Zerillo makes Toronto –110 behind Chris Bassitt’s rejuvenated arsenal and grabbed the Jays at +110, playable to even money. Bassitt has slashed his walk rate in half (4.5 %), posted a career-best 25 % strikeout rate, and coaxed chases 33 % of the time thanks to sharper slider locations. Meanwhile, San Diego’s lineup drops nearly 30 points of wRC+ against right-handers compared to lefties, and the Friars’ middle relief still ranks bottom-10 in both WHIP and xFIP. With projected pick-’em odds, Zerillo sees any plus-price as automatic value on Toronto.

Although he ultimately played only the total, Sean Zerillo said Pittsburgh is worth a look at +115 and would bet them down to +108. His model makes the game Pirates –101. The edge stems from Cincinnati’s bottom-five defense against lefties (wRC+ 80) and Martinez’s limited ceiling beyond six innings, while Falter benefits from Pittsburgh’s vastly improved defense. Zerillo suggests readers who want side action can fire on the Buccos provided the number stays in the double-digit plus range.

Sean Zerillo projected the Diamondbacks at +180 and therefore wants +200 or better before firing on their moneyline. The handicap is two-fold: Arizona just tagged Yoshinobu Yamamoto for five runs with only four strikeouts—both season-worst marks for the Japanese ace—and Zerillo thinks that outing was not a fluke. Yamamoto’s average fastball velocity has lost a full tick since April, his sinker is down 1.1 mph, his splitter almost two, and Pitching+ has dropped from 105 to 101. Meanwhile Bot-ERA has risen to 4.40. Injuries have gutted the Dodgers’ rotation depth, so Dave Roberts may have to push Yamamoto deeper than ideal. On Arizona’s side, Zerillo expects only 3–4 effective innings from Ryne Nelson before Torey Lovullo pieces together a bullpen game, but the plus-money cushion offsets that risk. He will not play the Snakes below +200 and still prefers the total, yet believes the number offers sufficient value if the market drifts that high.

Sean Zerillo advised abandoning any remaining Orioles futures, calling their 15-31 start “virtually no path back.” Baltimore is already 14 games under .500 and sits in a division where only the Yankees are above break-even, yet four AL Central clubs are over .500. Zerillo pointed to the Orioles’ paper-thin rotation, refusal to invest in multi-year pitching, and an offense that ranks near the bottom of every major category. With Brandon Hyde out and structural roster issues persisting, Zerillo believes any playoff or win-total tickets should be treated as dead money and sees value only in looking toward 2026 markets.

Sean Zerillo reiterated his interest in the Blue Jays moneyline but sharpened the angle: play the full game at even money or better rather than chasing a live price or the first-five inning line. Zerillo makes the full-game number Toronto –110 while his first-five projection is a true pick’em, so the larger theoretical edge sits after the bullpens get involved. He concedes Dylan Cease has rediscovered ace form (19 strikeouts over his last two starts after a nine-run outlier) but believes San Diego’s A-relievers create a bigger gap versus Toronto’s pen than Cease does versus a resurgent Chris Bassitt. Bassitt’s profile supports the bet: walk rate chopped in half to 4.5 %, strikeout rate up to a career-best 25 %, outside-swing rate up to 33 % (career 25 %), swinging-strike rate up to 11 %, and his Location+ has climbed back to 105, correlating with a 3.2 expected ERA. With Bassitt pitching at a career peak and the Jays still catching plus prices, Zerillo is comfortable firing pre-game and would not delay for an in-game number that likely appears only once San Diego’s elite bullpen has the leverage.

Sean Zerillo played the full-game under 9 because he believes Corbin’s new pitch mix plus two standout defenses can keep scoring in check. Since ditching his four-seamer 15 starts ago, Corbin owns a 3.98 ERA, 4.26 FIP, and 3.94 xFIP with a 13.7% K-BB%—all far better than his replacement-level numbers from 2021-23. Pitching+ rates him at 102 this season, the first time he has graded above 100. Texas ranks 1st in Defensive Runs Saved and 4th in Outs Above Average; New York sits 9th and 15th, with DRS crediting catcher and pitcher contributions that OAA misses. Zerillo concedes the risk of fly-balls leaving the yard but argues that Corbin’s cutter-heavy attack plus the Yankees’ solid run prevention behind rookie Will Warren make a 9-run total too high. He projects 7.7 runs and would bet the under to 8.5 (–110).

