Andy Lang echoed Alexander’s enthusiasm, labeling the Rams a "schedule win" play over 9.5 victories. He ran through the slate and counted double-digit approachable games—Texans, Titans, Colts, Panthers, Cardinals twice, Seahawks twice, Buccaneers, Saints—and likes that the brutal Eagles and Ravens contests are on the road, preserving easier home dates. Lang trusts Sean McVay to scheme out two wins every season on coaching alone and notes the defense was extremely young last year and should improve with experience. With divisional rivals 49ers and Seahawks "down," Lang projects 11-12 wins and calls the over "one of my favorite totals along with the Falcons."

Andy Lang countered by taking the Dolphins over 8.5 wins, projecting a 10-win 'wonky good' season at plus money. His case: (1) The schedule is again top-five easiest and offers only three cold-weather road games after Oct. 26, with New England in Week 18 possibly meaningless. (2) A neutral-site game vs. the Commanders and several late-season home dates in Miami heat historically tire visiting teams, giving the Dolphins a home-field boost. (3) Lang acknowledges health concerns for Tua Tagovailoa but is betting on marginal improvement—"maybe he runs out of bounds, just throw the ball away"—arguing even average durability unlocks the offense led by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. (4) He notes incremental offensive-line upgrades plus linebacker/safety additions, and believes continuity under Mike McDaniel can gel in Year 3. Lang plans to hedge mid-season if the team sputters, but views the plus-money over as the sharper dice-roll.

Andy Lang said the Texans are a clear over bet on their 9.5-win total. He reminded listeners that Houston already won 10 games last season despite ranking dead last on every major offensive-line metric. Lang expects at least marginal improvement after the team replaced the offensive coordinator and hired a new OL coach. Walking through the 2024 schedule, he flagged only three true uphill spots (at Ravens, vs Bills, at Chiefs) and rattled off a dozen matchups he expects the Texans to be favored in, including soft divisional dates against the Colts, Titans, and Jaguars. Lang trusts D'Amico Ryans to keep the defense inside the top five and loves the addition of C.J. Gardner-Johnson for his championship pedigree. With C.J. Stroud’s continued growth and a deeper receiver room, Lang projects five to six AFC South victories and easily finds another four elsewhere, putting double-digit wins firmly in play. Over 9.5 wins is one of his favorite season-long bets.

Andy Lang echoed the under on Detroit’s 10.5-win total, stressing that replacing both coordinators and five assistants is simply too much overhaul to expect immediate success. Lang walked through the early slate—at Packers, Bears, at Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs, Buccaneers—calling it a “brutal” stretch that could drop Detroit below .500 before the bye. He noted that Dan Campbell sets tone and aggression, but without Ben Johnson’s play-calling or Aaron Glenn’s defensive tweaks, the Lions will struggle to match last season’s 12-win pace. Lang added that the NFC North improved across the board, further squeezing Detroit’s margin for error. His recommendation is to bet the under now before market sentiment shifts.

Andy Lang said he is betting Denver over 9.5 wins and projects 10-11 victories. His conviction rests on several factors: he trusts Sean Payton's track record of squeezing wins out of sound defense-first rosters, he calls 2024 first-rounder Bo Nix "the real deal," and he loves the front-seven upgrades (Evan Engram, Dre Greenlaw, a former 49ers safety and the re-signing of DJ Jones). Lang ran through the schedule, flagging Tennessee, Indianapolis, the Jets, Giants, Cowboys, Houston and the Raiders twice as clear win opportunities and expects Denver to split with both the Chargers and Chiefs. With that path, he believes double-digit wins are the most likely outcome.

Andy Lang is fading Cincinnati’s 9.5-win number because he does not trust Joe Burrow’s surgically repaired wrist to hold up for 17 games. Lang called the injury "terrifying" and argued that without Burrow the Bengals are "dead in the water." He also cited a brutal mid-season gauntlet (back-to-back road trips to the Ravens, Bills, and Dolphins) and a defense that ranked 21st on PFF with no meaningful offseason upgrades. The Bengals’ notoriously frugal front office and lack of offensive-line improvements further cement his under stance.

