper. He broke down a potential game script where Hooper, the young submission specialist, aggressively pursues ground submission attempts but struggles to secure them. Matty believes Miller's veteran ground skills and power could allow him to reverse positions, posture up, and land a fight-ending ground-and-pound KO. Matty specifically noted that playing the submission game with Miller could backfire for Hooper, describing Miller as physically imposing enough to dominate via ground strikes. Despite acknowledging Hooper's superior current jiu-jitsu skills, Matty feels the extremely high odds (+1500) provide irresistible upside for this longshot scenario playing out.

Matty Betss identified Mitch Raposo as a compelling longshot KO bet at around +750 odds against Su Mudaerji. Matty pointed to Su's previous performances, especially his war against Matt Schnell, as evidence of damaged durability after sustaining significant punishment. Noting that Su seemingly could have been stopped multiple times during that fight, Matty believes Raposo, who is younger and continually improving his striking, could take advantage with a precise shot. He expects an aggressive, striking-filled bout that could present Raposo the opportunity to land effectively on Mudaerji's increasingly vulnerable chin.

Matty Betss mentioned considering a high-value submission prop for Nora Cornolle at roughly +700 odds in her match against Hailey Cowan. He referenced Cowan's previous submission vulnerability, notably a guillotine defeat at LFA three fights ago, and expects some scrappy grappling exchanges that might lead to a submission finish. While Matty sees Nora as overpriced at -180 and won't strongly endorse straight moneyline wagering, he specifically noted the attractive value in betting her by submission due to historical defensive weaknesses from her opponent.

Matty Betss enthusiastically backed Paddy Pimblett to defeat Michael Chandler by submission, outlining a clear path to victory rooted in Pimblett's opportunistic submission skills. Although Chandler survived five rounds against Oliveira without being submitted, Betss sees Chandler as prone to critical mistakes during fights, especially becoming overly aggressive and reckless. Pimblett's history of capitalizing swiftly on grappling openings—particularly highlighted by his tight submission finishes—positions him ideally to exploit Chandler's tendency for critical errors. Pimblett's ability to quickly seize submission openings, backed by his confidence, sets the stage for Betss's selection of Pimblett at compelling odds of +240. This prediction features prominently in Betss' main cycle parlay.

Matty Betss confidently selected Sean Woodson to win by decision against Dan Ige, emphasizing Woodson's distinct physical and technical advantages. Woodson's height, excellent boxing, footwork, and head movement make him particularly challenging for opponents at this weight class. Betss highlighted Ige's known durability and black belt credentials, noting he typically provides resistance to being finished. Consequently, Betss expects Woodson to strategically outpoint Ige from the outside, avoid grappling exchanges and dangerous pocket engagements, predicting a clear but competitive decision victory (29-28) based on effective striking at range. This pick forms a cornerstone of Betss' official cycle parlay at UFC Miami, capitalizing on Woodson's style matchup and decision probability at favorable betting odds.

Matty Betss strongly recommended betting on Nikita Krylov by knockout against Dominick Reyes based on several key factors. Krylov is an underrated finisher in the division, boasting six first-round finishes in the UFC and more than ten across his MMA career. Dominick Reyes has shown recent vulnerabilities and signs of declining durability, having been knocked out by Ryan Spann and visibly hurt in exchanges with Dustin Jacoby. Betss pointed out Reyes' consistent susceptibility to strikes, calling him chinny of late. With Reyes historically showcasing good submission defense, a Krylov knockout at +350 offers significant value, especially considering Krylov's track record of early finishes. This bet forms a crucial leg of Betss' primary cycle parlay for UFC Miami at attractive odds.

Matty Betss advised considering Marko Tulio Silva to win by KO against Tresean Gore, pointing to Gore's prior KO loss to Cody Brundage and raising questions about his readiness at UFC level. Although Silva's moneyline odds are too steep at around -400, Matty sees clear value in a KO prop priced at even money (+100). He underscored Silva's consistent finishing power and expects this fight to reveal Gore's actual skill level given past chaotic victories against opponents like Josh Fremd and Antonio Trocoli, which Matty interpreted as surprise wins rather than sustained dominance.

