Sean Zerillo bet Calvin Kattar at –110 (playable to –120) and paired him with Fight-Goes-the-Distance at +190 in a same-game parlay. Zerillo’s model makes Kattar –120 straight and prices GTD at –114, so the combo creates what he views as a +EV correlated play: Kattar wins a decision roughly one-third of the time. The logic: Kattar has never been knocked down in 17 UFC bouts, owns superior pocket boxing and a more varied striking arsenal, and carries unexpected takedown upside (he used early top control to beat Giga Chikadze and could duplicate that against Garcia, who has surrendered 3+ minutes of control in multiple fights). Garcia is riding five straight KOs, a streak Zerillo believes is inflating his market price and due for regression. He also pointed to Garcia’s knockdowns versus Maheshate and Shayilan, evidence the taller fighter’s chin is less bankable than Kattar’s. Given the stylistic expectation of a phone-booth boxing match with limited ground exchanges, Zerillo sees Kattar’s durability and potential wrestling as the tiebreakers in a fight he projects to reach the cards over 54% of the time.

Sean Zerillo grabbed Valter Walker at +185 (playable to +170) and paired it with Walker-by-Submission at +650, calling the Brazilian’s mat game a nightmare for the taller but upright Kennedy Nzechukwu. Walker averages six takedown attempts per five minutes of distance time and converts 94 % of his dominant ground positions into extended control. Kennedy owns an 83 % initial sprawl rate yet surrenders control half the time when fights do hit the floor—exactly where Walker excels. Zerillo highlighted that Walker weighed in at 244.5 pounds, giving him a small size edge while still looking nimble, whereas Kennedy added weight more gradually and may not hold the same top-side strength. On the feet, Kennedy’s five-inch reach and cleaner kickboxing win minutes, but Zerillo sees little knockout danger from the Nigerian; the decisive sequences come if Walker drags him down. Because Walker’s last two wins were by heel hook, Zerillo believes the sub represents a larger slice of his win condition than books imply. He also played Fight Inside the Distance at –150, projecting it closer to –175 given binary paths: Kennedy KO/TKO on the feet or Walker finish on the mat.

Sean Zerillo argued there is value on Austen Lane around +500 against Vitor Petrino, branding Petrino a "fraudulent" favorite whose UFC resume is shaky. Petrino failed to finish Tyson Pedro, was KO’d by Justin Jacoby, and even trailed Marcin Prachnio before salvaging a late stoppage. Now he is jumping to heavyweight where Lane, a former NFL defensive end, will be four inches taller with a three-inch reach edge. Zerillo concedes Lane is no world-beater but thinks the size disparity, Petrino’s suspect durability, and an historically generous heavyweight upset rate justify a small wager on the massive moneyline.

Sean Zerillo recommended betting Gabriel Bonfim to win in Round 1 or Round 2 at +125. Bonfim is 14 years younger, a notoriously fast starter, and owns a reliable club-and-sub skill set—hurts foes on the feet, then instantly jumps on submissions. Thompson has been taken down in five straight fights, is 1-4 over that span (the lone win aided by Kevin Holland ignoring grappling), and just turned 42. Zerillo believes Bonfim’s early pressure and willingness to transition to submissions after knockdowns make the R1/R2 window the sweet spot. He also sees hidden value on Bonfim KO because the market leans too heavily toward submission, but the safest route is the combined R1/R2 prop. If the veteran survives the opening frame, Zerillo will consider a live hedge on Wonderboy, but pre-fight action is squarely on Bonfim early.

Sean Zerillo said the best way to attack the main event is a same-game parlay built around Talison Tashara winning and the fight lasting at least 2:30. He played Tashara moneyline with the over 0.5 round at –116 and suggested sweetening it by adding under 4.5 rounds to push the price into plus money. Zerillo’s logic: the 14-year age gap strongly favors the 29-year-old Tashara (fighters that much younger win 77% of the time at an implied –335 clip). Tashara is four inches taller, carries a four-inch reach edge, and is the far superior athlete, while Lewis is 14½ years older and often fades when opponents punish his body and legs. Zerillo expects Tashara to start measured, clinch, work knees to the mid-section, and secure a finish late R1 or early R2. He is comfortable parlaying Tashara up to –300 on the straight moneyline but prefers the SGP for value.

