Michael Bisping framed Gilbert Burns as a dangerous underdog against 17-0 finisher Michael Morales. He conceded Morales’ advantages—youth, 12 knockouts, size and surging confidence—but stressed that Burns has rededicated himself after a string of losses. According to Bisping, the 38-year-old moved back into "living in the gym," shed outside distractions, regained his trademark Afro and legitimately looks ten years younger. Burns still carries fight-changing power, strong wrestling entries and world-class jiu-jitsu that produced wins over Jorge Masvidal, Stephen Thompson, Tyron Woodley and Demian Maia and even dropped Kamaru Usman multiple times in a title fight. Bisping’s tone suggested this version of Burns can neutralize Morales on the mat or clip him on the feet, making Burns an attractive plus-money play or DFS leverage option if bookmakers overreact to the age gap.

Matty Betss said Gilbert Burns is wildly mis-priced as a +500 underdog and is worth backing on both the moneyline and at +1100 by submission. Betss argued that Michael Morales’ undefeated 17-0 record masks exploitable flaws: Morales is a technical striker but not a ruthless finisher, showed limited aggression against Jake Matthews (went the distance) and was controlled on the mat by Neil Magny for roughly three minutes in round one. Betss believes the three-time BJJ world champion Burns can replicate and extend that grappling success, threaten with submissions, and turn the bout into the kind of scramble-heavy fight Morales has never faced at the UFC level. With Burns’ elite submission arsenal and Octagon experience, Betss labeled any number north of +200 a value play and called the current +500/+1100 split “the biggest mis-price on the card.”

Billy Ward advised waiting to see the first five minutes, then firing on Gilbert Burns’ money line if he looks competitive. Ward expects Morales to cede early minutes—a pattern that fits his slow-starting, range-management striking approach—so a live number in the +450 range could appear versus the current +600 pre-fight price. Burns’ path is proactive wrestling and top control; Morales’ 21-of-23 takedown denials came against non-elite grapplers, which Ward labeled 'misleading data.' If Burns can bank Round 1 with his wrestling, bettors would be one round up with a still-juicy underdog ticket. Ward cautioned he will only enter if the 38-year-old Brazilian doesn’t look physically shot, but called that live angle his primary plan of attack.

Matty Betss called Gilbert Burns by decision at 12-to-1 the best value left on the board. Burns just banked two wrestling-heavy rounds on Jack Della Maddalena before an injury TKO and went the distance in grueling fights with Belal Muhammad and Brendan Allen, so Betss is confident the 37-year-old can still manage pace. Tape on Michael Morales shows exploitable holes: Trevin Giles had him wobbling, Neil Magny rode out 2.5 minutes of control, and Adam Fugitt landed three takedowns in one round. Betss expects Burns to duplicate the JDM blueprint—double-leg entries, heavy top control, and short elbows—while Morales tries to stay composed on the feet. Because Burns’ finishing odds have already been slammed (KO 25-1, sub 12-1), Betss prefers the decision ticket that pays ten times the moneyline and only asks the former title challenger to win minutes, not find a finish.

Matty Betss said the Circa Sportsbook number of 20-to-1 on Gilbert Burns by knockout is flat-out disrespectful. The submission line is 11-to-1 and even a decision sits at 12-to-1, but Betss reminded listeners that Burns has never been priced this long for a KO in his entire UFC career. Public perception is anchored to Burns’ recent loss to Jack Della Maddalena and the shine on an undefeated opponent, yet Betss noted Burns still carries early-round dynamite in his hands and world-class athleticism that makes him live for the first 12 minutes of any fight. Rather than laying a short moneyline, Betss advised sprinkling the 20-to-1 knockout ticket because the market is forgetting what a healthy, motivated Burns can do when he commits to his boxing combinations.

Matty Betss argued that Gilbert Burns’ submission prop—now sitting at +675 at Circa—remains mis-priced even after the market adjustment from the +1100 opener he mentioned earlier in the week. Betss re-watched Morales’ fight with Neil Magny and saw the Ecuadorian concede takedowns, allow extended back-exposure, and struggle mightily when forced to post on one arm to stand. He believes a 25-year-old who has never faced an A-level grappler will mentally wilt if Burns repeats the pace he set during the first two rounds of the Jack Della Maddalena fight. Betss also cited the context behind Burns’ recent submission drought: since choking out Neil Magny he has faced four opponents who have never been submitted inside the UFC (Belal Muhammad, Jorge Masvidal, Sean Brady, Jack Della). With Morales lacking that résumé and Burns still carrying world-class jiu-jitsu, Betss priced a tap at roughly +400 and called the current +675 ‘wild’ value that deserves a straight sprinkle or use as the finishing leg in parlays.

Michael Lurato said he is probably passing on the main event but sees betting angles if action is required. Because Burns will either operate all the way outside with heavy calf-kicks or crash all the way in to clinch and wrestle, Lurato expects long stretches of fence work and fewer pocket exchanges. Morales, meanwhile, rarely strings combinations together and prefers to snipe, another dynamic that slows pace. Those style traits make the full-fight Over (or alternative totals that reach the championship rounds) his preferred lean. If forced to pick a prop, Lurato would throw a small flyer on Burns Inside-the-Distance by submission, citing Burns’ world-class BJJ and concerns about Morales’ bottom urgency in previous bouts with Neil Magny and Adam Fugitt. He emphasized that any wager on Burns should be tiny, as this is largely a ‘show-me’ spot, but the grappling edge gives the veteran at least one realistic path to cash a plus-money ticket.

Michael Lurato said the only value in the UFC Vegas 106 main event is on Gilbert Burns at roughly +570 and made it clear he would not include Michael Morales in any parlays at –820. Lurato argued that Burns’ three-fight skid has come against elite names (Sean Brady, Jack Della Maddalena, Belal Muhammad) while Morales’ six-fight UFC streak is built on fading veterans or inconsistent talents (Neil Magny, Jake Matthews, Max Griffin, etc.). Burns still carries fight-changing power, world-class BJJ and serviceable wrestling, and older fighters often lean on their grappling to reduce damage. Meanwhile Morales would need to fight perfectly on the back foot for 25 full minutes, something Lurato has not seen him prove at this level. In short, the odds are “ludicrous,” the favorite is un-bettable, and the plus-money vet is the side if you are betting this fight.