Sean Zerillo labeled Jared Gordon at ‑120 his best bet of the card and would play the moneyline to ‑130. Zerillo argued Gordon is due positive variance after two razor-thin losses that 84% (Haqparast) and 90% (Pimblett) of media scores had for Gordon. He cited a huge striking-volume gap: Gordon lands 7.5 significant strikes per five minutes at distance versus Moises’ 3.1, resulting in a +1.4 vs ‑1.3 landed/absorbed differential. Gordon also attempts 3.6 takedowns per five minutes, giving him wrestling initiative, while Moises rarely shoots and prefers low-output countering. The only danger is Moises backpacking for a round or snatching a submission, but Gordon was promoted to BJJ black belt last year and has defended 17 of 20 career sub attempts. Zerillo’s model makes Gordon ‑135 with 57% win probability.

Sean Zerillo highlighted Luana Pinheiro by decision at +550 as the week’s lone money-line underdog he projects value on. Zerillo expects a mostly striking affair—Pennington averages just 0.4 takedowns per 15 minutes—and noted that Pennington’s volume counts for little with judges because she has registered only one knockdown in 11 UFC years. Pinheiro, five years younger, throws harder singles and can mix the occasional takedown, which Zerillo says is enough to steal two rounds in a matchup he already pegs to go the distance 69% of the time (market implied 61%). He would still nibble Pinheiro straight up to +290 but prefers the decision prop for the 15% implied win probability swing.

Sean Zerillo makes ‘Fight Goes to Decision’ +140 but books are hanging as high as +165 (even +180 in rogue markets), giving bettors roughly a 6-8 percentage-point edge. Zerillo likes Green’s size and 6.2 strikes landed per minute to keep the pace high while Camilo’s aggressiveness creates exchanges but not necessarily finishes—both men have gone the distance in a combined 8 of their last 11 bouts. The divisional average decision line for lightweights sits near +125, so Zerillo thinks the market is over-reacting to Green’s knockout loss to Bryan Battle and two-year layoff. He is sprinkling Green +195 as well but considers the decision prop the cleaner value play, contingent on Green looking healthy at Friday’s weigh-ins after moving back down to 155.

Sean Zerillo is eyeing the Fight-Goes-to-Decision prop at +123, calling it a pure price discrepancy. Featherweight bouts have ended in a decision roughly 52% historically (and 68% the past two years), so the plus-money tag implies barely a 44% chance—far too low in Zerillo’s model. He conceded both men swing big, but Lee owns a six-inch reach edge and should be able to jab and clinch enough to survive Santos’s blitzes. Zerillo expects a high-paced ‘Fight of the Night’ style scrap that nevertheless lasts the full 15 minutes more often than the odds suggest, projecting 55–57% to see the cards.

Sean Zerillo named Ion Cutelaba –110 as his best bet, stressing the Moldovan’s relentless pressure and wrestling edge historically trouble lanky kickers like Modestas Bukauskas. Zerillo cited Bukauskas’ struggles whenever opponents close distance—knockout losses to Khalil Rountree, Vitor Petrino and Michal Oleksiejczuk—and believes Cutelaba can replicate that blueprint. Tape shows Cutelaba now carries at least 10 competitive minutes after pacing himself versus Even Erslan, giving him a path to win a 29-28 if the finish does not come. Zerillo will pair the moneyline with "fight ends inside the distance" (–220) or under 2.5 rounds (–164) to juice the payout and plans to live-bet Bukauskas only if he survives the early storm and Cutelaba fades. He projects Cutelaba 60% to win, with 70% of those wins coming inside the first two rounds.

Sean Zerillo is willing to lay up to -220 on Natalia Silva but prefers her -3.5 point spread at even money, arguing Silva’s metrics scream future champion. Silva’s combined strike accuracy plus defense sits at 111—on par with Volkanovski and Topuria—while Grasso registers just 99. Silva has stuffed 22 of 24 takedowns in the UFC and won 13 of 15 rounds, demonstrating the defensive wrestling Zerillo says neutralizes Grasso’s only path. With a massive speed and kicking advantage, he projects Silva to win at least two rounds 70% of the time and to sweep all three nearly half the time, making the -3.5 a superior risk-reward play.