Sean Zerillo said he grabbed Beneil Dariush at +118 early in the week and would still lay up to –115 now. Zerillo’s core angle is that Dariush only loses to single-shot knockout artists—his last three defeats came via first-round bombs from Arman Tsarukyan, Charles Oliveira and Alexander Hernandez—while Renato Moicano owns just one UFC knockdown and none since moving to lightweight. With Moicano unlikely to find that chin-checking moment, Zerillo expects Dariush’s elite wrestling (3.7 takedowns per 15 minutes) to bank rounds just as Islam Makhachev and Rafael dos Anjos did against Moicano. He is pairing the money-line with time props such as Dariush & Over 1.5, Dariush Round 3/Decision, and even simple fight overs, arguing the only fast finish scenario is a low-probability Moicano KO. Zerillo views the archetype matchup as perfect for Dariush and is comfortable stacking ML tickets with moderate-length overs to juice the payout.

Sean Zerillo and Billy Ward made Beneil Dariush their co-signed best bet, recommending Dariush down to –115 and Fight Goes to Decision at plus money (+110). Zerillo projects the fight 60% to see the cards, citing that both 36-year-olds average exactly one significant strike landed per minute at distance, neutralizing each other on the feet. He gives Moicano the cleaner boxing and better pure BJJ but says Dariush’s 3.7 takedowns per 15 minutes and 82% top-control rate make him the more proactive wrestler and the man likelier to bank rounds with positional dominance. Both fighters have shown chin concerns lately, yet Zerillo believes they cancel out because neither carries one-shot power at this stage. A wrestling-heavy, grinding battle should tilt the judges toward Dariush while cashing the decision line for bettors.

Sean Zerillo prices Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues at –260 but bettors can still find –192 to –200, which he calls fair up to –225. Rodrigues is two inches taller and carries the kind of pocket power Jack Hermansson cannot match. Zerillo is not worried about Hermansson’s jab-and-kick range game because the Norwegian lacks knockout pop, meaning Rodrigues can march inside and force exchanges. Hermansson owns excellent first-layer takedown defense, so Zerillo expects a striking-heavy fight where Rodrigues’ pressure and durability shine. Because 12 of Rodrigues’ 15 UFC bouts have ended inside the distance, Zerillo is also adding his Inside-the-Distance prop at +140 (projected +135) as a correlated kicker in case Robocop hurts or melts Hermansson before cardio becomes a concern.

Sean Zerillo is targeting Peyton Talbot by decision at +470, calling it a pure value play. Talbot stands four inches taller with a two-inch reach edge and historically throws more volume than Felipe Lima, who relies on single-shot power and rarely initiates grappling. Zerillo grades Lima as the more well-rounded prospect long-term but notes he lost Round 1 to Muhammad Mokaev and was in a 50-50 Round 2 before finding the finish. If Lima does not wrestle proactively, Zerillo expects strike counts to be nearly even or favor Talbot, making a 15-minute fight lean Talbot. He projects the bout –140 to go the distance (market –150) and prices Talbot decision around +375, giving bettors roughly an 18% implied edge at current odds.

Sean Zerillo plans to pounce on Viacheslav "Slava Clauss" Borshchev the moment Terence McKinney’s inevitable early storm subsides. McKinney has finished 15 of 16 wins inside the first round (longest UFC win: 2:17) but gasses badly whenever an opponent survives. Borshchev owns a shaky 43% takedown defense yet has never been knocked out and typically rallies once he finds striking distance. Zerillo advised having the live-bet window open because the fight may not reach the horn; any McKinney knockdown or dominant grappling exchange should balloon Slava’s price well above the pre-fight +150. For those needing pre-fight action, Zerillo likes Borshchev in round 2 (+750) and round 3 (16-to-1), arguing those markets capture the most likely comeback narrative: McKinney dominates the first three minutes, starts to fade, and gets finished by body work or a head-shot as fatigue sets in.

