Kenny G made Detroit –285 his “lock of the day,” riding Tarik Skubal’s Cy-Young-caliber form. Skubal is 9-2 with a 2.92 ERA and, despite allowing 4 ER to Oakland last time out, still boasts a 2.52 FIP and top-15 strikeout minus walk rate. He draws a Twins offense that sits 22nd in batting average and 19th in OBP and has scored five runs or fewer in five of its last six. Minnesota counters with Chris Paddack (3-6, 4.64 ERA) whose last three starts have yielded 4, 4, and 8 earned runs; his four-seamer has lost a full tick of velocity, hinting at possible health issues. The Twins bullpen has fallen back to a 4.37 ERA while Detroit’s relief unit holds a respectable 3.74. Home/road splits reinforce the edge: the Tigers are 28-13 at Comerica; Minnesota is just 17-25 away from Target Field. Detroit’s bats have become legitimately dangerous—4th in MLB in runs scored and hitting .253 as a team. Kenny trusts Skubal to shove for six-plus innings, expects enough run support against the struggling Paddack, and is willing to eat the heavy price because he pegs Detroit’s win probability north of 75%.

For ESPN’s Sunday night showcase, Martin wants to ride Detroit and will likely play the –1 run line to cut juice. The Tigers are 51-31 overall and 28-13 at Comerica Park. Staff ace Tarik Skubal (9-2, sub-2.30 ERA) has won four straight starts, while Minnesota counters with Chris Paddack, who has been rocked for 16 earned and 23 hits across his last three outings. Martin also pointed out the Twins’ bullpen has cratered over the past month. Given Detroit’s home dominance, current form, and pitching edge, he recommends backing the Tigers and fading Paddack.

Bill Harrelson’s bonus play is Brooks Lee over 0.5 total bases. Lee has recorded at least one base in nine of his last ten, 19 of his last twenty, and six of eight matchups with Detroit. Since May 28 he has missed just once, and he’s on a 16-game road streak of cashing this prop. Overall, Lee has eclipsed the line in 46 of 64 games (72%). Although the market is juiced, Harrelson views the consistency and matchup with the Tigers’ middling staff as worth the premium.

Matt Perrault laid out a run-line bet on Detroit largely because of Tarik Skubal’s current heater. Skubal owns a 2.30 ERA overall and is 7-0 at Comerica Park with opponents hitting just .213 against him (15 ER in 58.2 IP). Detroit has won each of his last four starts by more than one run, and the club’s broader pattern since 4 June is boom-or-bust: every Tigers victory in that span has cashed the −1.5 RL while losses have come outright. Perrault contrasted Skubal with Minnesota starter Chris Paddack and noted Skubal’s only home loss came two months ago versus Kansas City. With the market offering Detroit −1.5 at −125 despite a game total of seven, Perrault is comfortable swallowing juice on a home run-line play, projecting another multi-run win for the Tigers.

Scott Reichel targeted Kerry Carpenter’s home-run prop versus Bailey Ober, calling it the best way to monetize Ober’s current meltdown. Ober has surrendered 10 homers across his last four starts—eight in the past three alone—and left-handed bats own the bulk of that damage. Even though Carpenter is just 1-for-10 lifetime against Ober, Reichel noted that Carpenter’s power plays up at Comerica (10 of his 14 bombs there last season) and that Ober’s four-seam command has completely deserted him, with a 46% hard-hit rate during this skid. Carpenter’s underlying swing metrics (17.8% barrel rate in June) give Reichel confidence the poor head-to-head sample is noise. With Ober in “absolute freefall,” Reichel expects at least one mistake up in the zone and is betting Carpenter to leave the yard at +425 or better.

Scott Reichel advised backing Detroit –1.5 at +135 behind Casey Mize. Mize is 7-2 with a 2.88 ERA overall and a sparkling 1.84 ERA at Comerica Park, while the Tigers are 28-13 at home. Bailey Ober has cratered, surrendering 23 earned runs and 10 homers in his last four outings, and the Twins are just 17-25 on the road. Reichel called Ober an auto-fade right now and expects Detroit’s bats to exploit his home-run problem, giving Mize plenty of cushion.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Detroit on the money line. Casey Mize’s splitter-heavy arsenal has produced steady groundballs, while Bailey Ober is reeling—yielding 7, 4, 7 and 5 earned runs in his last four starts. The Twins’ staff has allowed 6.6 runs per game over the past 10, whereas Detroit owns a 51-31 record and applies pressure to faltering pitchers at spacious Comerica. With the Tigers the more consistent club and holding home-field edge, the tout believes Detroit is the right side.

Kenny G leaned toward the Tigers at –145 behind Casey Mize. Mize is 7-2 with a 2.88 ERA and has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts, including five innings of one-run ball versus the surging Rays. On the opposite mound Bailey Ober is spiraling, sporting a 4.90 ERA and coming off four consecutive rough outings—the latest a seven-run, three-homer disaster versus Seattle. Minnesota’s bullpen has cratered to a 4.33 ERA, and its offense ranks no better than middle of the pack (20th OBP, 15th runs). Detroit, meanwhile, owns a 28-13 home record, a 3.69 bullpen ERA, and sits fourth in MLB in runs scored with a .254 team average. Kenny expects the Tigers to bounce back from their series-opening loss and capitalize on Ober’s struggles.

The Bettor Mark backed Casey Mize and the Tigers at ‑1.5 (+135). Mize enters at 7-2 with a sub-3.00 ERA, and Mark believes his ground-ball profile matches up well against a Twins lineup that has surrendered runs in bunches all season (40-42 record, bottom-10 bullpen ERA). Bailey Ober’s rising HR/9 and 5.05 road ERA make him a fade candidate. Mark added that Mize to record the win is worth a sprinkle because Detroit’s bullpen has been stable in games Mize starts.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended Detroit to win and cover, highlighting the matchup edge versus struggling Twins swing-man Festa (14 ER last three starts, 12 ER in two road turns). Detroit owns a .271 AVG and .780 OPS against right-handers and has beaten Minnesota by an average of 4.4 runs across the last five victories. Minnesota endured a 4-hour rain delay Thursday, arrived late, and still hasn’t confirmed a starter; if they use a bullpen game, Festa is expected to log the bulk despite a 10.00 ERA over his last 18 IP with multiple walks each outing. Meanwhile rookie Jipson Long has a 2-run, six-inning home start on his resume and faces a Twins lineup slashing just .228/.303/.379 over the past 10 days. All signs point to Detroit jumping out early and cashing the run-line.

Eric Lindquist recommended the Tigers moneyline versus his hometown Twins. He expects Sawyer Gipson-Long to give Detroit four to five competent innings before handing things to a rested bullpen. Minnesota just slogged through a 4½-hour rain delay and burnt relievers in back-to-back games with Seattle, factors Lindquist thinks will show up late. Although the Twins have taken two straight, he still questions their offensive consistency, whereas Detroit—"first to 50 wins," as he noted—has been the steadier club. The play is simply trusting the Tigers to outlast an over-extended Minnesota staff.

The tout flagged Riley Greene as another hot hand worth a hit or total-bases play. Greene is 3-for-5 with a homer (.600) off David Festa and has produced hits in eight of his last 10 contests, reinforcing confidence in the matchup.