Gary Pearson grabbed Packers +2.5 on Thanksgiving, pointing to Green Bay’s ability to choke off Detroit’s preferred ground attack. He cited EPA per play that ranks the Packers’ front ninth in the league and a run–defense success rate that holds opponents to the fifth-fewest yards per carry. Pearson reminded readers that Week 1 was Jahmyr Gibbs’ worst rushing output of the season—19 yards on nine totes—because Green Bay’s interior linemen reset the line of scrimmage all afternoon. With Jared Goff far less efficient when forced into long down-and-distance situations, Pearson expects the Packers to shorten the game, keep Detroit under its team total, and cover the short number.

Jim Sannes said the Packers are a live underdog at +124 because his model rates them as the superior team even on the road. Through Week 12, Green Bay sits 5th in numberFire’s schedule-adjusted offensive rankings and 3rd through the air, while Detroit ranks 7th in both categories. The Packers also lead the NFL in schedule-adjusted late-down success rate. Defensively, Green Bay is 7th compared to Detroit’s 13th, and the Lions remain banged up with safety Kerby Joseph missing Monday’s practice. Sannes’ numbers make this matchup nearly a pick ’em, so he views the + odds on the Packers’ moneyline as clear value.

Erich Richter backed Green Bay +2.5 for Thanksgiving in Detroit, stressing that the Packers’ defense is the sharp side of this matchup. He cited Aaron Schatz’s FTN DVOA projections showing a statistical dead heat and pointed out that Green Bay is allowing only 4.6 yards per play while Detroit is giving up 5.1. With the Lions sputtering for two straight weeks and having just made Jameis Winston look like a competent 2026 starter, Richter expects bettors to steam the Packers and shrink the spread before kickoff. He framed the play as ‘defense travels’ value, looking for closing-line equity on a live underdog.

Erich Richter backed Green Bay +2.5 for Thanksgiving in Detroit, stressing that the Packers’ defense is the sharp side of this matchup. He cited Aaron Schatz’s FTN DVOA projections showing a statistical dead heat and pointed out that Green Bay is allowing only 4.6 yards per play while Detroit is giving up 5.1. With the Lions sputtering for two straight weeks and having just made Jameis Winston look like a competent 2026 starter, Richter expects bettors to steam the Packers and shrink the spread before kickoff. He framed the play as ‘defense travels’ value, looking for closing-line equity on a live underdog.