Sean Zerillo strongly recommends betting Corbin Carroll to lead MLB in runs scored. His modeling indicates that Carroll wins this prop 10-11% of the time, equating to fair odds of around 9 to 1. Carroll endured a slow start last season due to injuries yet still finished fifth league-wide with 120 runs and actually led all hitters in runs during the second half. Zerillo highlights a notable change—Carroll started pulling more fly balls in the air, significantly boosting his power potential. Given Carroll’s elite speed and discipline (high walk-rate), he's primed for frequent scoring opportunities and easy doubles or triples. Zerillo bet it himself at 20 to 1 but still advises it's good value at anything better than 10 to 1.

Sean Zerillo endorses Jacob deGrom as a high-upside bet at 4 to 1 odds to lead MLB in strikeouts, despite being highly injury prone. Zerillo incorporates injuries into his modeling and asserts that even if deGrom has a high (70%) injury risk, he's still mathematically a decent value at current odds. DeGrom offers significant ceiling potential, making him an intriguing long-shot given his elite strikeout rate and dominance when healthy.

Sean Zerillo sees the Toronto Blue Jays as significantly undervalued entering the season, notably recommending betting their season win total over 78.5 or 79.5 wins. He questions the strength and depth of divisional rivals like the Yankees, notably after Gerrit Cole’s injury. Due to the uncertainty in the AL East, Zerillo strongly believes Toronto is a legit threat to reach the postseason, further suggesting correlated longshot betting opportunities centered around Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s MVP, hits leader, and RBI leader props as potential paths to success, given that any Toronto playoff push would likely rely on Vlad's elite production.

Sean Zerillo suggests betting Logan Gilbert for AL Cy Young as an under-the-radar candidate. Gilbert notably led MLB pitchers in strikeout-minus-walk rate during the second half of last season. Zerillo emphasizes key improvements—Gilbert saw increased velocity and notably altered his pitch mix, giving him further upside entering this season. His growth trajectory makes him a value Cy Young candidate, offering bettors hidden potential in the markets.

Sean Zerillo highlights Jacob Wilson as a strong Rookie of the Year candidate with major offensive upside this MLB season. Wilson dominated minor leagues last season, batting over .400 across 70 minor league games and appeared headed for Rookie of the Year contention before a hamstring strain prematurely ended his MLB stint. Now healthy and set to play in a newly offense-friendly ballpark in Oakland, Zerillo considers Wilson primed for success, making him a compelling bet for Rookie of the Year honors at relatively appealing odds.

Sean Zerillo identifies betting Cleveland Guardians to miss the playoffs as possibly his strongest bet on the board. His analytical projection models the Guardians' playoff chances at just 29%, which equates to fair odds around -240. Meanwhile, betting markets offer a significantly shorter -140 line, giving a huge value gap and roughly a 15% edge. Zerillo notes he's actually bet this multiple times already throughout the offseason (at -110, -120, and still sees substantial value currently at -140), stressing anyone making a singular preseason futures bet should strongly consider Guardians to miss playoffs due to compelling mathematical advantage.

Sean Zerillo sees value in backing the White Sox on the first five innings line against Cleveland due to the starting pitching matchup advantage. The White Sox rookie Shane Smith has superior projected metrics (average projected FIP of 4.52) compared to Guardians starter Ben Lively (average projected FIP of 4.8). Smith has one elite pitch—a hard changeup with excellent movement (109 Stuff+), especially effective against left-handed hitters. Although the White Sox's offense is poor (72 wRC+) and their bullpen consistently grades among MLB's worst, Zerillo believes Smith's clear initial pitching edge creates value on Chicago's first five innings moneyline (+135) or spread (+0.5 runs, -112). His projections make the White Sox fair +127 underdogs, creating a profitable opportunity at the market price.

Sean Zerillo identified the Cubs as an appealing moneyline play vs the Rangers on April 7. He cited Chicago's superiority in position-player defense and baserunning as distinct advantages, especially crucial in expected low-scoring conditions due to sustained frigid temperatures and winds blowing inward. Although rating the starting pitchers comparably—Eovaldi trending positively for Texas, and a slight projection advantage for Justin Steele (Cubs)—Zerillo ultimately preferred the Cubs due to overall defensive prowess and efficiency on base. He projected Chicago's proper moneyline pricing around -144, recommending the Cubs as a clear value up to -133.

Sean Zerillo emphasized Nathan Eovaldi's potential breakout season in 2025, noting his significant changes in pitch usage through two impressive starts this season. Eovaldi (Rangers) has drastically increased the usage of his curveball (24.2%) historically his best pitch (108 Stuff+), while decreasing his fastball usage (historically below-average stuff). Zerillo connected this revamped pitch mix to early successes in 2025 (two quality starts, including a shutout, and a perfect 17:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio). This trend offers a strong indication that Eovaldi could significantly surpass projections heading into his matchup at Wrigley Field against the Cubs on April 7, favoring a low-scoring game due to elite command and adverse hitting conditions.