Sean Zerillo labeled Viviane Araujo a live underdog at +210 in a women’s flyweight match he expects to hit the cards (-600 to go to decision). Araujo is the larger athlete with a three-inch reach advantage and throws more volume at distance (5.6 significant strikes landed per minute vs. 5.0 for Cortez). Although Cortez is the cleaner boxer by differential (+0.5 per minute), she never pushes pace, which mitigates Araujo’s well-known cardio fade after round one. Zerillo noted both women attempt takedowns at similar rates, but Araujo owns the better defensive mark and should be at least as likely to secure top position. He thinks Araujo wins the first 10 minutes on activity and physicality, leaving judges to decide whether Cortez’s probable late control outweighs that work. Because of the divisional tendency for tight scorecards and the durable profiles of both fighters, Zerillo is simply taking the plus-money side on the money-line and hoping the judges reward Araujo’s early output.

Sean Zerillo advised taking a small swing on Kai Kara-France in two ways: a straight money-line ticket at +185 (he made the fight +170) and, more importantly, the KO/TKO prop down to +550 (he modeled it +500). Zerillo pointed to Kara-France’s elite first-layer takedown defense (88% overall, 44 of 50 attempts stuffed) that could keep the bout standing early. On the feet, Kara-France lands 1.2 more strikes per minute than his opponents, while Pantoja is barely positive (+0.3) and posts a leaky 61% defensive striking rate. Zerillo also noted the age and mileage gap: Pantoja is now 35 and has absorbed far more head trauma, yet has never faced a true flyweight knockout artist since moving into five-round fights. Kara-France’s speed and precision combinations, not raw power, are what surprise opponents, and Zerillo believes one clean shot can finally crack the champion’s legendary chin. He called the matchup “binary striker vs grappler” and expects judges to favor Kara-France’s optics whenever the fight is upright, but sees the clearest path to cashing via a knockout before extended grappling can occur.

Sean Zerillo said he is betting Ilia Topuria to win quickly and is attacking a ladder of unders rather than a specific KO prop. Zerillo highlighted several data points: Oliveira has only a 49% striking defense compared with Topuria’s 64%, and Oliveira has been knocked down early in recent fights by Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje, and Michael Chandler. Topuria, who has already carried his power up to 155 pounds in a previous fight, brings both a durability and speed edge. Zerillo believes Oliveira’s guard game actually encourages knockdowns, making a first-exchange finish very live. Because Topuria may try to prove a point and hunt a "club-and-sub" submission, Zerillo prefers broad time-based bets: Under 0.5 rounds (+475), Under 1.5 rounds (+130), and Under 2.5 rounds (-128). He expects any of those tickets to cash if Topuria’s power shows up immediately.

Zerillo grabbed Over 9.5 (would play Over 10 to –105) in Twins-A’s at Sutter Health Park, making the game 10.3 runs once he layers in hitter-friendly variables. Sacramento’s minor-league yard is already inflating power numbers and Tuesday brings 83-degree temps with a 10-mph breeze out to left. Umpire Alfonso Marquez is another boost; his career 53% over rate and +3% run-environment delta nudged Zerillo’s projection up almost a half-run. The pitching matchup screams offense too. Oakland opener/long-man Jacob Lopez owns no pitch above a 93 Stuff+ and carries a 3.90 xERA across two starts plus relief work; Stuff-model grades label him a “gas can.” He rarely tops five innings, meaning an early-door bullpen game for an A’s relief corps that ranks bottom-five in xFIP. On the other side, Pablo Lopez is surrendering more air contact than ever (ground-ball rate below 40%) and historically struggles in heat and humidity, evidenced by the homer spike he showed in Tampa. Zerillo believes the market is still hanging outdated 9.5s at a park whose totals routinely close 10. He will keep ‘banging the over’ until books adjust, recommending Over 9.5 to –120 or Over 10 to –105.

