Data Skrive’s win‑probability feed gives Pittsburgh just a 53% chance to defeat Cleveland, but the betting market is asking bettors to lay -178 (implied 64%). That 11‑percentage‑point gap translates to roughly a 6% negative expected value on the Pirates moneyline. Pittsburgh is only 5‑4 as a favorite this year and 3‑7 ATS over its last 10 games, while the Guardians have already posted three outright wins as underdogs. With both offenses mediocre (Pirates 3.4 runs, Guardians 4.4 runs per game over their past 10) and neither pitching staff coughing up more than 3.5 earned runs per nine in that span, the model suggests passing on the chalk and instead considering Cleveland at +149 or better.

The Data Skrive model projects Saturday’s matchup in Pittsburgh to fall short of the 8‑run total. The key inputs: the Pirates are averaging only 3.4 runs across their last 10 games and have gone under in seven of those contests, while the Guardians sit at 4.4 runs per game during the same stretch with a 4‑4‑2 O/U mark. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff owns a 3.26 ERA over its last 10 outings and Cleveland’s is at 3.48, suggesting both bullpens are in form. Guardians starter Ben Lively brings a 10.3 K/9 that could neutralize Oneil Cruz and the Pirates’ left‑handed power. Despite a glitchy 5‑4 score projection (which would hit nine runs), the model still assigns a 53% probability to the Under—enough edge to fire at even money or better.