Sean Zerillo recommended three aligned bets built around Jasudavicius’s size and wrestling edge over Jessica Andrade: 1) Jasmine -3.5 points at -135, 2) fight to go the distance at -110, and 3) Jasmine by decision at +135. Zerillo’s math shows a -300 favorite winning a women’s flyweight bout by decision more than 55% of the time, yet the market prices it at just 42%. Andrade has been blanketed whenever forced to her back, losing all three rounds in most decision losses. Zerillo expects Jasudavicius to bank control with top-position safety rather than hunt finishes, projecting a 29-28 type scorecard if Andrade survives early takedowns.

Sean Zerillo grabbed Charles “Chuck Buffalo” Radtke at +145 and sprinkled KO (+360) plus R2 (10-1) and R3 (13-1) props, but his main plan is to hammer Radtke live after Round 1 when Mike Malott’s cardio historically nosedives. Zerillo reminded listeners of Malott’s meltdown versus Neil Magny—14 dominant minutes followed by a complete gas-out—and pointed out that nine of Malott’s 10 pro wins came inside five minutes. Radtke, a BJJ black belt with solid power, has never been finished and should take over once scrambles get sweaty. Zerillo projects Malott to win the first frame roughly 60% of the time, making a live price of +250 or better on Radtke extremely attractive.

Sean Zerillo said he is laying the short juice on Manon Fiorot at –125 pre-fight, then looking to flip to Valentina Shevchenko live after Round 1. Zerillo expects Fiorot’s trademark blitzes and 6.8 sig-strikes-per-minute pace to steal the early frames, noting she dropped 170 sig strikes on Erin Blanchfield and looked visibly larger in that five-rounder. He also trusts Fiorot’s distance striking to expose Shevchenko’s declining output, which cratered in the Grasso rematch. However, Zerillo warned that Shevchenko carries the superior wrestling and five-round experience—advantages that tend to surface once adrenaline dumps. If the first round is mostly stand-up, he anticipates a swollen in-fight price on the ex-champ and will buy back then, effectively creating a free-roll middle.

Sean Zerillo said he is taking the plus-money side on Jack Della Maddalena at +160 or better in Saturday’s welterweight title fight. Zerillo stressed the eight-year age gap, noting fighters 35-plus fare poorly in championship bouts, and likes Jack’s sharper boxing, sneaky power that floored Randy Brown, and head-body combinations that judges notice. He trusts Maddalena’s gas tank after watching him finish strong against Bassil Hafez and Gilbert Burns and believes the Australian’s damage at distance will outweigh Muhammad’s conservative control. Because Muhammad is notoriously durable, Zerillo prefers splitting exposure between the underdog moneyline and the KO/inside-the-distance props priced around +350, which he makes closer to +250.

Zerillo grabbed the Cardinals at +110, trusting Matthew Liberatore’s breakout and fading the support behind Paul Skenes. Skenes still boasts elite indicators (2.60 xERA, 109 Stuff+, 113 Pitching+) but has consciously sacrificed strikeouts (-8.3% K rate YoY) to pitch deeper, exposing games to a Pirates bullpen that ranks 24th in xFIP and 23rd in K-BB%. Offensively Pittsburgh is anemic (79 wRC+, 29th MLB). Liberatore, meanwhile, has unlocked a sharper slider that neutralizes righties (2.95 xFIP, 20.6% K-BB% vs righties) and pairs it with drastically improved command (2.3% walk rate, 105 Location+). His career-best 2.94 xERA and 2.91 xFIP suggest he’s a mid-rotation quality starter right now. With St. Louis holding the better bullpen and lineup in front of a surging Liberatore, Zerillo saw + odds as generous.

Zerillo laid the price on the Cubs moneyline (good to -160), calling Colin Rea a marginally better arm than 42-year-old Justin Verlander right now. Rea’s 3.52 xERA, 16.2% K-BB% and career-best 93.8 mph heater outclass Verlander’s 3.72 xERA, 12.1% K-BB% and career-low 94.3 mph velocity. The betting model shows only a razor-thin projection gap (Rea 4.18-4.48 FIP vs Verlander 4.11-4.38), yet Chicago owns decisive team edges: a league-leading 126 wRC+ offense versus the Giants’ 95 wRC+, plus superior defense now that Patrick Bailey’s framing is diminished by MLB’s smaller strike-zone buffer. With the talent gap on both sides of the ball and Rea trending up while Verlander’s chase rate sinks to 27.4% (31.3% career), Zerillo endorsed the Cubs.