Matty Betss addressed potential cardio concerns regarding Diego Lopes against Alexander Volkanovski, confidently citing Lopes' strong conditioning improvements. Matty highlighted Lopes' most recent fight against Brian Ortega where despite early aggression, Lopes delivered his highest significant strike volume in round three, demonstrating excellent late-fight conditioning. While acknowledging Volkanovski's elite fitness and championship experience, Matty minimized late-round cardio concerns about Lopes, feeling assured in Lopes' conditioning to remain dangerous beyond early rounds. Matty sees Lopez as incredibly motivated, conditioned, and primed for a potential multi-round battle if it happens to go longer, though he predicts Lopes finishes earlier, within two rounds.

Matty Betss strongly recommends betting Diego Lopes by knockout at plus-money odds (+120) against Alexander Volkanovski. Matty emphasized Volkanovski's compromised durability, highlighting recent consecutive fights where he has been significantly hurt and finished—including early finishes by Ilia Topuria and Islam Makhachev via headkick. Conversely, Matty praised Lopes' power, fighting form, and ability to hurt opponents early, referencing an impressive uppercut knockout of Sodiq Yusuff and a near knockout of Brian Ortega, where Ortega only survived due to ground exchanges. Matty expects Lopes to significantly threaten Volk early, believing that Volkanovski, despite superior skill and fight IQ, will likely be vulnerable to Lopes' powerful strikes within the first two rounds. Matty has made this prop bet a key part of a longshot parlay, clearly seeing excellent standalone value at current odds.

Matty Betss warns strongly against backing Michael Chandler due to his consistent history of losing winnable fights, particularly in high-profile matchups. Despite acknowledging Chandler's exciting fight style and his promotional charisma, Matty stresses Chandler frequently sabotages himself, making critical strategic mistakes at key moments. Facing the rapidly improving Paddy Pimblett, Matty confidently labels Chandler as a fighter who 'finds ways to lose,' emphasizing the UFC's favorable matchmaking for Pimblett on pay-per-view to elevate his star potential, thus strongly steering bettors away from Chandler.

Matty Betss supports betting Paddy Pimblett against Michael Chandler, stressing Paddy's clear recent improvements. Noting Pimblett's enhanced durability, discipline with nutrition, and more refined striking, Matty strongly criticizes Chandler's tendency to 'find ways to lose fights.' Additionally, he highlights the calculated UFC matchmaking that likely favors a Pimblett victory to increase his star power on a marquee pay-per-view event. Betts confidently views Pimblett, currently poised and developed beyond his earlier UFC opponents (like Jared Gordon and Jordan Leavitt), as the more reliable betting side anticipating a significant win against the inconsistent and unreliable Chandler.

Matty Betss strongly advises bettors not to back Patricio 'Pitbull' Freire despite incoming hype ahead of his UFC debut against Yair Rodriguez. Matty identifies 'Pitbull' and Darren Elkins as the two major underdog traps of UFC 314. Although recognizing Pitbull as a popular fighter with notable victories from his Bellator career, Matty highlights his very low striking volume and KO-dependent style as ill-suited against Rodriguez's high-volume and dynamic kicking game. Matty cautions bettors not to fall for Pitbull's name recognition and inflated appeal, strongly preferring a bet on Rodriguez by decision instead.

Matty Betss confidently bets Joanderson Brito to win by knockout against Bryce Mitchell. Matty strongly backs Brito's KO potential, highlighting his previous performance against Drew Dober, where Brito nearly finished the fight and eventually got a doctor stoppage. Matty also underscores Mitchell's concerning KO loss against Josh Emmett that knocked Mitchell out cold for minutes, a damaging event he believes has profoundly impacted Mitchell's durability. Though acknowledging the bet might appear square to some, Matty remains convinced Brito's superior counter-striking and proven ability to finish fights—including heavier opponents at lightweight—make the KO prop valuable.

Matty Betss confidently predicts Nikita Krylov will knockout Dominick Reyes in the first round, backing his assertion with extensive fight tape. He cited Reyes showing declining durability, notably losing by early KO to Ryan Spann from a mere jab. Matty also references Reyes' knockout defeats against top competition like Jan Blachowicz and Jiri Prochazka. He acknowledged Krylov’s balanced finishing ability (12 KOs and 16 submissions), yet strongly narrowed his focus to a first-round KO at +750 odds, emphasizing Reyes' compromised chin and stylistic vulnerability against a fresh and dangerous striker like Krylov. Matty also supports the under 1.5 rounds at +125 odds, viewing this as one of his largest bets.