Andy Lang leaned Under 6.5 wins, pointing to a brutal final 10-game stretch that features Bills, Packers, Falcons, 49ers, Rams, Seahawks and the Buccaneers twice. He expects at least eight of those opponents to be in playoff races, leaving little slack for a young Carolina squad that will be underdogs in most of them. Lang thinks the Panthers must sweep the Saints and grab several early coin-flip games (at Jaguars, at Cardinals, vs Falcons, Patriots, Dolphins, Cowboys, at Jets) just to stay on pace; losing even one Saints matchup likely kills the over. Because of that late-season gauntlet and numerous toss-ups, his slight betting preference is the Under.

Andy Lang leaned to the OVER on Arizona’s 8.5 wins, arguing the market is underrating a team that already scraped to 8-9 last year despite a bottom-10 defense. He believes the front-seven makeover (Josh Sweat, Dalvin Tomlinson, L.J. Collier) plus rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. give the roster real upside. Lang pointed out an inviting opening stretch—Saints, Panthers, 49ers, Seahawks, Titans, Colts, Packers—that could easily start 5-2 and, in his words, “has to be 2-0 right there” with New Orleans and Carolina. He thinks the NFC West is weaker than perception: Seattle and San Francisco defenses are shells of their 2023 versions, and the Rams remain volatile. If Arizona nabs a winning record inside the division, he sees them sneaking to nine or ten wins. Depth at running back behind James Conner, a mid-season bye for a reset, and an offense that finished 7th in DVOA last year all pushed him toward an OVER bet, even if he concedes bettors might wait to confirm Kyler Murray’s health in Weeks 1-2.

Andy Lang doubled-down on Cody Durden as a plus-money play, saying the current 2-to-1 price on Tatsuro Achoa is wildly inflated. Lang argued Achoa has only faced "Home Depot" level competition, whereas Durden owns the clear strength-of-schedule edge and brings a relentless pressure-wrestling style Achoa has never dealt with. Lang expects Durden to shoot early and often, forcing Achoa to defend takedowns and neutralizing the Brazilian’s shoot-box striking. Because the threat of the takedown will also stifle Achoa’s volume, Lang believes the fight should be lined close to pick’em and labeled it a classic "dog-or-pass" spot, recommending a straight bet on Durden to win.

Andy Lang thinks the market over-corrected by making newcomer Tatsuro Achoa a 2-1 favorite over Cody Durden. Durden owns the strength-of-schedule edge with UFC bouts against Charles Johnson, Muhammad Mokaev, and Jake Hadley, while Achoa’s recent pre-UFC opponents had losing records. Lang expects Durden’s relentless pressure wrestling to smother Achoa and sees significant underdog value on the veteran.

Andy Lang likes Joaquin Buckley’s knockout prop around +150 in Saturday’s five-round main event. He argued the 38-year-old former champion opposite Buckley is clearly declining— diminished explosiveness since the Covington bouts, two sluggish showings versus Leon Edwards, and well-documented knee problems that sap his wrestling base. Buckley, meanwhile, is 6-0 since dropping to 170 lbs, finishing four of those wins. Lang expects Buckley to stuff takedowns, dictate pace on the feet, and eventually land a fight-ending shot before the scorecards.

Andy Lang said the Seahawks are an "easy under" on their 7.5-win total and urged bettors to fade Seattle now rather than wait. Lang argued the front office blew up a 10-win roster and replaced its core with huge question marks: Geno Smith, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are gone, leaving Sam Darnold at quarterback and 31-year-old Cooper Kupp to headline the passing game. Lang does not believe Darnold will replicate the brief "Good Sam" stretch he flashed in Minnesota and pointed to the lack of pre-existing chemistry between Darnold and breakout WR1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He emphasized that Kupp thrives on timing-based routes with Matthew Stafford, timing that will not exist in Seattle. The schedule adds volatility—nine matchups Lang labeled coin-flips plus trips to San Francisco and Pittsburgh out of the gate—making it hard to find eight wins even if Darnold plays well. He also questioned how many games the oft-injured Kupp will suit up for. In short, Lang sees roster downgrades at quarterback and receiver, uncertain coaching direction in Year 2 under Mike Macdonald, and a slate full of 50/50 games as a perfect recipe for six wins or fewer, making the under 7.5 a bet he is willing to lock in today.