Sean Zerillo took the Yankees on the moneyline (playable to -115) even though ex-Yankee Michael King has blossomed into a true No. 1 with a 2.60 xERA and 21.8% K-BB%. Zerillo argued that Clarke Schmidt’s ugly 5.52 ERA is misleading; his 3.54 xERA, 3.68 botERA and two above-average breakers (115 Stuff+ knuckle-curve, 103 slider) profile as league-average or better the rest of the way. The handicap leans on New York’s edges elsewhere: the Yankee lineup grades six wRC+ points better than San Diego’s (115 vs 109) even with Jazz Chisholm Jr. sidelined, their gloves rank third in Defensive Runs Saved, and their bullpen sits 7th in xFIP and 8th in K-BB%. With essentially even starting pitching and meaningful advantages in offense, defense and relief depth, Zerillo felt the Bronx Bombers deserved to be small favorites.

Sean Zerillo played Cleveland on the moneyline at -125 and would bet it down to -121, making the Guardians a value against Minnesota. He projected the game at Guardians -132, citing opposite trends for the two starters. Gavin Williams finally flashed his spring breakout form versus the Yankees, posting a 3.19 botERA, 104 Stuff+, 102 Pitching+ and a season-high eight strikeouts while leaning on his best pitch — a 117 Stuff+ curveball he threw 30.8% of the time. Williams has doubled slider usage (24.7% vs 11.3% last year) and shelved a mediocre cutter and change, a pitch-mix tweak that Zerillo believes raises his ceiling. Meanwhile, Bailey Ober’s fastball velocity is down a full tick (90.7 mph) with Stuff+ sliding from 98 to 94. His fastball whiff rate has cratered from 22.2% to 13.9% and strikeout rate from 26.9% to 20.9%, suggesting Ober’s 20.9% K-rate is skating on thin ice. Both pitchers project similarly by raw FIP (3.8-4.2), but Zerillo trusts Williams’ upward trajectory more than Ober’s decline. Offensively, Cleveland owns the healthier, deeper lineup — Minnesota is without Royce Lewis, Willi Castro, Luke Keaschall and Matt Wallner — pushing Zerillo’s model further toward the home nine. All factors combined make the Guardians a short favorite worth backing.

Sean Zerillo recommended betting Over 9.5 runs (playable to -105) in Mets-Nationals. His projection spit out 9.88 runs thanks to near-perfect hitting conditions: 74° at first pitch with a light 4-5 mph breeze blowing out to left-center. Umpire Carlos Torres has historically juiced offense (129-118 to the Over, 52.2% hit rate, K-BB% two points worse than league average). Nationals Park itself ranks seventh in park factor (+2% over league average). Zerillo grades both lineups as above average versus right-handed pitching — 122 wRC+ for the Mets, 108 for the Nats. Conversely, starting pitchers Griffin Canning and Trevor Williams look due for regression: each owns a projected FIP north of 4.2 and sub-league-average strikeout rates (13.5% and 12.6%). Canning’s new release point has boosted his ground-ball rate, but his strikeouts remain pedestrian, while Williams’ underlying xERA has been under 4.0 the past two seasons yet projections peg him closer to 4.8 FIP. Zerillo tied the weather, umpire, park, and pitching regression angles together and labeled the current 9.5 total mis-priced.

Sean Zerillo advised taking the Nationals first-five moneyline at up to -120 because MacKenzie Gore is breaking out while Cade Povich looks ordinary. Through five starts, Gore owns a 31.1% K-BB% (nearly double his career 16.2%), a 2.30 xFIP, 108 Pitching+, and a 3.05 xERA — all career bests. He has flipped his platoon profile, shredding lefties with a 1.22 xFIP and 40.6% K-BB%, largely by upping slider usage versus left-handed hitters from 5% to 42% and shelving his cutter. Projection systems have caught up only partially (3.51-3.75 FIP range), so Zerillo feels the market still underrates him. Povich, meanwhile, brings a middling 10.2% K-BB%, 4.86 xFIP, 4.34 botERA, below-average command, and no pitch above 96 Stuff+. Washington’s bullpen sports a 7.09 ERA (30th) and 7.1% K-BB% (27th), so Zerillo prefers isolating Gore in the first five innings; his model makes the Nats -130 for F5. Play Nationals F5 ML down to -120.

