Pat Fitzmaurice also punched Sami Valimaki at +14000, citing the Finn’s torrid November run—2nd at the Worldwide Technology, 18th at Bermuda and a win at the RSM. Fitzmaurice emphasized Valimaki’s top-tier putting and strong iron play while noting his one weakness, driving, is mitigated here because players can leave the big stick in the bag on most holes.

Pat Fitzmaurice grabbed Ryan Gerard at 80-1 after Gerard nearly won the Sony Open last week. The analyst believes last week’s close call proved Gerard’s ceiling and that his current form, combined with a tournament demanding relentless birdie-making, gives him real winning equity at long odds in a field top-heavy with bigger names.

Pat Fitzmaurice backed Si Woo Kim at +5000, pointing to Kim’s victory here in 2021 and three straight Top-25 finishes since. Fitzmaurice reminded listeners that the American Express is a Poa-green putting contest spread across three short courses and said Kim’s proven comfort on Pete Dye designs makes him a prime outright target despite the deeper 2026 field.

Bo McBrayer suggested sprinkling beer-money stakes on Brian Campbell at +200000 outright, +5500 Top-10 and +1900 Top-20. Although Campbell "has almost no ball-striking to speak of," McBrayer noted his short game is so sharp that he routinely piles up birdies on short, benign layouts like these three American Express courses. Campbell has burned the betting public before at monster odds, and McBrayer is willing to risk a dollar or two in case his putter heats up again.

Bo McBrayer targeted Harry Hall at +4000 (he grabbed 45-1 earlier) because Hall is, in his words, a "birdie-making machine." Hall’s strengths align perfectly with McBrayer’s heavily weighted model: birdie-or-better rate, opportunities gained and par-3 strokes gained, where Hall ranked fifth last season. On soft Poa greens with perfect weather, McBrayer believes Hall’s elite putting can separate in a tournament that historically requires −25 or lower to win.

Pat Fitzmaurice rounded out his card with Bud Cauley at +18000. Cauley posted four Top-15 finishes at this event between 2016 and 2020, including a 3rd and a 4th, and Fitzmaurice highlighted excellent strokes-gained numbers on these tracks. Fresh off a solid Sony Open, Cauley’s familiarity with the rotating Poa greens makes him a live long-shot in what Fitzmaurice calls a pure putting contest.

Bo McBrayer said Sami Valimaki is his favorite outright at +14000 and a Top-10 at +800 because the Finn ranks eighth in this field in birdie-or-better percentage on easy-scoring courses and second in strokes gained on par-3s, the only holes that can bite this week. With three short tracks, tame rough, 80-degree sunshine and virtually no wind, McBrayer expects a pure birdie fest and wants players who can attack flags all day. He admitted Valimaki is volatile but argued the forgiving setup lets him "let it rip" and capitalize on his elite scoring profile.