Andy Lang also leaned under 9.5 wins, stressing how Washington’s quirky schedule leaves no margin for error. The first 11 weeks bounce between soft spots (home Giants, Raiders, Dolphins) and brutal draws (at Packers, at Chiefs, home Lions) with a slew of coin-flip road games in Atlanta and Los Angeles. December is the killer: at Giants on Dec 14, home Eagles six days later, home Cowboys five days after that on Christmas, then a potential flexed finale versus Philadelphia. Mix in six primetime dates and multiple short weeks and Lang thinks even one missed start from Jaden Daniels — despite the Mariota insurance signing — could sink the season. Because books posted a near-perfect 9.5, he can only make a “slight” wager to the under, but he would have fired a full position if the market opened at 10.5.

In one-and-done formats, Andy Lang is rolling with J.T. Poston, citing Colonial’s modest 7,200-yard layout as a perfect match for the straight but shorter hitter. Poston is coming off a fifth-place finish last week and logged a T12 at Colonial in 2024, proving the fit. Lang added that Poston’s putter heated up over the weekend—gaining 4.1 strokes on the greens—and feels his recent spike in birdie rate makes him an ideal high-floor option for gamers chasing season-long prize pools without burning an elite stud.

Andy Lang labeled Hideki Matsuyama a potential "trap" this week, noting that after his statement win at The Sentry the Japanese star has failed to crack a top-10 finish and has missed the cut in three of his last five starts. Despite eye-catching strokes-gained numbers that mirror Fleetwood’s, books have Matsuyama priced inside the top-five outright tier. Lang sees no recent evidence—let alone top-10 upside—to warrant that number and recommends avoiding exposure until Hideki strings together at least one contending weekend.

Andy Lang advised fading Tommy Fleetwood in outright and top-end markets, saying the Englishman simply "doesn’t have the upside to win." Fleetwood’s last runner-up came in 2022 and he has still never lifted a PGA Tour trophy. While the underlying metrics are solid across the board, Lang argued that books have priced him as a top-three choice based on aesthetics rather than actual win equity. Given Colonial’s premium on closing ability—seven of the last eight winners held a 54-hole lead—Lang refuses to pay a premium for a golfer who repeatedly stalls on Sundays.

Andy Lang warned bettors to steer clear of Jordan Spieth despite the predictable Texas narrative. Spieth missed the cut last week and has posted finishes of 37th and MC the past two years at Colonial. While books have him priced as a top-five option in a weak field, Lang sees nothing in the recent data to justify that premium. He called Spieth "very inconsistent," noting the brief run of four straight strong results has already faded and that small-field pricing inflates his odds artificially. Lang’s bottom line: there are better ways to deploy your bankroll than forcing a Spieth ticket based solely on hometown vibes.

Andy Lang went “back on Sam Ryder” at $6,800, calling him the DraftKings darling of 2025. Ryder has missed only one cut all season and immediately bounced back with a T13 the very next week, underscoring his consistency. Lang cited Ryder’s +0.75 strokes-gained putting average as the engine behind that reliability and noted that Colonial’s small greens further accentuate putting prowess. With a year-long track record of making weekends and generating birdie chances, Lang views Ryder as the safest sub-$7k option to pair with Scheffler in DFS builds.

Andy Lang highlighted Kevin Roy at $6,600 as a steady salary-saver for DraftKings builds that start with Scheffler. Roy has made the weekend in four straight PGA Tour events, a streak Lang values in this weak field. Although the irons have been merely average, Roy’s flatstick has been hot enough to offset the approach concerns. Lang noted Colonial is not overly demanding off the tee, so a solid putting week should translate into useful fantasy scoring. If Roy extends the cut-making streak, Lang expects him to pay off handsomely relative to price.

Andy Lang tabbed Brian Campbell as his favorite punt play on DraftKings at just $6,400. Lang admitted the rookie is one of the shortest hitters on TOUR but said Colonial’s 7,200-yard layout neutralizes distance and rewards Campbell’s strengths. Over the last 30 days Campbell ranks top-15 in both strokes-gained approach and strokes-gained putting, numbers Lang called “incredible for a guy this cheap.” Campbell has made four of his last five cuts, and Lang argued that simply getting to the weekend at this salary unlocks the cap room needed to jam Scottie Scheffler. He sees realistic T25 upside if the irons stay hot.

