Matty Betss sees slight value on Macy Chiasson at −120 in what he calls a coin-flip matchup against Ketlen Vieira. Chiasson averages 4.1 significant strikes and 1.6 takedowns per minute, and her relentless forward pressure earned a 30-27 over Norma Dumont in a similar stylistic spot. Vieira has the resume edge—wins over Holly Holm, Pannie Kianzad and Miesha Tate—but Betss notes she has been knocked out once and sometimes stalls on the outside. While the +250 decision prop tempted him, Matty prefers the straight price to guard against Chiasson’s quirky finishing arsenal (elbows vs Irene Aldana, doctor stoppage vs Mayra Bueno Silva). In the smaller Apex cage he expects Chiasson’s length and volume to sway judges in a 29-28 type fight, but the moneyline protects bettors from an opportunistic stoppage.

Kunath backed Ketlen Vieira as a plus-money play to win a grindy decision over Macy Chiasson. He admitted Vieira is “a hard watch” and offers little offense, but argued that actually protects her—she makes very few fight-losing mistakes. Chiasson, by contrast, is ultra-aggressive with movement and wrestling attempts, yet repeatedly pulls opponents on top of herself when trying fence-throws and leaves her chin exposed in striking exchanges. Kunath expects Chiasson to shoot or clinch, then slip into a bad position where Vieira simply blankets her for the rest of the round. In the smaller Apex cage, one clean takedown from Vieira likely locks the frame away, and Chiasson’s reach advantage will not matter once she is flat on her back. Because judges reward top control more than volume that does no damage, Kunath sees three slow rounds and a 29-28 (or wider) scorecard for the Brazilian. Recommended wager: Vieira money-line, with decision prop for extra juice.

Sniper called Macy Chiasson a plug-and-play cornerstone in every DraftKings format. Although she still carries under-dog pricing at $7,900 (Vi­era sits $8,300), the betting market has flipped Chiasson to a slight favorite and he wants to pounce on the mis-match. Chiasson’s peripherals are elite for a women’s fighter: 3.7 significant strikes landed vs 2.7 absorbed, plus at least one completed takedown in six of her last seven bouts, including 6-of-12 shots against Norma Dumont and 3-of-8 versus Irene Aldana. Over that span she averages 4+ strikes per minute in every round and has eclipsed 100 DraftKings points in three of four wins—hitting the main-slate optimal lineup each time. Sniper also emphasized her frame (former 145-pounder) gives her a clear size, strength and clinch advantage, neutralizing Vieira’s usual bully-wrestling approach. The only real leak he sees is a late submission off Chiasson’s own takedown, a risk he’s willing to eat given the ceiling. He will be heavy in GPPs and views her as a cash-game lock at the salary discount.

Mont sided with Macy Chiasson at $8,000 despite the pick-em betting line because her round-by-round activity dwarfs Ketlen Vieira’s. Chiasson averages 4.0-plus significant strikes per minute and lands more takedowns and control-time seconds in each of the first two rounds, whereas Vieira’s overall volume sits below three strikes per minute and she is negative in differential (3.9 landed vs 2.9 absorbed). Vieira’s elite 89% takedown defense means Chiasson may need to win this on the feet, but Mont trusts her pace: Chiasson lands 3.7 while absorbing only 2.7 per minute. With the fight expected to go the distance (−300), Mont views Chiasson’s superior output as the deciding factor in both real-life scoring and DraftKings decision wins. At near-even salaries, he will lean toward the statistically busier Chiasson in cash games and mid-range GPP builds.

Dan Tom flipped from the safer decision angle to a plus-money knockout/submission swing on Macy Chiasson, recommending the Inside-the-Distance prop at +475. He argued Chiasson’s newly-polished clinch game under Fortis coach Sayif Saud produces three-to-one knee volume, constant elbow slicing and a suffocating pace that neutralizers like Ketlen Vieira historically hate. In the small Apex cage, Tom expects Chiasson to pin Vieira on the fence, pile up damage and open cuts—similar to how Yana Kunitskaya stole rounds and Kayla Harrison split Vieira’s face. Vieira’s lack of body work removes the only area Tom still worries about defensively for Chiasson. Because the money-line moved from dog to –120, Tom prefers parlaying the short chalk but views the +475 ITD number as the "consensus cash cow" sprinkle that lets bettors chase big upside without requiring additional risky legs.

Madlab Michael Lurato recommended backing Macy Chiasson now that the market has flipped her to a slight favorite (-118) after opening as a dog. Lurato compared Chiasson’s game to a female Tim Means—long limbs, slicing elbows, and a willingness to turn clinches into bloodbaths—and believes her renewed "violent hunger" solves the focus issues that plagued earlier performances. Ketlen Vieira, while far more battle-tested (five former or current champions on her resume), fights in one gear and often matches her opponent’s pace. Lurato expects Chiasson to out-land 3-to-1 with knees and elbows inside, producing the flashier optics judges reward. He also questioned Vieira’s urgency after a high-profile loss to Kayla Harrison, contrasting that with Chiasson’s two-fight win streak and upward divisional trajectory. Because Vieira rarely targets the body—Chiasson’s one known defensive hole—Madlab sees limited finishing danger and projects a clear 29-28 or 30-27 scorecard for the New Orleans native. Betting blueprint: lay the small juice on Chiasson ML or take Chiasson by Decision at plus money if books hang +140 or better.

MMA Guru picked Macy Chiasson to beat Ketlen Vieira, laying out a pretty specific path. He said Vieira’s tame striking output made 38-year-old Miesha Tate look rejuvenated, so he doubts Ketlen will handle Chiasson’s non-stop pace. Chiasson owns a 1.70 significant-strike-per-minute edge over Vieira, stands three inches taller with a 4-inch reach advantage, and routinely forces clinch battles where she racks up control time and short knees. Guru expects Chiasson to pin Vieira to the fence, mix knees and dirty-boxing, and win rounds on optics and volume. He admitted the lone scare is Vieira’s sneaky power-guillotine/​ninja-choke—but noted Chiasson has defended 70% of sub attempts in the UFC. With no clear physicality edge for Vieira this time, Guru recommends betting Chiasson straight or taking her by decision at plus money.