Sean Zerillo went back to the well on the Mets-Dodgers over, this time endorsing the full-game total at 9.5 (even money or better). He has trimmed his league-wide scoring baseline because drag-coefficient data shows MLB is using a de-juiced baseball, yet he still projects 9.75 runs here. Kershaw’s stuff and command erosion remains a big driver—Stuff+ has cratered to 92 after sitting 109 and 102 the past two seasons, while Location+ has dipped to 90 from the mid-90s range—so Zerillo expects plenty of early traffic. The larger edge, though, comes from bullpen exhaustion on both sides: • Mets burned seven relievers last night, including closer Edwin Diaz in three of the past four days and lefty Jose Castillo for an ineffective 15-pitch cameo. • Dodgers leaned heavily on their ‘pen as well; C.B. Ferguson threw 32 pitches and their only rested leverage arm is Brusdar Graterol. Top setup men Tanner Scott (MIA series) and Diaz likely sit, leaving familiar lineups to tee off on depth arms they have already seen multiple times this year. Zerillo recalled that every game of last year’s NLCS cleared the total and thinks these clubs’ hitter familiarity overrides the slightly heavier ball. He will play Over 9.5 to +100 and considers 9 a “must bet” number if it re-appears.

Zerillo bet Mets-Dodgers over 9, noting every 2024 Clayton Kershaw start has sailed past the total (final scores 20, 12 and 11). Under the hood Kershaw is a mess: Stuff+ down to 92 from 109-102 the past two years, Location+ down to 90, and a 6.12 batted-ball ERA last outing despite giving up only one earned run on the surface. With Los Angeles desperate for innings, the veteran is being left out there even as hard contact piles up. Weather is neutral (65° with light breeze out), but Zerillo projects the game closer to 9.8 runs and will play the over to 9.5 at plus money if the total ticks up.

Zerillo makes Cincinnati a -130 favorite and is betting the Reds at -120 or better with Hunter Greene opposing Freddy Peralta. Even with recent pitch-count limits after a groin strain, Greene’s underlying numbers crush Peralta’s: 2.75 xERA vs 3.63, 25% vs 14% K-BB rate, and a 30% called-strike-plus-whiff rate versus Peralta’s career-low 26%. Peralta’s fastball command issues have pushed both his CSW and K-BB to their worst marks ever, while Greene’s velocity and pitch modeling remain stable. Zerillo assumes Greene is physically fine based on those metrics and will wait for a price dip if early steam pushes Cincinnati higher than -120.

Sean Zerillo bet the Rockies-Marlins under 8.5 (would play 8 at even money) but said the wager hinges on Chase Dollander actually starting for Colorado. Zerillo’s model makes the total 7.75 with Dollander on the road because the rookie shows a 19% K-BB rate and 3.46 xFIP away from Coors versus a 4.5% K-BB and 5.80 xFIP at home. On the Miami side he sees buy-low upside in Sandy Alcantara despite the ugly 8.50 ERA. Alcantara’s Stuff+ sits at 108 (essentially back to pre-injury 110), while his Location+ has improved from 92 to 98 over his last three outings, dropping his batted-ball ERA from 4.16 to 3.60. Zerillo believes command is finally catching up after Tommy John and projects Alcantara as a mid-3s ERA arm going forward. If Dollander is scratched for Tanner Gordon or another arm, Zerillo plans to buy out because much of the edge disappears.

Sean Zerillo advised bettors to quit shorting Lance McCullers Jr. because the right-hander’s pitch models show a sharp upward trend since returning from the IL. McCullers opened the season with 97, 87 and 97 Stuff+ marks, but has popped 105 and 115 in his last two starts. His batted-ball ERA has fallen from 5.45 to 3.24 and then 2.82 across that stretch. Zerillo expects continued improvement as the veteran regains full arm strength and said any price fading Houston simply because of McCullers’ early surface numbers is now stale value.