Andy Lang said Daniel Berger is "going to win one of these" sooner rather than later and urged bettors to pounce before the market fully adjusts. Lang pointed to Berger’s elite ball-striking numbers – a +1.38 strokes-gained approach average over the last 30 days that trails only Scottie Scheffler – and noted that the former Colonial champion is second in the field in total strokes gained over the last three months. Tee-to-green play remains "fantastic," with off-the-tee gains every week since March, and Berger has turned that into eight top-25 finishes in his last 10 starts (worst finish T33 at the PGA). The lone blemish is the putter, but Lang reminded listeners that hot putting streaks come in waves and expects positive regression on familiar, slower Colonial greens. Given the consistency and proven course history, Lang recommended outright tickets as well as top-10/20 props before the number shortens further.

Andy Lang called the matchup a layup for Yadir DelValle inside the distance. Re-watching DelValle's Contender Series bout, Lang noted relentless forward pressure, heavy clinch knees and violent ground-and-pound. Meanwhile Connor Matthews was dominated by Francis Marshall, then returned to regional shows and still could not finish low-level foes like Jose Ferris. Lang cited Matthews’ leaky striking defense and tendency to tire under pressure, predicting DelValle will overwhelm him and score a KO. He is comfortable playing either the straight KO prop or generic ITD line.

Andy Lang warned listeners not to over-focus on the KO prop and instead lay the slightly juicier “inside the distance” number for Rodolfo Bellato. Lang argued Paul Craig no longer wrestles effectively – he has not completed a takedown in years – so Bellato can sprawl, force stand-ups and crack him at range. Once Craig inevitably face-plants, Bellato could just as easily jump on the neck as pound out a TKO, a scenario Lang compared to Carlos Ulberg’s surprise submission. Because KO is only a few cents better than ITD while leaving you exposed to the club-and-sub outcome, Lang believes ITD is the sharper wager. He still expects Bellato to starch Craig inside two rounds, but wants full coverage of all finish methods instead of sweating a ref’s timing or a quick choke.

Andy Lang made Costa his favorite chalk of the card, saying the matchup screams early knockout. Lang replayed Julian Erosa’s most recent bout and could not get over the fact that a completely shot Darren Elkins landed two takedowns and several clean punches. Erosa’s hands hang at his waist, his chin has already been cracked five times in the UFC, and Lang thinks he is simply "due to get chin-checked." Meanwhile Costa looked sharper than ever against Christian Rodriguez—crisper right hand, nasty calf kicks and, most important, a full gas tank that let him keep pressure for three rounds. Lang believes those weapons, combined with Costa’s willingness to mix in an opportunistic takedown, expose Erosa’s nonexistent defense. He is betting Costa inside-the-distance (+175) with a smaller sprinkle on the Round-1 KO prop (+450) and considers the straight moneyline a parlay anchor.

Andy Lang tentatively sided with Gabe Green despite the Californian’s surprise drop to 155 pounds. Lang admitted the cut could sap durability—"we’re losing fluid on the brain"—yet still felt Green’s relentless pressure and UFC-level experience outweigh Matheus Camilo’s regional tape, which featured long stretches of being pinned to the mat by a 13-5 journeyman at ZFN-2. Green was competitive with Ian Garry and Brian Battle at welterweight and, in Lang’s opinion, is being "punished" with this newcomer after those losses. Provided Green doesn’t look like Skeletor on the scale, Lang plans to back him straight and may chase an in-fight live line if Camilo survives the opening salvo but starts backing up under Green’s pace.

