Mike Spector tagged Houston as his lone five-star moneyline play at +102 on FanDuel, arguing that the Texans’ 9-3 mark in division games with C.J. Stroud under center and DeMeco Ryans’ 11-3 record immediately after a loss give them a tangible situational edge over Jacksonville. He noted that Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. has hauled in just 5 of 19 targets, keeping Trevor Lawrence’s ceiling in check, and that Jacksonville squandered a chance to beat a Joe Burrow-less Bengals team last week. With most books pricing the matchup as a pick’em, Spector views the lone plus-money number as false value and recommends a straight moneyline stab on Houston.

Cluff predicted Houston 23-20, noting the Texans swept Jacksonville last season and expects C.J. Stroud to repeat the trick in a pivotal AFC South matchup. The pick implies value on Houston moneyline in what books list as a tight contest.

Pulling from Sporting News and Arizona Republic write-ups, Giannotto emphasized that C.J. Stroud has carved up Jacksonville for 7 TDs, 0 INTs, and a 110.1 passer rating across his first two meetings while Houston has taken three of the last four in the series. With the Texans getting a full point on the road, Giannotto sees value in backing a Houston offense that ranks top-10 in explosive-pass rate against a Jaguars secondary giving up 8.3 yards per attempt. He projects another tight AFC South game decided by a field goal or less, making Houston +1 the play.