Sean Zerillo made Toronto his favorite plus-money play of the day, grabbing the Blue Jays at +120 or better against Philadelphia. Zerillo acknowledged Chris Sanchez owns the starting-pitching edge but thinks the market is now pricing the left-hander as an ace even though he has issued 3-plus walks in four of his last six outings. He prefers Bowden Francis’ trend line—4.17 xFIP and a 16% K-BB rate in May after eliminating the early-season homer problem by cutting his fly-ball rate. Zerillo hammered the head-to-head mismatches everywhere else: Toronto’s bullpen ranks second in xFIP and first in K-BB% while the Phillies have fallen to 16th and 19th in those metrics since Jose Alvarado hit the IL. Defensively the gap is even wider (Jays 4th in DRS, 6th in OAA; Phillies 28th and 26th). Offensively the Jays sit fifth in wRC+ versus lefties, Philadelphia just 14th versus righties. After baking those splits into his model he made the game TOR +110 and said he could have justified the Jays as slight favorites. He is betting Toronto full-game moneyline down to +120 and expects to fire on them again later in the series if similar numbers pop.

Sean Zerillo doubled down on his earlier Yankees money-line recommendation, stressing how Carlos Rodon’s new sinker justifies laying a bigger price. New York’s staff added the pitch this spring and Rodon is using it 23% of the time to left-handed hitters (4% to righties). The sinker grades out at 104 Stuff+ and has pushed Rodon’s ground-ball rate up eight percentage points, helping drop his expected ERA back under 3.00 while keeping his HR/9 below 1. On the other side, Tanner Bibee’s four-seam Stuff+ has fallen from 92 to 86, and the pitch is getting torched for a .325 xBA, .580 xSLG and 1.7 homers per nine. New York owns MLB’s No. 1 offense by wRC+, ranks first in ISO and second in slugging, whereas Cleveland sits 19th and 22nd in those categories. Zerillo’s model makes the game Yankees ‑220; he is comfortable betting anything up to ‑200 or using the Bronx Bombers in parlays to about ‑210 even with Luke Weaver’s IL stint slightly thinning the bullpen.

Zerillo’s best bet for Tuesday is Yankees ‑185 over the Guardians. He is comfortable with the rare big-price lay because Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee has been tagged in two of his last three outings, posting an 8.31 ERA in those rough starts and seeing his hard-hit rate jump above 42%. New York’s lineup, meanwhile, owns the league’s No. 2 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching in the past month. Zerillo’s model makes the Yankees closer to ‑215, giving bettors roughly a 30-cent edge at current market numbers.

Zerillo flagged a 47-to-1 price on Baltimore to finish exactly as the AL’s No. 6 seed as the best way to attack their playoff case. The Orioles are only nine games out despite a miserable .381 winning percentage driven by a lineup performing at what he called its 10th-percentile projection. With Colton Cowser back and Jordan Westburg nearing a return, he expects the offense to climb toward a 55% win rate the rest of the way. Because their starting pitching is bad but unlikely to stay historically awful, Zerillo thinks Baltimore’s most realistic path is sneaking in as the final wild card; he noted straight playoff odds are just 18-1, making the 47-1 six-seed exacta the far superior risk-reward play.

Sean Zerillo endorsed Atlanta at +125 to reach the postseason, calling it a "pretty strong bet." He pointed out the Diamondbacks’ mounting rotation injuries—highlighting Corbin Burnes’ setback and Zac Gallen’s step back—as a key path-clearing development in the NL wild-card race. Zerillo expects the Braves, Mets and Phillies to cluster near 90 wins again, but believes Atlanta’s core and a fully-healthy Ronald Acuna Jr. give them the highest ceiling of that group. He projects the Braves to finish right around the 90-win mark needed for a berth and suggested bettors who want more upside sprinkle NL pennant (15-1) or World Series futures (~25-1) as well.

Zerillo grabbed the Athletics at +140 (good to +130) even though Oakland has dropped 15 of 16. He prices Minnesota at only -119. Joe Ryan owns the better underlying numbers (3.18 xERA, 26% K-BB) but remains homer-prone (career 1.40 HR/9) in a park boosting runs by 25% and homers by 18%. Luis Severino’s new sinker has curbed his own long-ball issues, a key fit for the Coliseum. Oakland’s offense is quietly legitimate—7th in MLB wRC+—while the Twins sit 19th. Minnesota’s bullpen is superior, but overall projection and matchup factors (park, offensive splits, Ryan’s fly-ball profile) make the home dog attractive at +130 or better.