Andy Lang is jumping on Thiago Moises as an underdog, arguing the market’s fascination with Jared Gordon is misplaced. Lang ran through Gordon’s recent resume—decision losses to Nasrat Haqparast and Paddy Pimblett plus low-leverage wins over 40-year-old Mark O. Madsen and roster casualty Leonardo Santos—and sees nothing that justifies the current price. Conversely, Moises looked revitalized against Trey Ogden after linking up with a new coaching staff, ripping calf kicks and mixing takedowns with far crisper boxing than we saw in his lethargic loss to Ludovit Klein. Lang believes those low kicks will disrupt Gordon’s forward-clinch style, while Moises’ superior submission arsenal gives him the grappling safety valve. He plans to verify Moises’ conditioning at Friday weigh-ins but expects to bet the moneyline and sprinkle the sub prop if the Brazilian looks anything like he did last time out.

Andy Lang is taking plus-money on Carlos Hernandez. Lang’s angle is a consistent fade of Road-to-UFC graduates like Youngsang Park, noting that Park’s best wins are over Shannon Ross and regional opponents who would struggle on the Contender Series. Hernandez, though inconsistent, has already shared the cage with elite prospects Tatsuro Taira, Allan Nascimento and Rei Tsuruya, giving him far stronger UFC-level reps. Lang trusts Hernandez’s seasoning, submission defense and better cardio to show once the adrenaline dump hits Park, making the underdog price too juicy to pass.

Andy Lang said Pennington was an automatic bet here, calling the matchup “Pennington all day.” Lang thinks Pinheiro is only dangerous in the opening five minutes – once the fight spills into Round 2 she fades badly and becomes, in his words, “a dead woman walking.” Pennington, by contrast, is a pace-driven veteran who just went toe-to-toe with Amanda Ribas and owns a win over Carla Esparza. Because Pennington never gases and is notoriously hard to finish, Lang expects her to absorb the early storm, then out-volume a winded Pinheiro for a comfortable decision. He is betting the Pennington moneyline and considers it one of the simpler handicaps on the card.

Andy Lang told listeners to keep every penny away from Mayes-Peterson. He leans Peterson only because Mayes routinely trips over his own feet, but Lang flagged major red flags on Peterson as well, citing how different he looked since Dana White’s Contender Series—"something is up with Thomas Peterson." Because neither side offers a skill or cardio advantage you can trust, Lang said even over/under markets are a guess and the fight should be ignored from a betting standpoint.

Andy Lang echoed the Under 2.5 recommendation, noting that either woman can finish inside fifteen minutes. He agreed that Rodriguez’s porous takedown defense makes her unlikely to survive prolonged top pressure from Robertson, who "doesn’t wrestle for points—she drops hammer-fists." On the flip side, Lang warned that if Gillian struggles to wrestle, Marina’s boxing could end the fight quickly, citing the Brazilian’s history of brutalizing Michelle Waterson-Gomez. Because both finishing conditions are realistic and plus money is available, Lang labeled the Under the only way he is attacking this fight.

Andy Lang countered that Gaston Bolanos is the better side because Li’s takedown defense is "rudimentary at best." Lang said Road to UFC prospects who don’t arrive on wrestling credentials generally struggle once placed on their back, and he expects Bolanos to exploit that by mixing his usual striking with top-time heavy grappling. He cited Bolanos’ control numbers versus opponent Ramius earlier in the year and believes the bout could devolve into Bolanos laying on Li for long stretches. Lang leans Bolanos moneyline, though he admitted the price must be right and likely will not be an official bet.

Andy Lang said Ivana Petrovich is a smash spot wager because Juliana Miller is simply not UFC-level right now. Lang reminded listeners that Miller has not fought since August 2023, has undergone three surgeries in that span, and is coming in with the emotional weight of losing her grandmother. He pointed to Miller’s historically poor metrics: gassed out in the first 90 seconds versus Luana Santos, absorbed 41 significant strikes while landing just 9 in that bout, and showed zero takedown success (0-for-6 across her last two fights). Petrovich, meanwhile, is 7-2 and took unbeaten Jamie Lynn Horth to a split decision, showing clear physical strength in the clinch. Lang does not believe Miller can get Petrovich down and called Miller’s striking “horrific and skinny,” predicting Petrovich will “dog-walk” her, likely inside the distance. He advised betting Petrovich moneyline and sprinkling the finish prop.

