Matty Betss flagged Evan Elder’s submission number at 12-to-1 as flat-out wrong. Elder is a South Florida product with versatile BJJ, and Matty reminded listeners his only UFC loss came via doctor-stoppage cut, not a skill gap. Tape showed Quillan Salkild repeatedly taking Gage Young down and threatening angles that Elder can replicate with sharper ground-and-pound and tighter chokes. Young was previously finished by arm-bar, gasses when forced to defend prolonged grappling and now enters on short notice. Matty plans to sprinkle Elder-by-sub outright and slide it into a small two-leg submission parlay (he mentioned pairing it with Damon Blackshear) rather than pay Elder’s modest money-line. He conceded Young’s KO at +600 is also off, but the Elder tap-out path is the juiciest mis-price on the board.

Andy Lang called the current –250 range price on Evan Elder “a gift” and recommended backing him straight or via decision. Lang argued that Gauge Young’s glossy 9-2 record is padded by wins over opponents with 5-5 and 2-7 marks, and the Contender Series loss showed how he stalls when forced to fight someone who can wrestle back. Elder, meanwhile, was winning on all cards against Nazim Sadykhov before a doctor-stoppage cut and has since rattled off two dominant victories, including a finish of Darius Flowers. Lang highlighted Elder’s 70 percent takedown defense and crisp pocket boxing that produced 5.3 significant strikes landed per minute in his last three appearances. He expects Young to shoot early, get stuffed, and then eat combinations for three rounds, making Elder by decision (+125) or Elder money line a strong bet and potential parlay piece.

The Weasle projected Evan Elder to outpoint Gage Young. He noted Elder’s sharp jab, long combinations and excellent punch extension that punished Quinlan Salkill in prior bouts. Young owns superior wrestling but shows porous striking defense and was repeatedly tagged on the regional scene. If Young cannot mix double-legs behind his foot-work feints, Elder should dominate the stand-up exchanges and cruise to a scorecard victory.