Matty Betss strongly advised against betting Chase Hooper to win by submission in his matchup with Jim Miller due to very unattractive odds and a challenging stylistic matchup. While Hooper previously was a profitable submission bet against weaker grapplers like Clay Guida, Matty emphasized that Miller presents a bigger challenge with superior jiu-jitsu and fight IQ. Matty highlighted that Miller tends to lose more to knockouts now because of accumulated career damage rather than submissions, meaning Hooper's grappling path to victory is far riskier than the odds imply. Consequently, Matty strongly recommends passing on the Hooper submission line due to the inflated price and tough matchup.

Matty Betss strongly favors taking Julian Erosa to win by submission at enticing +400 odds in his fight against Darren Elkins. He emphasized Erosa's elite guillotine choke—citing previous impressive submissions, including tapping out previously unsubmitted fighter Christian Rodriguez. Matty noted Elkins' frequent vulnerability to submission attempts, referencing Elkins' struggle with guillotines specifically against Daniel Pineda recently. With Erosa's proven finishing instincts and Elkins' damage-heavy, reckless fighting style, Matty described the +400 price as extremely attractive for a fighter who finishes nearly half of his career wins via submission.

Matty Betss identified good potential value on Michal Oleksiejczuk KO wins in rounds two (+650) or round three (+1000) against Sedriques Dumas. Matty noted Dumas isn't particularly chinny, predicting he'll be durable enough to survive early exchanges, but could become vulnerable as the fight progresses. Given Oleksiejczuk's aggressive striking and KO power, as shown in fights including when he put down Kevin Holland (who rarely gets finished), Matty sees significant profit opportunity leveraging those round-specific knockout props rather than betting Michal straight at shorter odds.

Matty Betss highlighted Mitch Provost as a potentially valuable longshot at +750 odds to win by knockout against Su Mudaerji. Matty emphasized Su Mudaerji's recent wars, particularly referencing his grueling fight with Matt Schnell where Su appeared to nearly finish Schnell multiple times yet failed to close the show. Given Su Mudaerji's accumulated damage and Provost's ongoing improvement, notably in striking, Matty sees significant value in Provost landing a decisive shot and believes the big price (+750) makes him an appealing speculative play.

Matty Betss discussed Nora Cornolle as a potential submission bet at significant odds (+700) against Hailey Cowan. Matty cited Cowan's guillotine loss three fights ago at LFA as a notable red flag in her recent history. While acknowledging uncertainty around the grappling dynamics in this matchup, Matty felt Cornolle might have the grappling edge overall, particularly if exchanges become messy and chaotic. Despite minimal confidence in either fighter on the money line at current odds, Matty saw decent betting value getting +700 for Nora Cornolle via submission, given Cowan's demonstrated vulnerability.

Matty Betss explained there's potential value in betting Marco Tulio Silva to win by knockout at even money against Tresean Gore. He noted that Gore has previously been stopped by strikes, specifically highlighting Gore being "starched" by Cody Brundage. Matt further emphasized Gore's inconsistent preparation, such as having fought without a proper corner or clear strategy in the past. Given Silva's ability on the feet and Gore's vulnerability to knockouts, Matt sees Silva by KO as potential betting value, though he's hesitant due to the line only offering even money (+100).

Matty Betss recommended betting Yan Xiaonan by decision (+200) against Virna Jandiroba. His reasoning revolved around Yan's superior striking skill, power advantage, and her impressive resume against elite fighters such as Jessica Andrade. Despite acknowledging Verna's dangerous grappling and takedown prowess, Matty noted Verna historically loses exclusively via decision (all three career losses). He expects Verna might score takedowns but struggle to land meaningful damage, allowing Yan's impactful striking to sway judges' scorecards. Matty plans including this pick in a multi-leg decision parlay for added value, particularly highlighting the underdog decision prop as best value given the expected fight dynamics.