Andy Lang predicted Cory Sandhagen will make the main-event look easy. Sandhagen owns a five-inch height and reach advantage, throws nearly two more significant strikes per minute than Deiveson Figueiredo and—per Lang—shows some of the best mid-fight adjustments in the division, often sealing rounds with late takedowns or flashy opening exchanges that sway judges. Figueiredo’s only real path is wrestling, but that requires walking through Sandhagen’s jab, knees and angles, and the former flyweight champion has historically struggled with longer, quicker opponents. Lang also pointed to Sandhagen’s recent grappling-heavy win over Umar Nurmagomedov as proof the Coloradan can lean on top control if needed. Because every realistic win condition leans Sandhagen, Lang is comfortable using the big favorite as a parlay anchor rather than guessing method-of-victory props.

Andy Lang said Daniel Marcos is once again being slept on and he is happily betting the Peruvian at plus money. Lang thinks the market is over-rating Montel Jackson’s 18-second knockout of Rani Yahya, comparing it to the one-off Hail-Mary knee Derek Lewis landed on Marcos Rogerio de Lima—spectacular but not predictive. Jackson has fought only four times in the past four years and those wins came against fringe names like Yahya, JP Buys and Jesse Strader, giving bettors no recent sample against live opposition. Marcos, meanwhile, is 17-0 with decision wins over Simon Oliveira and John Castaneda and went strike-for-strike with Adrian Yanez before edging a split against Davey Grant. Because neither bantamweight has ever been finished, Lang likes pairing Marcos moneyline with ‘Fight Goes the Distance’, expecting the higher-volume Marcos to out-work a ring-rusty Jackson over three competitive rounds.

Andy Lang is taking a shot on Cameron Smotherman as the underdog after seeing real evolution in the Jay Hadley fight. Lang highlighted that Smotherman controlled pace and geography, stuffed multiple takedowns, and immediately scrambled up the few times Hadley did complete a shot—skills that were absent when Smotherman was knocked out on Contender Series. He deems City’s split win over Garrett Armfield uninspiring and notes City’s face was ‘beat to shit’ in the Taveras rematch. If the Hadley-version of Smotherman shows up—pressuring, athletic, and willing to dictate clinch positions—Lang believes he will out-work City over three rounds or find a late finish, making the plus-money moneyline worth a stab.

Andy Lang echoed the Stephens knockout angle, telling viewers to avoid parlays with Mason Jones entirely and instead ‘just take Stephens by K.O.’. Lang pointed out that Stephens is fighting in his home region, will be in full kill-or-be-killed mode on a one-fight contract, and has zero intention of wrestling or pacing himself. Given Stephens’ age and style, Lang does not expect any other realistic win condition—no submissions, no point-fighting decisions—so the KO prop captures all of his equity while juicing the already sizable underdog price.

Andy Lang backed the Santos side, repeating his long-standing rule against wagering on fighters sporting fresh veneers or Botox—an indirect ding on Tate’s current mindset. He warned that if Tate’s first takedown attempts fail, her striking deficit will be apparent and Santos will "piece her up" with enough volume to sway judges or score a late finish. Lang is passing pre-fight but plans to fire a live bet on Santos once she stuffs a couple of shots, believing Tate’s path is binary top-control and nothing else.

Andy Lang declared Ryan Loder one of his favorite underdogs on the card. Lang mocked Bekoev’s 19-3 record as padded—seven fights ago Bekoev was still facing 3-0 or 0-0 competition—and pointed out that Bekoev could not finish low-level journeyman Dylan Budka and needed Chauncey Foxworth to gas before scoring a KO. Loder, meanwhile, showed "prime Chris Weidman"-style blast doubles on The Ultimate Fighter, immediately finishing uber-prospect Robert Ballantyne and demonstrating massive year-over-year improvement. Lang expects Loder’s unapologetic Division-I folkstyle attack to ground Bekoev repeatedly, and he likes the money-line plus sprinkling a Loder-by-finish prop.