Sean Zerillo said the White Sox–Twins matinee sets up as a classic weather-driven Under. First-pitch temps are projected at 52° with drizzle, and a 6-7 mph wind blowing straight in from center field — conditions that trigger Action Labs’ long-term wind-and-weather system (4.7% ROI since 2005). Zerillo’s own model makes the total 7.42 runs, creating value on Under 8 to -112. He added pitching support: Chris Paddack has righted the ship after two ugly outings, allowing just two earned runs over his last 10 innings with 11 Ks, and projection systems now slot him as a league-average arm (3.94-4.25 FIP range) thanks to elite command (116 Location+) and a plus changeup. Rule-5 rookie Shane Smith owns only one above-average pitch (90.5 mph changeup, 103 Stuff+) but locates the fastball well (114 Location+). That, plus a slumping Twins lineup (82 wRC+, 26th), led Zerillo to recommend betting the Under rather than picking a side.

For the third straight start Zerillo is betting on Ryan Gusto, recommending Houston as short home underdogs (available +100) versus Bowden Francis. Gusto sports a 4.02 xERA and 3.69 xFIP through his first MLB turns with metrics that pop: 107 Stuff+, 108 Pitching+, 2.55 botERA. He throws at least six pitches, all grading out favorably after gaining 1 mph on his fastballs and 2 mph on the changeup since Triple‑A. Although Gusto was an 11th‑round afterthought, Zerillo likens his early data to last season’s Spencer Schwellenbach breakout and projects him roughly a half‑run better than Francis, who carries a career 5.09 FIP and sub‑90 Stuff+ profile. With the Astros’ deeper bullpen and plus odds at home, Zerillo sees clear value on Houston’s moneyline and would play them to -103.

Zerillo pounded Over 9 runs (good to -107) in Dodgers‑Cubs after Chicago logged 24 combined runs Friday and 21 on Tuesday. With Bobby Miller optioned, Los Angeles is forced into a bullpen game headlined by rookie Ben Casparius—an intriguing arm (133‑Stuff+ slider) but still a multi‑inning reliever. The Cubs counter with Matthew Boyd, whose shiny 3.33 xERA is belied by ugly model grades (86 Pitching+, 4.56 botERA) and projections around a 4.00 FIP. Chicago’s relief corps is a tire fire (27th in xFIP, 6.7% K‑BB%), and both clubs are rested thanks to off‑days Monday and Thursday, ensuring managers can chase runs without worrying about bullpen fatigue. Given Wrigley’s recent slugfests and Boyd’s impending regression, Zerillo expects another shootout.

Zerillo bet Over 9.5 runs (would play to 10 at -110) for Wednesday’s Mariners‑Red Sox matchup. He rates both starters as No. 5 types: Emerson Hancock (career 5.52 FIP, projected 4.54‑4.81) and Sean Newcomb (career 4.58 xFIP, projected 4.11‑4.47). Newcomb’s 23.5% K‑rate masks chronic wildness (11.1% BB%, 85 Pitching+), a poor fit against a Seattle offense that walks 10.8% of the time (third‑highest in MLB) and strikes out 5% less on the road. Hancock is throwing his below‑average sinker 52% of the time and has cut slider usage, leaving Boston’s lineup to feast on a changeup that owns just 88 Stuff+. Fenway’s short porch plus middling middle relievers (Seattle bullpen 18th in xFIP, Boston 12th) further tilt the game toward runs; Zerillo’s model makes the total 10.51.

Sean Zerillo grabbed both the first‑five and full‑game moneylines on Cleveland, betting the Guardians down to +123 F5 and +117 full game. Zerillo noted that Luis L. Ortiz has quietly produced league‑average pitch‑model numbers (99 Pitching+, 4.02 botERA) and looks like a breakout candidate now that Cleveland’s coaches have slashed his sinker usage (26% last season to 8% last start) and leaned on a four‑seam/cutter/changeup mix. Every non‑cutter pitch in Ortiz’s arsenal grades 99 Stuff+ or better, and the tweak has produced back‑to‑back 10‑ and 8‑strikeout efforts with a 24.7% K‑rate. Zerillo projected the Guardians as only +115 F5 and +108 full game against Carlos Rodon, creating enough cushion to fire on the underdog. He does not see value on the total (model 7.96 vs market 8) and expects both clubs to use full lineups because they’re off on Thursday.