Sean Zerillo advised betting the Toronto Blue Jays moneyline against the Red Sox on April 7, pointing to advantageous weather conditions for fly-ball pitcher Easton Lucas (TOR). Zerillo considers Lucas's fly-ball tendencies favorable in this scenario due to cold weather and winds blowing in from right field expected to suppress fly-ball distance. Additionally, Zerillo rated Toronto's defense as elite compared to Boston's above-average group, giving them heightened edge in a game expecting low run totals. Zerillo projected this matchup essentially as a coin flip, but favored Toronto and specifically recommended betting them if available at +110 or better.

Sean Zerillo identifies the Rockies as a valuable underdog play against the Phillies, recommending a moneyline bet if odds reach +180 or higher, ideally closer to +200. Zerillo believes current projections undervalue Antonio Senzatela relative to Taijuan Walker. Despite Senzatela's shaky season debut, his metrics still project him more favorably (FIP range of 4.39 to 5.10 compared to Walker's projected FIP of 4.83 to 5.34). Zerillo emphasizes Walker's significant velocity decline, historically poor performance indicators, and severe regression trajectory as key reasons for targeting a Rockies upset.

Sean Zerillo recommends betting the Orioles' moneyline, projecting them at -117 and advising action at -107 or better. Zerillo cites a clear bullpen advantage for Baltimore, rating it as a top-five group compared to the Red Sox closer to tenth. Gunnar Henderson's expected return boosts Baltimore's projected lineup strength, giving them a superior projected wRC+ of 122 versus Boston's 111 against right-handed pitchers. Zerillo also emphasizes Baltimore's advantage defensively and on the basepaths, providing significant broad-spectrum value backing the Orioles in this matchup.

Sean Zerillo advises betting the Colorado Rockies at substantial plus-money odds (+185 or better) against Tampa Bay, emphasizing it as a strict numbers play. Though neither strong matchup edges nor meaningful narrative advantages exist, Zerillo highlighted preseason discussion behind the Rockies' potential as value bets early this season due to market assumptions inflating opponents' prices against them. He sees the current elevated line for Tampa Bay in this matchup as unwarranted and exploitable, recommending Colorado specifically from a purely numerical perspective.

Sean Zerillo recommends betting on the Miami Marlins as home underdogs versus the Pirates, particularly at an appealing number (+125 or better). He clarified this choice is purely a market price play, with no substantial matchup edge. However, he pointed out Pittsburgh's significant downgrade with Jared Jones likely out long-term with an arm injury (potentially requiring Tommy John surgery). Despite the limited specific advantages, Zerillo believes Marlins' current market line provides decent standalone betting value.

Sean Zerillo sees strong betting value backing the Detroit Tigers as large underdogs against the Dodgers. He highlighted an Action Labs system identifying road underdogs in games two and three of the regular season as historically dominant, winning outright 50.4% with an 18.6% ROI since 2005. Additionally, he noted an extreme market bias toward the Dodgers always inflates prices, advising bettors to wait until day-of-game to maximize potential payout when betting against them. Zerillo projected Detroit around +170 as fair, recommending bets if the number reached +185 or better, ideally waiting for +200. While Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto excels in suppressing hard contact and limiting home runs, Zerillo recognized that the inflated betting line and the historical system strongly justify taking a shot on the sizable underdog Tigers.

Sean Zerillo likes the Mets as value on their moneyline at plus-money versus the Astros after losing the opening matchup. He highlighted significant bullpen advantages for New York, noting his preseason bullpen power rankings had the Mets 11th and the Astros 23rd, despite the Astros' top relievers Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu. Importantly, both Hader and Abreu pitched extensive outings (35 and 25 pitches) in the opener, making Hader unavailable and Abreu questionable for game two. The Mets' superior bullpen depth combined with their advanced scouting tendencies (particularly against subpar relievers, some of whom Zerillo expects Houston to utilize here) gives New York's late-game situational matchups a clear edge. Although the market price has moved from initial +125 down to around +110, still approximate value exists as Zerillo's projection is around +108. Additionally, the total at eight has minor value to the under, with Zerillo viewing the fair line closer to 7.5.

Sean Zerillo identified the Rangers as a value bet at plus-money odds versus Boston, having projected Texas closer to a slight favorite (around -105). Despite Jack Leiter's inconsistent control issues last season (10-11% walk rate), Zerillo emphasized his substantial upside due to elite-caliber potential in all five pitches, according to advanced Stuff metrics. Tanner Houck, in contrast, struggled notably in spring training and posted a mediocre 4.11 expected ERA as a starter last season with declining performance late in the year. Boston and Texas have comparable bullpens and lineups in Zerillo's view, but the Rangers offer significant betting value at home as slight plus-money underdogs.