Andy Lang advised fading retiring Anthony Smith and backing Mingyang Zhang by KO/TKO or the under 1.5-round prop. Lang leaned on his long-standing 'Fade the retiring fighter' theory, noting the UFC routinely pairs departing veterans with violent finishers to create a highlight. He doubts Smith can wrestle because lower-back deterioration is usually the first physical decline for older fighters and Smith has not landed a true takedown in years—his most recent submission came only when Vitor Petrino gifted him a guillotine. Zhang, just 26 but a nine-year pro, owns a 90 percent finish rate and routinely nukes opponents in Round 1. Lang also questioned Smith’s mental state: the ex-contender has shown emotional fragility after the Teixeira beat-down and the in-cage tragedy following his coach’s death. Expecting another slow start from an overwhelmed Smith, Lang projected a first-round knockout and recommended Zhang money-line to –180, Zhang Round 1 (+150) and fight under 1.5 rounds at plus money as primary bets.

Andy Lang is betting Giga Chikadze straight and via decision (+120), arguing that Onama’s only real weapon—one-punch power—gets neutralized by Giga’s distance kicks. Lang pointed out that Chikadze lands 3.8 significant kicks per minute to the legs and body, a pace that historically cuts Onama’s output by 40 % when rivals attack his lead leg. Onama has never faced an elite kicker and needed Hail-Mary exchanges to get past Gabriel Santos and Garrett Armfield. Lang believes Chikadze’s experience against top-five talent means he’s seen faster, cleaner strikers than Onama and will pivot off the center line all night. He projects a 29-28 scorecard, suggesting bettors parlay Giga money-line with other chalk or grab decision while the market worries about a flash KO that “just isn’t coming against this level of striking defense.”

Andy Lang doubled down on Pereira, predicting a round-3 KO after Abus’ trademark cardio dump. Lang reminded listeners that Pereira just survived 25 minutes of suffocating chain-wrestling from Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez and still got back to his feet nine of 12 times—something Abus, who shoots single-layer doubles, simply can’t replicate. Once Abus’ power fades, Lang expects Pereira to mix in his own offensive wrestling, force scrambles, and unload the spinning elbows and front-kicks he now uses more selectively. Lang highlighted Magomedov’s 38-percent striking defense and the fact he has been rocked in three straight fights. He is betting Pereira inside-the-distance (+140) and laddering round 3/4 props for a bigger payday, cautioning that the money line is moving fast as sharps fade the “one-round fighter.”

Andy Lang said he is flat-out fading Jimmy Flick again and backing Matt Schnell either on the money-line or, preferably, inside-the-distance. Lang argued Flick offers zero knockout threat— he has never scored a UFC knockdown and lands only 2.1 significant strikes per minute—so Schnell’s notoriously fragile chin is less of a concern. Schnell, meanwhile, averages 4.3 sig-strikes per minute, owns a 58 % striking accuracy edge over Flick and carries legitimate submission skill when fights hit the mat. Lang noted Flick’s only path is a frantic grappling blitz, but Schnell defends 65 % of takedowns and scrambles well. Flick retired in 2021, returned after “a walking country song” of personal issues, and has been finished in both comeback bouts (KO by Charles Johnson, TKO by Alessandro Costa). Lang expects Flick to shoot recklessly, wind up under Schnell and get pounded out or caught in a choke by Round 2. He advised Schnell ITD at +110 or the sub/TKO prop ladder for bigger payouts.

Andy Lang called the current –250 range price on Evan Elder “a gift” and recommended backing him straight or via decision. Lang argued that Gauge Young’s glossy 9-2 record is padded by wins over opponents with 5-5 and 2-7 marks, and the Contender Series loss showed how he stalls when forced to fight someone who can wrestle back. Elder, meanwhile, was winning on all cards against Nazim Sadykhov before a doctor-stoppage cut and has since rattled off two dominant victories, including a finish of Darius Flowers. Lang highlighted Elder’s 70 percent takedown defense and crisp pocket boxing that produced 5.3 significant strikes landed per minute in his last three appearances. He expects Young to shoot early, get stuffed, and then eat combinations for three rounds, making Elder by decision (+125) or Elder money line a strong bet and potential parlay piece.

