Bill Harrelson said he is taking Jose Altuve UNDER 1.5 total bases on PrizePicks for the 11:35 AM series finale at Fenway. The capper pointed out that Altuve has failed to reach two bases in eight of his last ten outings, including both games against Boston this weekend. Looking back 20 games the under is hitting 55% (11-of-20), and over a 107-game 2025 sample the under is still 55%. When you fold in last season’s 155 games Altuve has stayed below 1.5 in roughly 56% of his last 260 contests. He has been particularly quiet versus the Red Sox, falling short in five of the last six head-to-head meetings. Sportsbooks agree—Bet365, Caesars, DraftKings, Hard Rock, Sleeper and others all have the under juiced—while nothing in the individual matchup with Lucas Giolito (career .273 average vs a .281 baseline) screams breakout. Harrelson expects another one-or-zero-base day and is locking in the under before first pitch.

Kenny G leaned to the Red Sox at +112, arguing that Hunter Brown’s recent dip in form makes Houston too expensive. Brown is still 9-5 with a 2.54 ERA, but Kenny pointed out he has been hittable over the last month and young arms often tail off late in the season. Boston’s bullpen, currently grading top-three in MLB by ERA, can cover a bullpen game if manager Alex Cora goes that route, so the lack of a listed starter is not a concern. Offensively, Boston has scored 13, 8, 4, 4, 4 and 2 runs during a 4-1 stretch and ranks eighth in OBP and fourth in runs. Fenway has also been kind: 34-21 straight-up and 30-23-2 to the under. With Houston only 27-23 on the road and 24-21-5 to the under, Kenny thinks the market is still pricing the Astros like the 2023 juggernaut and sees value grabbing the plus money on the Sox.