Sean Zerillo bet the Angels moneyline at +135 (playable to +130), arguing Boston should be only -120 favorites. He pointed to the Red Sox’s 95 wRC+ since Alex Bregman hit the IL and their poor split versus left-handers (projected 97 wRC+ with only Rafael Devers, Rob Refsnyder, and rookie Kristian Campbell grading as above-average vs southpaws). Meanwhile, the Angels project for a 110 wRC+ versus righty Richard Fitts, with seven of nine hitters above league average, Logan O’Hoppe pacing for 30 HR (126 wRC+), Zach Neto posting 125 wRC+ with +3 DRS in 39 games, and Mike Trout returning and due for positive regression (.306 wOBA vs .372 xwOBA). Zerillo concedes Boston owns the pitching edge (Fitts 4.12 xERA vs Tyler Anderson 3.96 xERA but higher projected FIP) and the Angels bullpen is bottom-five by xFIP, yet notes Red Sox relievers have struggled over the last month. His model makes this a near coin-flip, creating value on the road dog.

Zerillo makes Toronto –110 behind Chris Bassitt’s rejuvenated arsenal and grabbed the Jays at +110, playable to even money. Bassitt has slashed his walk rate in half (4.5 %), posted a career-best 25 % strikeout rate, and coaxed chases 33 % of the time thanks to sharper slider locations. Meanwhile, San Diego’s lineup drops nearly 30 points of wRC+ against right-handers compared to lefties, and the Friars’ middle relief still ranks bottom-10 in both WHIP and xFIP. With projected pick-’em odds, Zerillo sees any plus-price as automatic value on Toronto.

Although he ultimately played only the total, Sean Zerillo said Pittsburgh is worth a look at +115 and would bet them down to +108. His model makes the game Pirates –101. The edge stems from Cincinnati’s bottom-five defense against lefties (wRC+ 80) and Martinez’s limited ceiling beyond six innings, while Falter benefits from Pittsburgh’s vastly improved defense. Zerillo suggests readers who want side action can fire on the Buccos provided the number stays in the double-digit plus range.

Sean Zerillo projected the Diamondbacks at +180 and therefore wants +200 or better before firing on their moneyline. The handicap is two-fold: Arizona just tagged Yoshinobu Yamamoto for five runs with only four strikeouts—both season-worst marks for the Japanese ace—and Zerillo thinks that outing was not a fluke. Yamamoto’s average fastball velocity has lost a full tick since April, his sinker is down 1.1 mph, his splitter almost two, and Pitching+ has dropped from 105 to 101. Meanwhile Bot-ERA has risen to 4.40. Injuries have gutted the Dodgers’ rotation depth, so Dave Roberts may have to push Yamamoto deeper than ideal. On Arizona’s side, Zerillo expects only 3–4 effective innings from Ryne Nelson before Torey Lovullo pieces together a bullpen game, but the plus-money cushion offsets that risk. He will not play the Snakes below +200 and still prefers the total, yet believes the number offers sufficient value if the market drifts that high.

Sean Zerillo advised abandoning any remaining Orioles futures, calling their 15-31 start “virtually no path back.” Baltimore is already 14 games under .500 and sits in a division where only the Yankees are above break-even, yet four AL Central clubs are over .500. Zerillo pointed to the Orioles’ paper-thin rotation, refusal to invest in multi-year pitching, and an offense that ranks near the bottom of every major category. With Brandon Hyde out and structural roster issues persisting, Zerillo believes any playoff or win-total tickets should be treated as dead money and sees value only in looking toward 2026 markets.

Sean Zerillo reiterated his interest in the Blue Jays moneyline but sharpened the angle: play the full game at even money or better rather than chasing a live price or the first-five inning line. Zerillo makes the full-game number Toronto –110 while his first-five projection is a true pick’em, so the larger theoretical edge sits after the bullpens get involved. He concedes Dylan Cease has rediscovered ace form (19 strikeouts over his last two starts after a nine-run outlier) but believes San Diego’s A-relievers create a bigger gap versus Toronto’s pen than Cease does versus a resurgent Chris Bassitt. Bassitt’s profile supports the bet: walk rate chopped in half to 4.5 %, strikeout rate up to a career-best 25 %, outside-swing rate up to 33 % (career 25 %), swinging-strike rate up to 11 %, and his Location+ has climbed back to 105, correlating with a 3.2 expected ERA. With Bassitt pitching at a career peak and the Jays still catching plus prices, Zerillo is comfortable firing pre-game and would not delay for an in-game number that likely appears only once San Diego’s elite bullpen has the leverage.