Sean Zerillo cautioned against betting on a Brandon Lowe home run prop for the Rockies-Rays game despite preseason expectations of targeting Tampa Bay's Steinbrenner Field for overs. Though the field mirrors Yankee Stadium dimensions favorable to home runs—particularly left-handed hitters against right-handed pitching—today's forecast has strong winds (10 to 15 mph) blowing in heavily from right field, directly counteracting the usual home run advantage. The expected mid-80s temperatures would normally have been ideal to support overs and home runs, but Zerillo emphasized the wind conditions nullify this advantage entirely. Therefore, he explicitly recommended passing on Brandon Lowe home run props and all hitting props associated with the short right-field porch at Steinbrenner Field for this game.

Sean Zerillo identified Washington Nationals baserunners, specifically CJ Abrams at +370 and James Wood at +550, as offering great value for stolen base props against Phillies starter Zach Wheeler. Despite Wheeler improving at holding runners since leaving the Mets, he still allowed eight steals on 11 attempts last year. Zerillo noted how aggressively the Nats ran in 2023's second half (attempting 20 more steals than any other MLB team), believing this trend continues strongly on opening day. Abrams had 18 steal attempts in just 49 games last season, and Wood matched with 18 attempts in about 65 games. Given their ongoing aggressive approach, Zerillo expects multiple stolen-base opportunities, spotlighting Abrams and Wood as particularly attractive bets considering their odds and speed.

Sean Zerillo loves Clayton Holmes' strikeout prop over 3.5 at -165 odds (also recommending over 4.5 at +128), emphasizing Holmes' full optimization moving from reliever to starter in the Mets' rotation. Holmes historically struggled against lefties (career 4.3 xFIP vs 2.9 vs righties) but introduced a new 'kick change' this spring to complement his elite slider and sinker. Zerillo noted Holmes' exceptional spring: 23 strikeouts in 72 batters faced, projecting a rate above 30% Ks sustainable once stabilized. Holmes threw 88 pitches in his last spring outing, indicating he'll comfortably extend to 90-95 pitches opening day. Zerillo confidently projects if Holmes maintains these improvements, he's a legitimate NL Cy Young contender. The projection systems and Action Labs strongly support betting Holmes' strikeout overs, reflecting Holmes’ potential breakout season.

Sean Zerillo likes James Wood's stolen base prop at +550 in an opening day matchup against Zach Wheeler and the Phillies. The Nationals were the MLB's most aggressive team stealing bases in 2023’s second half, attempting steals nearly two times a game. Wheeler, despite improvements holding runners since joining the Phillies, permitted eight steals on 11 attempts last season. Wood himself attempted 18 stolen bases in around 65 games, reflecting Washington's overall aggressive baserunning style. Zerillo enthusiastically called Wood a future 30-30, possibly 40-40 guy, due to his power-speed combo, making the +550 odds especially attractive.

Sean Zerillo recommended under 4.5 strikeouts on Tanner Bibee for opening day versus the Royals. Kansas City held MLB's lowest home strikeout rate of just 17.9% last season—an extraordinary home-away split that Zerillo jokingly speculated involved 'cheating.' Although partially joking, he emphasized the significance and consistency of this home-field edge. The Royals also added Jonathan India at the top of their lineup, further solidifying their low-strikeout identity, with most regulars averaging 20% Ks or below. Additionally, Zerillo anticipates limited pitch counts around 90 pitches for Bibee opening day and aggressive bullpen usage from Cleveland, given an off day afterward, shortening Bibee's outing further. Zerillo has high confidence in this under as a strong correlated play that aligns with his liking of an offensive-heavy game environment overall.

Sean Zerillo strongly recommended betting the under 5.5 strikeouts on Luis Severino, indicating that model projections have his expected number closer to 4.7-4.8 strikeouts for this matchup against Seattle. Zerillo referenced past strikeout difficulties the Mariners faced early last year, but noted cautious optimism in their plate discipline improving. Given pitch count limitations typical on opening day, it's unlikely Severino will exceed projected Ks. Severino's prop line being plus money at 5.5 provided further incentive, and Zerillo stated he'd take under 5 strikeouts at even odds, believing books have inflated his total here.

Sean Zerillo strongly recommended betting under 6.5 strikeouts for Zach Wheeler against the Nationals. Zerillo’s analysis highlighted several reasons for this under play: first, Wheeler typically leans on sinkers earlier in the season to generate ground balls rather than chase strikeouts, shifting to more four-seam usage and velocity as the season progresses. Second, pitch count limitations on opening day will likely prevent Wheeler from exceeding around 90 pitches, further limiting strikeout upside. Lastly, Nationals hitters dramatically improved their strikeout rate after bringing up prospects Dylan Crews and James Wood last year, ending the season ranked second-best in MLB with just a 19.9% strikeout rate over the last two months. Zerillo expects the Nationals will continue their disciplined approach this season and Wheeler to stay below the 6.5 strikeout mark comfortably.