Malaro said the only thing worth touching in Gutierrez-Castaneda is the fight-goes-the-distance/over 2.5 rounds, calling it a "15-minute sparring session." He reminded listeners that every one of Chris Gutierrez’s last four bouts—against Daniel Marcos, Kang Kyung-ho and Said Nurmagomedov replacement Alateng Gafurov—hit the cards because Gutierrez lands a low-risk leg kick, waits 15–20 seconds, then resets range. Castaneda typically responds with half-committed clinch entries rather than power exchanges, further killing finish equity. With neither man averaging even one knockdown per 15 minutes and Gutierrez owning a 92 percent takedown-defense rate, Malaro expects another slow, cage-cutting kickboxing match that reaches the scorecards well over 70 percent of the time. At –190, he is comfortable using the distance prop as a parlay anchor instead of guessing which volume-averse bantamweight edges the split.

Matty Betss said he is "done with this matchup" after three separate re-bookings but still trusts Chris Gutierrez to kick his way to a 30-27 type decision. He emphasized Gutierrez’s elite range management and calf-kick volume that forces opponents to abandon pressure, while John Castaneda’s clearest path is to mix takedowns—something he has not shown he can do consistently at the UFC level. Because the money-line sits north of –180, Matty prefers the winning-method props he called a “binary” approach: Gutierrez by KO is +700 if the leg damage snowballs, Castaneda by submission is +1200 if he wrestles early. For bettors who agree with Matty’s read that Gutierrez dances outside for three rounds, the Decision line is the safest—but he warned the price is so short he is only using it sparingly in small parlay ‘cycle’ legs.

The Weasle backed Chris Gutierrez to win a decision over John Castaneda, stressing that 70-percent of Gutierrez’s offense comes via powerful kicks. Because Castaneda rarely maintains forward pressure, the tout expects Gutierrez to dictate range, rack up calf- and body-kicks and bank octagon-control minutes. Gutierrez’s jab and lateral footwork should help him reset to center—something he did repeatedly against Quang Li—while Castaneda’s best path (constant pressure and pocket exchanges) is one the Mexican-American seldom commits to for three full rounds. Although Gutierrez’s occasional low output is a concern, The Weasle believes his kick-heavy attack and movement will carry two of three scorecards.

Revisiting the re‑booked matchup, Kunath doubled down on Chris Gutierrez to win a comfortable decision. Gutierrez lands 2.6 leg kicks per minute—most in the division—and those calf kicks will hamper Castaneda’s explosive level‑changes. Castaneda is stepping in on short notice after prepping for Daniel da Silva, so his game plan is wrestling‑heavy. Kunath cited Gutierrez’s 72% takedown defense and slick switch‑hips as reasons the takedown wall will hold. Once Castaneda’s lead leg is compromised, Gutierrez’s jab‑into‑spinning‑back‑fist combo should rack up optics and damage. Recommendation: Gutierrez moneyline parlay piece and Gutierrez by decision (+110) with moderate DFS exposure for steady volume over 15 minutes.