Sean Zerillo played the full-game under 9 because he believes Corbin’s new pitch mix plus two standout defenses can keep scoring in check. Since ditching his four-seamer 15 starts ago, Corbin owns a 3.98 ERA, 4.26 FIP, and 3.94 xFIP with a 13.7% K-BB%—all far better than his replacement-level numbers from 2021-23. Pitching+ rates him at 102 this season, the first time he has graded above 100. Texas ranks 1st in Defensive Runs Saved and 4th in Outs Above Average; New York sits 9th and 15th, with DRS crediting catcher and pitcher contributions that OAA misses. Zerillo concedes the risk of fly-balls leaving the yard but argues that Corbin’s cutter-heavy attack plus the Yankees’ solid run prevention behind rookie Will Warren make a 9-run total too high. He projects 7.7 runs and would bet the under to 8.5 (–110).

Sean Zerillo labeled Jared Gordon at ‑120 his best bet of the card and would play the moneyline to ‑130. Zerillo argued Gordon is due positive variance after two razor-thin losses that 84% (Haqparast) and 90% (Pimblett) of media scores had for Gordon. He cited a huge striking-volume gap: Gordon lands 7.5 significant strikes per five minutes at distance versus Moises’ 3.1, resulting in a +1.4 vs ‑1.3 landed/absorbed differential. Gordon also attempts 3.6 takedowns per five minutes, giving him wrestling initiative, while Moises rarely shoots and prefers low-output countering. The only danger is Moises backpacking for a round or snatching a submission, but Gordon was promoted to BJJ black belt last year and has defended 17 of 20 career sub attempts. Zerillo’s model makes Gordon ‑135 with 57% win probability.

Sean Zerillo highlighted Luana Pinheiro by decision at +550 as the week’s lone money-line underdog he projects value on. Zerillo expects a mostly striking affair—Pennington averages just 0.4 takedowns per 15 minutes—and noted that Pennington’s volume counts for little with judges because she has registered only one knockdown in 11 UFC years. Pinheiro, five years younger, throws harder singles and can mix the occasional takedown, which Zerillo says is enough to steal two rounds in a matchup he already pegs to go the distance 69% of the time (market implied 61%). He would still nibble Pinheiro straight up to +290 but prefers the decision prop for the 15% implied win probability swing.

Sean Zerillo makes ‘Fight Goes to Decision’ +140 but books are hanging as high as +165 (even +180 in rogue markets), giving bettors roughly a 6-8 percentage-point edge. Zerillo likes Green’s size and 6.2 strikes landed per minute to keep the pace high while Camilo’s aggressiveness creates exchanges but not necessarily finishes—both men have gone the distance in a combined 8 of their last 11 bouts. The divisional average decision line for lightweights sits near +125, so Zerillo thinks the market is over-reacting to Green’s knockout loss to Bryan Battle and two-year layoff. He is sprinkling Green +195 as well but considers the decision prop the cleaner value play, contingent on Green looking healthy at Friday’s weigh-ins after moving back down to 155.

Sean Zerillo is eyeing the Fight-Goes-to-Decision prop at +123, calling it a pure price discrepancy. Featherweight bouts have ended in a decision roughly 52% historically (and 68% the past two years), so the plus-money tag implies barely a 44% chance—far too low in Zerillo’s model. He conceded both men swing big, but Lee owns a six-inch reach edge and should be able to jab and clinch enough to survive Santos’s blitzes. Zerillo expects a high-paced ‘Fight of the Night’ style scrap that nevertheless lasts the full 15 minutes more often than the odds suggest, projecting 55–57% to see the cards.