Zerillo set the Phillies‑Mets total at 7.37 and recommends Under 8 at -115 or better. The handicap leans on two surging starters: Cristopher Sanchez’s three‑pitch mix all grades 115+ Stuff+ and he’s bumped his strikeout rate by 10.4%, while Griffin Canning’s increased slider usage and higher horizontal release have produced a career‑best 54% ground‑ball mark. With both clubs carrying respectable bullpens and Citi Field’s pitcher‑friendly backdrop, Zerillo expects runs to be scarce.

Zerillo projected only 8.46 total runs in Mariners‑Red Sox and advised locking in Under 9 if you can still grab -110. He expects Brayan Bello’s sharpened slider, 98 mph heater and improved infield defense to suppress Seattle contact, while Bryce Miller’s four above‑average pitches offset his command issues enough to keep Boston from a crooked number. Cooler early‑season temps at Fenway plus Boston’s bullpen advantage also fed the model toward the Under.

Sean Zerillo backed Boston on the moneyline so long as the price stays -130 or better. His projection makes the Red Sox -138 favorites thanks to several edges: Brayan Bello’s velocity jumped to 98 mph during his final rehab start and his command grades (107 Pitching+, 114 Location+ on the slider) are at career‑best levels. Boston’s infield defense has been overhauled—Carlos Narvaez (+2 DRS), Trevor Story and Alex Bregman replace the error‑prone Connor Wong, Rafael Devers and David Hamilton—further boosting Bello’s heavy ground‑ball profile (53.9% career). Offensively, the Sox project to a 110 wRC+ versus right‑handed pitching while Seattle’s Bryce Miller owns stark splits away from T‑Mobile (4.41 road xFIP) and against left‑handed bats (4.81 xFIP, 12.9% K‑BB%). Miller’s walk rate is up to 11.6% with an 89 Location+, giving Boston additional paths to run production. Zerillo summed it up: pitching edge plus defensive upgrade plus lineup advantage equals Boston value down to -130.

Although Cristopher Sanchez is flashing Cy Young form (1.4‑1.6 mph velocity bump, 116 Stuff+, 2.64 xERA, 56.9% GB rate), Zerillo still wants the Mets at +120 or longer because the model makes them +108. New York has the better offense and defense, posting a projected 116 wRC+ versus left‑handed pitching compared to Philly’s 112 versus righties. Griffin Canning’s revamped delivery and 54% ground‑ball rate give the Mets a fighting chance to match Sanchez inning for inning, and their bullpen results have been stronger to date. Wait for +120, then fire on the Mets.

Sean Zerillo played Under 8 runs (to -110) in Phillies‑Mets. Despite Aaron Nola’s ugly 0‑4, 6.65 ERA start, Zerillo pointed to steadier indicators (4.01 xERA, 3.44 xFIP, 104 Stuff+) and expects regression toward his career norms. Mets hitters have an .833 OPS in 312 PAs off Nola, but Tylor Megill counters with a revamped arsenal—sinkers and a reshaped slider now 45% of his mix (both >104 Stuff+)—and has held Philadelphia to a .545 OPS over 94 PAs. Both bullpens grade top‑7 in K‑BB% and Stuff+ (Phillies rank first at 108 Stuff+, 3.07 botERA). Game‑time temps hover 54° with a real‑feel 45°, muting a mild 10 mph wind to left. Zerillo’s model spits out 7.43 runs, creating enough cushion to back the under.

Sean Zerillo bet Under 8.5 runs (playable to 8 at -105) for Padres‑Tigers. He downgraded San Diego’s lineup from a projected 114 wRC+ to 102 because Luis Arraez is likely out and Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth and Jason Heyward are already sidelined. Zerillo noted the historical "Sunday Night Baseball hangover"—teams traveling overnight after the ESPN game average 0.42 fewer runs—and the Padres flew from Houston while Detroit stayed home. Comerica Park already suppresses scoring by roughly 6%, and Monday calls for a 15‑20 mph cross‑breeze with real‑feel temps in the low‑50s. While neither starter (Randy Vasquez vs Keider Montero) is elite, both flash above‑average breaking stuff (Vasquez slider 116 Stuff+, Montero sinker 110, slider 104). Zerillo’s model projects 7.58 runs, giving enough edge to fire on the under.

