Taking the +5.5, Everett cited Dave Canales’ defense allowing just 4.9 yards per play in Week 3 and New England’s inability to create margin—Bill Belichick’s club has already lost outright at home to Las Vegas and Pittsburgh. With Bryce Young showing incremental progress and the Pats’ 31st-ranked red-zone offense (33% TD rate) unlikely to pull away, he sees Carolina live for an outright upset but at minimum a wire-to-wire cover.

Wes Reynolds said to lay the -5.5 with New England, calling last week’s 21-14 loss to Pittsburgh a mirage because the Patriots out-gained the Steelers 369-203 yet coughed up five turnovers. He expects a cleaner game and noted the offense sits 7th in EPA per play and 12th in success rate. Cornerback Christian Gonzalez is projected to return, shoring up the secondary. Reynolds emphasized how thin Carolina already is on offense: tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders, receivers Xavier Legette and possibly Tetairoa McMillan are out, both starting guards Robert Hunt and Austin Corbett remain on IR, and running back Chuba Hubbard is nursing a calf issue. Carolina’s 30-0 shutout of Atlanta masked the fact they were out-gained 332-224 and benefited from three Falcons turnovers and two missed field goals. With the Panthers previously trailing 27-3 to Arizona and losing 26-10 to Jacksonville, Reynolds believes their injury-riddled unit will struggle to score in Foxboro, making a Patriots win by a touchdown or more the most likely outcome.

Vic Tafur took Carolina +5.5 despite Bryce Young’s shakiness, noting New England’s self-inflicted errors: a 17.8 % missed-tackle rate (third worst in the league) and six turnovers (tied for second). He believes those gaffes will gift the Panthers extra possessions and keep the game tight even if Young merely treads water.