In addition to the under, Kenny G advised a modest wager on Pittsburgh at +135. He argues Logan Webb has fallen short of ace expectations (3.31 ERA but just 9-8 record and heavy bullpen reliance), whereas Mike Burroughs has been "lights out" in four of his last five turns, including the head-to-head win on July 30. The Pirates have quietly gone 31-25 at PNC and continue to punch above their weight there. With San Francisco’s lineup slumping and traveling cross-country on a 1-4 skid, Kenny believes the plus-money price offers value even if he ultimately prefers the total as his stronger play.

Kenny G leaned strongly to San Francisco at -132, citing a pitching mismatch. Justin Verlander may be 1-8 with a 4.53 ERA, but his last two starts were competitive against Atlanta and Pittsburgh, and he held the Pirates to one earned run over five frames on July 29th. The 42-year-old’s fastball has ticked back up to 94.2 mph and he owns a 24% strike-out rate over his past three outings. Pittsburgh counters with Johan Oviedo, making his first MLB appearance since 2023; Kenny noted the wide range of outcomes when a pitcher jumps straight from rehab to a major-league start. The Giants bullpen remains a strength (top-10 ERA), whereas the Pirates pen has regressed after a brief mid-season surge. Offensively, Pittsburgh sits dead last in runs scored and just dropped two of three to Colorado, while San Francisco’s own bats are mediocre but capable of scratching together enough against a rust-ridden starter. Given the bullpen edge and Verlander’s upward trend, Kenny expects the Giants to find a way on the road.

It's The Final Round recommended betting Tommy Pham to clear his hits-plus-runs-plus-RBIs line Monday when the Pirates take on Justin Verlander and the Giants. Verlander has given right-handed hitters a .283 average this season and an inflated .333 over his last five starts. Pham owns a .280 average versus righties, is batting .409 over the last week (9 hits, 1 HR, 4 RBIs, 6 runs in five games), and has battered Verlander historically: 8 hits in 15 career at-bats (.533), including a three-hit day in their most recent matchup. The host's AI model pegs an 83% chance Pham registers a hit, 58% chance for two-plus total bases, and 67% probability he tops 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs. He plans to play the Over 1.5 HRR or single-hit prop, viewing Pham as a plus-EV option given Verlander's age-related decline and the hitter's current surge.