Sean Zerillo recommends betting the Under (opened at 8.5, playable down to 8 at -115) in the Royals-Tigers matchup due in part to Royals pitcher Michael Lorenzen's improved command and pitch modeling metrics. Lorenzen features career-best command metrics (109 Location+, 102 Pitching+) and a low 5.6% walk rate despite a more average career baseline. Weather conditions in Detroit (51-degree real feel and 10 mph winds blowing in) further depress run scoring, combining with Kansas City's struggling lineup (67 wRC+, 28th in MLB) to point towards a low-scoring affair. Zerillo projects a total of just 7.35 runs for a high-value under play.

Sean Zerillo highlights Reese Olson as a pitcher poised for positive regression despite a rocky 6.00 ERA to start 2025. Olson's underlying metrics are career-bests: velocity up nearly one mph (95 mph vs 94.2 mph the previous year) and improved pitch modeling ratings (Stuff+ at 95, Location+ at 101, Pitching+ at 97). Olson has consistently shown ability as a solid starter in prior seasons, with an excellent 3.64 xERA in 2024 and career xFIP at 3.82. Zerillo emphasizes projections (FIP range 3.84 to 4.12) that suggest he's overdue for better results, positioning Olson as a promising betting option going forward.

Sean Zerillo notes significant steps backward for Guardians pitcher Tanner Bibee compared to his solid 2024 campaign. Bibee's advanced metrics are troubling this year, evidenced by a 4.74 xERA, 5.31 xFIP, 4.34 botERA, and a drastically reduced strikeout-minus-walk rate (4.8% compared to 20.1% in 2024). The shape of Bibee's fastball has worsened according to Stuff+ ratings, falling from a 92 Stuff+ last season to 81 Stuff+ this year. He's also switched pitch selections, moving away from a strong curveball (109 Stuff+, .309 xwOBA allowed) to a significantly less effective cutter (89 Stuff+, two homers allowed, .666 xwOBA in a limited sample). Zerillo suggests fading Bibee given these worrying signs of regression, change in repertoire, and underlying metrics.

Sean Zerillo advises caution around Orioles pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano despite a strong surface-level 3.86 ERA. Sugano's underlying metrics align poorly with his current ERA, showing projected rest-of-season FIP between 4.79 to 5.08, closer to his advanced indicators like xERA (5.90) and xFIP (5.54). Sugano's command has unexpectedly slipped against MLB hitters, despite previously excellent control (only 2.6% walk rate in Japan last season), likely due to cautious nibbling against Major League competition. Additionally, his Stuff+ rated overall below average (92 Stuff+), with only his slider (109 Stuff+) standing out. Given his struggles to miss bats consistently at the MLB level, Zerillo recommends betting against Sugano for this matchup.

Sean Zerillo identified betting value on the Red Sox Monday against Tampa Bay at even-money (+100) odds despite facing standout Rays starter Shane Baz. Zerillo pointed to the Red Sox offense's significantly higher output potential versus right-handed pitching, emphasizing a 12-point wRC+ swing in lineup quality with key hitters Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, and Wilyer Abreu benefiting from the preferred platoon matchup. Although respecting Baz's excellent early season metrics (2.70 xERA, strong stuff grades), Zerillo believed Boston's pronounced offensive splits against right-handers represented clear market value, advising betting on the Red Sox moneyline at +100.

Sean Zerillo advised backing the Yankees moneyline and betting the total over 8.5 runs in Monday's matchup against Kansas City. He highlighted the vulnerability of both pitchers. Yankees starter Carlos Carrasco has struggled mightily, posting a 6.07 xERA and career-low velocity on all his pitches, resulting in a concerning 85 Stuff+ metric. Zerillo labeled Carrasco replacement-level at best. Royals starter Seth Lugo also raises red flags after experiencing significant regression, shown by a career-low 6.8% swinging-strike rate and declining strike-throwing command (Location+ dropped from 99 to 89, and botERA spiked from 4.29 to 5.53). Lugo's strikeout minus walk rate (K-BB%) plummeted to 7.6%, nearly half his previous-year mark, suggesting both short- and long-term concerns, including possible injury risk. Zerillo projected a total of 9 runs and expects ample offense from both lineups, recommending betting over 8.5 up to -110 odds, and Yankees moneyline to -125.

