Iain MacMillan urged readers to sprinkle on Austin Smotherman at a massive +25000 number with Caesars. Smotherman led last week's American Express field in true strokes-gained approach (+2.60 per round) and strokes-gained tee-to-green (+3.95) over his two rounds at the Stadium Course, ultimately finishing T8 despite a cold putter. MacMillan points to that elite ball-striking and reminds bettors Smotherman finished T11 at the 2022 Farmers, proving he can handle Torrey Pines. With demonstrated upside and course history, MacMillan says the 250-1 price more than compensates for volatile putting and is worth a flier.

Banking on elite ball-striking, Coley allocated 1 point each-way to Austin Smotherman at 225/1. The Californian ranked 1st in SG:Approach and SG:Tee-to-Green across 36 measured holes at last week’s AmEx and already owns an 11th at Torrey (2022) built on a 66 on the South Course. Smotherman’s Korn Ferry résumé includes three wins, and Coley notes that Luke List and Will Zalatoris proved you can contend here without a hot putter. Smotherman’s historical comfort on poa annua plus Torrey’s demand for long, straight driving place him ‘at the most suitable course he’ll see all year.’ If the putter merely breaks even, Coley sees top-8 equity well above the posted price.