TheWeasle picked Alibi Idiris to win by unanimous decision. His reasoning hinged on three pillars: (1) superior wrestling – he expects Idiris to plant Morales on the mat repeatedly and bank control time; (2) far more recent cage time – Idiris has fought consistently since debuting in 2019, whereas Morales has logged only three bouts since 2018 and none since February 2023; and (3) the Kazakh’s wild, flying-knee-and-wheel-kick striking that will rack up visible damage while Morales sticks to a lower-output, jab-and-low-kick approach. The inactivity gap, combined with Idiris’s 9-0 record (five finishes) versus Morales’s 12-2 slate, makes the tout comfortable laying the money-line chalk or using Idiris in parlays and DFS lineups that reward takedown volume.

Matty Betss sided with Alibi Idiris by stoppage in the opening fly-weight bout. Betss noted Idris has strung together a long run of inside-the-distance wins on the Kazakhstan regional scene, flattening several experienced Brazilians and rarely seeing the judges. He called out Idris’ shredded frame and steady forward pressure as indicators the finish can translate at UFC level. Morales, by contrast, washed out of the promotion after losses that included being choked by a Figueiredo brother, spent time on the regional circuit, and is now being brought back on short notice. Betss believes Morales’ prior durability issues combined with Idris’ kill-or-be-killed style make a KO or club-and-sub the most likely outcome, making Idris an attractive money-line and ITD play.