Sean Zerillo advised taking a small swing on Kai Kara-France in two ways: a straight money-line ticket at +185 (he made the fight +170) and, more importantly, the KO/TKO prop down to +550 (he modeled it +500). Zerillo pointed to Kara-France’s elite first-layer takedown defense (88% overall, 44 of 50 attempts stuffed) that could keep the bout standing early. On the feet, Kara-France lands 1.2 more strikes per minute than his opponents, while Pantoja is barely positive (+0.3) and posts a leaky 61% defensive striking rate. Zerillo also noted the age and mileage gap: Pantoja is now 35 and has absorbed far more head trauma, yet has never faced a true flyweight knockout artist since moving into five-round fights. Kara-France’s speed and precision combinations, not raw power, are what surprise opponents, and Zerillo believes one clean shot can finally crack the champion’s legendary chin. He called the matchup “binary striker vs grappler” and expects judges to favor Kara-France’s optics whenever the fight is upright, but sees the clearest path to cashing via a knockout before extended grappling can occur.

Ricardo Lamas likes Kai Kara-France at +200, arguing the rematch is far closer than markets imply. He noted that Kara-France has spent the last nine years under Eugene Bareman at City Kickboxing, shoring up his wrestling and stuffing several Pantoja shots late in their Ultimate Fighter bout. Lamas emphasized Kara-France’s one-punch power and Pantoja’s willingness to eat clean strikes—Pantoja is hit on 46% of head attempts, one of the worst marks among ranked flyweights. If Kara-France can keep the fight upright early, Lamas believes Pantoja’s smaller frame and hittability create knockout opportunities. Even if takedowns come later, Lamas expects Kara-France to bank early damage on the cards and turn this into a coin-flip, making the +200 price a strong value play.

VSIN Host called Kai Kara-France his "dark horse" of the card and is taking the +200 money-line. In his model, the fight is a virtual coin-flip, giving Kara-France a hair over 50 % win probability. The edge comes from several data points: Kara-France averages twice as many knockdowns as Alexandre Pantoja, carries noticeably more one-punch power, and is the younger, rangier fighter. Meanwhile, Pantoja’s head-strike defence is a glaring liability—he absorbs clean shots far too often, which is dangerous against a power hitter who is willing to throw in volume. Because the host sees real finishing upside and physical advantages, he believes the current plus-money tag is mis-priced value.

Sniper cannot pick Kai Kara-France outright but still wants exposure to the $7,200 challenger as a contrarian GPP run-back. KKF owns real flyweight knockout power—he has dropped multiple opponents and flat-lined former bantamweight champ Cody Garbrandt—and Alexandre Pantoja absorbs 4.0 significant strikes per minute, leaving windows to land the fight-changing right hand. With managers jamming expensive studs like Jacobe Smith, KKF provides the perfect salary relief; any upset victory would rocket him into the optimal lineup. Sniper is keeping KKF shares in multi-entry tournaments, noting this co-main is more “stackable” than the main event because the over-3.5 sits at minus money and both fighters throw at high volume.