Jim Malaro flipped his stance after Media-Day bombshells and now leans toward Mairon Santos. Sodiq Yusuff admitted he spent the last 18 months “putting my body back together,” disclosing two bulging discs in his back, another in his neck and ongoing stem-cell treatments he chose over surgery. Yusuff also said he accepted this bout at 155 because he cannot make featherweight until he is healthy again and has no plans to stay at lightweight. Malaro called chronic back and neck issues “red-alert injuries” for a fighter whose game relies on explosive level changes and clinch strength. Add in the fact Yusuff is coming off a violent KO loss to Diego Lopes and has to absorb Santos’s long-range boxing at a weight he has never competed in, and Jim views the Nigerian as a compromised favorite. He has not fired yet but plans to bet Santos moneyline if the number holds north of +115 and will sprinkle Santos by KO at +350, believing a compromised Yusuff cannot survive sustained body work and straight rights.

Matty Betss framed Mairon Santos as a sneaky buy-low underdog—even sprinkling his KO prop—against Sodiq Yusuff at roughly +115. Bettors are fixated on Santos’ controversial split-decision win over Francis Marshall, but Betss reminded listeners the featherweight openly admitted judges robbed Marshall, meaning market sentiment is unfairly punishing Santos. From a stylistic standpoint Betss prefers Santos’ slicker boxing, faster hands, and seemingly granite chin; the 24-year-old has yet to be knocked out and absorbs damage in stride. Yusuff owns only one career submission, averages fewer than 0.5 takedowns per fight, and Betss doubts he will lean on wrestling. Instead the bout should play out almost entirely on the feet, where Yusuff’s chin has shown cracks—he was badly wobbled by Diego Lopes and hurt multiple times by Edson Barboza despite landing 178 strikes. Betss argues the market overvalues Yusuff’s five-round effort with Barboza even though Barboza has gone 4-6 in his last ten and was dropped by Bryce Mitchell. With KO paths squarely on Santos’ side and plus money available, Betss is content to bet the dog straight and sprinkle the knockout number for extra upside.

MMA Guru predicted that 16-1 prospect Mairon Santos will stop Sodiq Yusuff by TKO. After re-watching Santos’ narrow decision loss to Francis Marshall, Guru noted Santos actually out-damaged Marshall—breaking his nose in round one, landing the cleaner shots in rounds two and three, and only clearly losing the frame in which he was flash-dropped. He framed that bout as a valuable learning experience that will sharpen Santos’ pacing and defense. By contrast, Guru labeled Yusuff ‘a little chinny,’ reminding listeners that Yusuff was repeatedly wobbled in a war with Edson Barboza and tends to get rocked whenever exchanges extend. Moving up to lightweight may spare Yusuff some weight-cut fatigue, but Guru doubts it fixes an inherent durability issue. He also questioned Yusuff’s commitment, pointing to the Nigerian’s voice-acting side jobs and long layoffs between fights, whereas Santos is still in a hungry, activity-driven phase of his career. Expect Santos’ higher output and sharper boxing to snowball, crack Yusuff’s shaky chin, and finish the fight—making Santos money-line plus ITD/TKO props attractive wagering angles.

Jeff Fox sided with 24-year-old Mairon Santos at –130, fading Sodiq Yusuff after a year-long layoff and an April knockout loss. Fox noted Yusuff hasn’t recorded a win since October 2022 and is entering the back half of his career, while Santos is 15-1 with eight KOs and riding a three-fight streak since winning The Ultimate Fighter. Fox likes the Brazilian’s explosiveness and one-shot power, arguing a fresher, faster athlete often exposes veterans coming off KO losses. Even though the matchup is at lightweight, he believes Santos effortlessly makes 145 and will still be the quicker man, throwing varied kick-boxing combos that mirror the style Diego Lopes used to overwhelm Yusuff. Fox expects a statement finish or at worst a clear decision that propels Santos toward the featherweight rankings.

Monk backed Mairon Santos as a buy-low DFS play, noting that Sodiq Yusuff’s defensive metrics have cratered. Yusuff has been knocked down four times across his last three losses—twice by Diego Lopes on only 26 landed strikes—and owns just 21st-percentile distance-strike defense and 26th-percentile overall striking defense in Monk’s model. Although Santos looked flat in a split win over Francis Marshall, Monk believes that poor showing is actually suppressing his DraftKings ownership and the betting line; had Santos breezed through Marshall, he projects the money line would sit around –200. Monk will roster both sides in GPPs but intends to be overweight on Santos, who sits in the mid-$8K range with an implied win probability near 55 %. A finish is not required—Yusuff concedes over one knockdown per 30 significant strikes absorbed—but Monk sees 85–100-point upside if Santos wins minutes behind his volume kickboxing.

Kunath is fading the incoming money on Sodiq Yusuff and likes Mairon Santos to win a decision. He highlighted three angles fueling the public love for Yusuff (early-career hype, perception that Santos ‘robbed’ Francis Marshall, and a card devoid of live dogs) but argued none address the actual matchup. Yusuff has not recorded a KO since 2018, owns just two UFC takedowns and has been dropped in four of his last five bouts while eating 4.71 sig. strikes per minute. Santos absorbs only 3.0 per minute, moves laterally like Natalia Silva did to frustrate Alexa Grasso, and excels at drawing linear fighters into looping counters—a pattern he used to starch Conor McGregor on TUF (Kunath’s tongue-in-cheek reference to the series). Kunath expects Santos to circle, land the cleaner moments, possibly score a knockdown, and carry rounds on the judges’ cards at plus money.