Andy Lang said he is ‘fading Malcolm Wellmaker’ and backing Cameron Saaiman on the money line. Lang argued that Wellmaker’s 2-minute Contender Series knockout offered no look at his cardio or defensive layers, and the 8-0 prospect still leaves major openings when he throws power. Saaiman, only 24, has already logged three UFC appearances and learned from a KO loss to Talbott plus a decision with Christian Rodriguez. Lang highlighted Saaiman’s diverse kicking game, 5.32 significant strikes landed per minute, and proven durability—he absorbed 100+ strikes from Talbott before going out. He believes the South African’s experience edge and volume will exploit Wellmaker’s porous 42 percent striking defense and drag the late-finishing debutante into waters he has never seen. In Lang’s view this continues the trend of Contender Series rookies faltering in first UFC outings, making Saaiman a straight bet or parlay anchor.

Andy Lang highlighted Billy Horschel as a player carrying positive momentum into the Houston Open following a standout TGL performance. Calling Horschel the MVP and someone fans would 'run through a brick wall' for after his electrifying energy and performance on Monday, Lang suggests this positive emotional boost could translate directly into confidence and strong play at Memorial Park. Bettors and fantasy golfers should consider leveraging this favorable scenario given Horschel's appealing spirit and trending upward form.

Andy Lang recommended Chandler Phillips as an appealing DraftKings budget selection for the Houston Open, highlighting his affordability at only $6,500. Though Phillips lacks driving length, he's been reliably making cuts, succeeding in five of his last six events including a 45th-place result at Memorial Park last year. Lang believes Phillips' consistency in reaching weekend play significantly boosts his value, making him ideal as a low-priced DFS filler capable of stabilizing rosters.

Andy Lang strongly advised against betting or utilizing Tony Finau in DFS formats for the Houston Open. Lang acknowledged Finau's exceptional history at Memorial Park—finishing first and second the past two years—but pointed out his troubling current form. Finau ranks just 25th in total strokes gained within this relatively average field, significantly worse than his typical elite standard. This season, he has managed only one top-10 finish, alongside three missed cuts, indicating both a lower ceiling and significantly worrying floor. Given his overly high market pricing as a top-eight golfer, Lang found Finau unplayable in any fantasy or betting scenarios this week.

Andy Lang recommended caution with Michael Kim this week at the Houston Open, citing signs of fatigue and regression. Kim previously had a career run with five straight top-13 finishes but recently experienced a missed cut and a mediocre 28th place finish. As he enters his eighth tournament in consecutive weeks, Lang suggested that rest might have benefited Kim more than continued competition. Additionally, Kim's past performances at Memorial Park are notably weak, finishing only 64th and 47th in his last two appearances. Given these factors and his high market pricing as a top-10 golfer for the week, Lang strongly advised avoiding bets or DFS lineups including Michael Kim.

Andy Lang warned bettors against backing Scottie Scheffler at the Houston Open, emphasizing that the current version of Scheffler is noticeably different from last year's dominant form. Scheffler hasn't finished inside the top two yet this season and only managed 20th and 11th in his two recent tournaments. Moreover, for the first time in recent memory, Scheffler isn't the leader in total strokes gained for the field—a stark drop-off considering he usually dominated this metric. Lang cited a concerning scenario last week when Scheffler barely remained inside the top-20, relying on the outcome of another player's final putt. With all key stats trending slightly down, Lang concluded that Scheffler is overpriced at current odds and is a player to avoid this week, particularly in head-to-head matchups or outright bets.

Andy Lang mentioned Wyndham Clark as an uncertain betting option, describing him as an enigma due to his spotty recent form. Despite Clark's impressive world ranking (11th globally and third-highest in this field), Lang highlighted that Clark's recent performances have been disappointing, featuring brief good moments but failing to sustain consistent high-level play. Given the inconsistency relative to market pricing and expected popularity, Lang viewed Clark cautiously this week, implicitly recommending against backing him strongly in betting or DFS lineups.

Andy Lang selected J.J. Spaun for his one-and-done this week at the Houston Open, highlighting Spaun's impressive recent performance. He noted Spaun's two runner-up finishes in the past three weeks and attributed Spaun's only missed cut this season to an unfortunate withdrawal, rather than poor play. Although Spaun's course history at Memorial Park isn't particularly impressive, Lang prioritizes current strong form over past results at this venue, suggesting Spaun's momentum makes him a worthy choice despite historical struggles at this specific course.