Sean Zerillo named Ion Cutelaba –110 as his best bet, stressing the Moldovan’s relentless pressure and wrestling edge historically trouble lanky kickers like Modestas Bukauskas. Zerillo cited Bukauskas’ struggles whenever opponents close distance—knockout losses to Khalil Rountree, Vitor Petrino and Michal Oleksiejczuk—and believes Cutelaba can replicate that blueprint. Tape shows Cutelaba now carries at least 10 competitive minutes after pacing himself versus Even Erslan, giving him a path to win a 29-28 if the finish does not come. Zerillo will pair the moneyline with "fight ends inside the distance" (–220) or under 2.5 rounds (–164) to juice the payout and plans to live-bet Bukauskas only if he survives the early storm and Cutelaba fades. He projects Cutelaba 60% to win, with 70% of those wins coming inside the first two rounds.

Sean Zerillo is willing to lay up to -220 on Natalia Silva but prefers her -3.5 point spread at even money, arguing Silva’s metrics scream future champion. Silva’s combined strike accuracy plus defense sits at 111—on par with Volkanovski and Topuria—while Grasso registers just 99. Silva has stuffed 22 of 24 takedowns in the UFC and won 13 of 15 rounds, demonstrating the defensive wrestling Zerillo says neutralizes Grasso’s only path. With a massive speed and kicking advantage, he projects Silva to win at least two rounds 70% of the time and to sweep all three nearly half the time, making the -3.5 a superior risk-reward play.

Sean Zerillo recommended three aligned bets built around Jasudavicius’s size and wrestling edge over Jessica Andrade: 1) Jasmine -3.5 points at -135, 2) fight to go the distance at -110, and 3) Jasmine by decision at +135. Zerillo’s math shows a -300 favorite winning a women’s flyweight bout by decision more than 55% of the time, yet the market prices it at just 42%. Andrade has been blanketed whenever forced to her back, losing all three rounds in most decision losses. Zerillo expects Jasudavicius to bank control with top-position safety rather than hunt finishes, projecting a 29-28 type scorecard if Andrade survives early takedowns.

Sean Zerillo grabbed Charles “Chuck Buffalo” Radtke at +145 and sprinkled KO (+360) plus R2 (10-1) and R3 (13-1) props, but his main plan is to hammer Radtke live after Round 1 when Mike Malott’s cardio historically nosedives. Zerillo reminded listeners of Malott’s meltdown versus Neil Magny—14 dominant minutes followed by a complete gas-out—and pointed out that nine of Malott’s 10 pro wins came inside five minutes. Radtke, a BJJ black belt with solid power, has never been finished and should take over once scrambles get sweaty. Zerillo projects Malott to win the first frame roughly 60% of the time, making a live price of +250 or better on Radtke extremely attractive.

Sean Zerillo said he is laying the short juice on Manon Fiorot at –125 pre-fight, then looking to flip to Valentina Shevchenko live after Round 1. Zerillo expects Fiorot’s trademark blitzes and 6.8 sig-strikes-per-minute pace to steal the early frames, noting she dropped 170 sig strikes on Erin Blanchfield and looked visibly larger in that five-rounder. He also trusts Fiorot’s distance striking to expose Shevchenko’s declining output, which cratered in the Grasso rematch. However, Zerillo warned that Shevchenko carries the superior wrestling and five-round experience—advantages that tend to surface once adrenaline dumps. If the first round is mostly stand-up, he anticipates a swollen in-fight price on the ex-champ and will buy back then, effectively creating a free-roll middle.

Sean Zerillo said he is taking the plus-money side on Jack Della Maddalena at +160 or better in Saturday’s welterweight title fight. Zerillo stressed the eight-year age gap, noting fighters 35-plus fare poorly in championship bouts, and likes Jack’s sharper boxing, sneaky power that floored Randy Brown, and head-body combinations that judges notice. He trusts Maddalena’s gas tank after watching him finish strong against Bassil Hafez and Gilbert Burns and believes the Australian’s damage at distance will outweigh Muhammad’s conservative control. Because Muhammad is notoriously durable, Zerillo prefers splitting exposure between the underdog moneyline and the KO/inside-the-distance props priced around +350, which he makes closer to +250.