For one-and-done leagues, Andrew Phelps advised burning Collin Morikawa at Bay Hill. Morikawa is fresh off a win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and a T7 at the Genesis, showing noticeable driving gains to pair with his trademark elite irons. He finished runner-up here last year and owns multiple top-10s at the event, proof he can handle thick rough and firm, fast greens. Phelps pointed out that the course rewards patience and precision—Morikawa’s calling cards—and that projected pick percentages are only moderate, offering both a high floor and realistic win equity in OAD formats.

Calling +14500 a worthwhile flyer, Andrew Phelps highlighted Ryo Hisatsune’s profile: 24th in GIR (73.48%), 36th in SG: Approach, 21st Off-the-Tee and 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green over the past three months. The 22-year-old logged T2, T10 and T8 before a T45 at the Genesis and already owns multiple Challenge Tour wins. Phelps argued that Bay Hill favors precision over raw distance, fitting Hisatsune’s strengths, and while this is his debut, the combination of current form and statistical fit offers big-number upside.

Andrew Phelps recommended Jordan Spieth at +194 for a top-20, noting that in difficult tee-to-green conditions over the past two years only Scottie Scheffler, Russell Henley and Rory McIlroy have gained more ball-striking strokes. Spieth owns T4, T4 and T30 finishes in three Bay Hill starts and ranks 3rd in this week’s field in SG per round at the venue. Recent form is steady—one missed cut in 10 events with five top-30s, including a T12 at the Genesis. Phelps believes Spieth’s controlled shot-making and proven course history make the price too long.

Andrew Phelps said Jacob Bridgeman is mis-priced at +186 for a top-20 at Bay Hill. Bridgeman just lifted his first PGA Tour trophy at the Genesis Invitational and owns 2026 finishes of T4, T13, T18, T8 and a win while shooting under par in 18 of 20 rounds. He ranks 4th in total strokes gained, 1st in putting, 6th in SG: Approach and 15th in GIR, numbers that dovetail with Bay Hill’s emphasis on total driving and long-iron accuracy. The Clemson product was T15 here last year and arrives 19th in the OWGR, giving Phelps confidence he contends again.