Sean Zerillo recommended backing Giants pitcher Landen Roupp against Philadelphia, forecasting San Francisco should be road favorites instead of current slight underdogs. Roupp impressively diversified his pitch mix, reducing curveball reliance (from 44% to 29%) in favor of increased changeups (9.4% to 18.9%) and a newly-added cutter (7%). Although stuff grades on these new offerings remain average (changeup: 87 Stuff+, cutter: 80 Stuff+), his sinker (100 Stuff+) and curve (109 Stuff+) grades are strong. Roupp maintains an exceptional career ground-ball rate consistently above 50%, providing a reliably high floor. Conversely, Taijuan Walker's command issues persist despite improved velocity and Stuff+. Walker's called-strike plus whiff (CSW%) rate and botERA currently sit at six-year lows, suggesting continuing underlying issues even though superficial indicators have improved from his disastrous 2024 season. Zerillo emphasized Roupp's clear pitching advantage, projecting San Francisco's first five innings moneyline value up to -105 and full-game moneyline to +102.

Sean Zerillo strongly supports Virna Jandiroba as excellent betting value against Yan Xiaonan at around -145, modeling the line closer to -200. Zerillo firmly praised Jandiroba as potentially the best pure grappler in the women's strawweight division, citing her standout fight against Mackenzie Dern and notable positional control skills. Zerillo underscored Yan's known vulnerabilities when dealing with grappling pressure, making Jandiroba's path to victory clearly defined on the ground. Although he simultaneously projects some value in Jandiroba's decision props, Zerillo emphasized a strong preference for her submission prop due to the positional dominance she should consistently achieve. He confidently identifies Virna's clear grappling advantage as the decisive factor in winning this matchup.

Sean Zerillo identified Michael Chandler as a predictable fade for live betting opportunities after round one against Paddy Pimblett at UFC 314. Zerillo underlined Chandler's notorious habit of throwing exhausting, powerful strikes early and frequently gassing out considerably in later rounds. Zerillo noted historically profitable situations betting against Chandler live in fights like Dustin Poirier, where Chandler depleted his energy reserves after aggressive opening rounds. Zerillo acknowledged Chandler's second wind against Charles Oliveira but maintained that generally, Chandler’s energy expenditure leads to quick deterioration in performance. Zerillo indicated potential for Pimblett to capitalize with durability, size advantages, and late-round finish opportunities.

Sean Zerillo highlighted Nikita Krylov as excellent value at +340 by knockout against Dominick Reyes, noting Reyes' significant durability concerns. Zerillo recalls Reyes previously having a suspect chin before his recent win over Dustin Jacoby and remains unconvinced by Reyes' supposed resurgence. Although recognizing Krylov's recent absence, Zerillo praised him as one of the division's most versatile fighters with strong striking capabilities. Due to Reyes' concerning durability and questionable defense under pressure, Zerillo expressed a preference to bet Krylov specifically by KO rather than at his steeper moneyline around -175. He also included Krylov as a viable parlay piece up to around -185 odds.

Sean Zerillo pushes back strongly against the popular narrative that Bryce Mitchell will dominate Jonathan Silva on the ground, emphasizing Silva's superior athleticism, power, and dangerous finishing potential. Zerillo notes that Mitchell relies entirely on control without offering significant ground-and-pound, making it improbable he'll hold Silva down safely for 15 minutes. Mitchell's limited striking from top position means he'd have to maintain extended back control, which Zerillo doubts he can accomplish consistently against the physically powerful Silva. Zerillo characterizes the idea of Mitchell thoroughly out-grappling Silva as a misleading popular take this week, advising strongly against it.

Sean Zerillo emphasized caution when betting Chase Hooper, explicitly highlighting Jim Miller's substantial round-one upset potential at UFC 314. Zerillo specifically pointed out Miller's superior early striking power, referencing Hooper's previous vulnerability, as with the early Steve Garcia fight. He highlighted Miller's credible guillotine choke threat, particularly if Hooper confidently shoots takedowns early in the bout. Although ultimately favoring Hooper as fights extend, Zerillo strongly warned against completely writing off Miller's significant and underestimated first-round KO or submission threats, creating potential betting value with long odds on Miller in round one.