John Middlekauff advised grabbing Tennessee +5.5 against the visiting Rams. He insisted the Titans "aren’t bad" and said the number is inflated because L.A. looked good in Week 1. Middlekauff’s core angle is the classic West-Coast-team-flying-east fade: the Rams must cross four time zones for a 10 a.m. body-clock kickoff after an emotional win, a spot he claims consistently produces flat starts. With Tennessee at home and catching more than a field goal, he expects a slugfest that could be tied entering the fourth quarter. While he would sprinkle the moneyline, Middlekauff called the points the smarter investment.

Middlekauff said the Chiefs’ biggest offensive issue is that Travis Kelce "is nowhere near what he once was." Now in his mid-30s with 15 years of NFL mileage, Kelce’s game is no longer built on explosion; he is finally “coverable.” Kansas City’s two most talented wideouts are unavailable—first-rounder Xavier Worthy left early with an injury and Rashee Rice is suspended—allowing defenses to bracket Kelce without fear. Middlekauff expects production to lean on Andy Reid’s scheme rather than Kelce’s athletic dominance, advising fantasy players to downgrade him from set-and-forget TE1 status and avoid overpaying in DFS until he shows renewed burst.

John Middlekauff said Tyreek Hill’s real-world value has fallen far faster than the public realizes. He compared Hill to an aging NBA star whose name recognition obscures declining trade leverage: the contract is massive, the soon-to-be-31-year-old speedster is nearing the athletic cliff, and a fresh round of domestic-violence headlines only tightens the market. Middlekauff believes NFL front offices would only bite if Miami ate salary and accepted late-round compensation, a signal that fantasy and dynasty managers should explore sell-high windows before perception finally catches up to reality.

Middlekauff circled Tennessee as a sleeper to flirt with .500 or better at long odds. He believes last year’s roster was "solid" but submarined by "atrocious" quarterback play. If rookie Cam Ward merely grades out as the league’s 15th-best passer—he compared Ward’s college dominance to pre-NFL Jayden Daniels—then eight wins and wild-card contention are realistic. He also noted quotes from the building that Ward has impressed veterans and coaches, plus an underrated defense that quietly kept games close in 2024 despite zero offensive help. In a division he already called weak, Middlekauff thinks the Titans are mis-priced.

Middlekauff is aggressively fading Miami, saying "I think they're going to stink." He sees head coach Mike McDaniel already looking "ready to get fired" due to constant injuries and roster holes left by the front office. Chemistry concerns between Tyreek Hill and Tua Tagovailoa and the perennial "two-injuries-away" fragility amplify the downside. Middlekauff even questioned whether the job will attract top coaching candidates next offseason, framing the organization as unstable despite the attractive South Florida market and deep-pocketed ownership.

Middlekauff advised fading Cincinnati in title futures, likening them to a high-powered college offense that cannot stop anyone. He cited a stat showing Trey Hendrickson produced 48 % of the Bengals’ sacks last season—roughly 15 percentage points higher dependency than any other NFL pass-rusher—leaving the defense "below average" if Hendrickson regresses or misses time. He quipped Washington would hang "500 yards" on them if both sides played hard, and sees a 9- or 10-win ceiling that is insufficient for deep playoff runs despite Joe Burrow’s brilliance.

Middlekauff does not view San Francisco as a true Super Bowl threat and projects them to finish around 10 victories—below the 10.5 market win total Joe Osborne referenced. His reasoning: the 49ers lead the league in injuries under Kyle Shanahan, regularly cycling through “backups to backups.” Even with Robert Saleh returning to run the defense and an easy schedule, Middlekauff doubts their aging, injury-prone core can stay intact long enough to host playoff games. He specifically flagged Week 1 at Seattle as a likely early stumble for what he called an already undermanned roster.

John Middlekauff called the Texans a “stone-cold lock” to win the AFC South at +105. His scouting contacts believe DeMeco Ryans’ unit could legitimately finish as the league’s No. 1 defense after adding another year of growth for Will Anderson, Derek Stingley and the rest of a young core. Middlekauff argued the Texans own the only trustworthy coach–quarterback pairing in the division, with C.J. Stroud already coming off 10 wins and now projecting for “12-ish.” He dismissed divisional competition: the Colts are, in his words, an “embarrassment” at quarterback, the Jaguars remain “untrustworthy,” and the Titans offer “no threat.” With an improved offensive line and full off-season continuity in the play-calling, Middlekauff is comfortable betting Houston to three-peat in the division and flirt with the conference’s top seed.

John Middlekauff told bettors to smash the ‘Top 10 Pick’ market on Ashton Jeanty and even sprinkle the +800 Raider‑at‑6 exacta. He believes Jeanty capitalizes on a thin overall board the same way Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson leveraged elite traits into early selections. Middlekauff called Jeanty one of only three non‑quarterbacks with blue‑chip tape in this class—grouping him with Olu Fashanu and Travis Hunter—and said that makes it easy for GMs to talk themselves into a running back despite the position’s devaluation. The former Eagles scout acknowledged the 5‑8 frame raises durability flags but countered with Jeanty’s explosive Boise State film, spotless character grades and multi‑year production that scouts have "loved for two years." With organizations such as Las Vegas (pick 6) and Seattle (pick 7) craving offensive firepower and the draft lacking surefire defensive stars, Middlekauff sees a clear path for Jeanty to crash the top 10 and thinks any number longer than +150 is stealing.

John Middlekauff advised taking the over on Shedeur Sanders’ draft‑slot prop (currently 8.5 at most books) and sprinkling on any market that prices him as the second quarterback selected. Middlekauff argued the 2025 class lacks a consensus ‘can’t‑miss’ passer, so front‑office grades will be wildly scattered—exactly the landscape that produced Aaron Rodgers’ and Johnny Manziel’s infamous green‑room slides. He noted that while Sanders’ brand power is enormous—Deion’s son, Heisman buzz, massive TV numbers—the actual scouting feedback paints him as one of several tier‑two options behind a thin top shelf. Middlekauff’s league contacts say at least three clubs prefer the Louisville transfer and Jackson Dart in head‑to‑head evaluations, and several picking inside the top 10 simply do not need a quarterback. With New Orleans’ pick at No. 9 the first realistic landing spot, Middlekauff sees more downside than upside at the current plus‑125 favorite price and expects a realistic fall into the teens or even the back half of Round 1.

John Middlekauff said he is hammering Tennessee’s season‑win total over 5.5 now that Cam Ward is a near‑certain No. 1 overall pick. Middlekauff believes Ward’s big‑arm, off‑script skill set is a massive upgrade from the Will Levis–Ryan Tannehill carousel that produced the NFL’s 31st‑ranked offense. He pointed to Brian Callahan’s pass‑friendly scheme and a quietly solid Titans defense that finished 12th in DVOA against the run as reasons six or seven wins are realistic in an AFC South he called “pretty crappy.” With Ward’s mobility masking a shaky offensive line and Tennessee likely to add another receiver on Day 2, Middlekauff views the 5.5 line as a full win too low.