Billy Ward fired on Nate “The Train” Landwehr at +220 and layered in several derivatives, arguing the hometown edge and stylistic matchup make the underdog live. Landwehr averages 5.6 landed strikes per minute at distance to Morgan Chariere’s 4.8, so Ward projects a small but consistent volume lead that sways judges—especially with a pro-Tennessee crowd amplifying every exchange. Chariere’s history backs that up: he is just 5-10 on the scorecards and nine of 15 career decisions were split or majority verdicts, a sign of low output that keeps rounds razor-thin. Ward grabbed Landwehr by decision at +450 and a 10-to-1 sprinkle on the split-decision route, noting Chariere’s penchant for tight fights. He is also sprinkling Landwehr by submission at +1500 because the Frenchman’s recent wrestling has him shooting into Nate’s front-headlock wheelhouse (D’arce, anaconda and back-takes). While Chariere carries more one-shot power, Ward believes the combination of crowd bias, higher pace, and a live sub threat make every Landwehr angle worth a look, recommending the moneyline playable down to +190 with props for extra upside.

Dan Tom echoed the Landwehr upset angle but outlined a two-ticket strategy. He will enter Landwehr’s money-line only if it drifts to +235 or longer, calling anything above +250 “mandatory” because one underdog hit balances his entire round-robin portfolio. To protect against another Charriere split-decision, Tom already staked 1.5 units on the +3.5 points handicap (-150) that cashes if Landwehr reaches the cards without being finished. He reminded listeners that Charriere is the textbook 'young veteran' who fights to his opponent’s pace, leading to five career split calls, while Landwehr owns the better finishing resume from front-headlock chokes— a danger area because Charriere turtles in scrambles. Tom also plans to sprinkle the 8-1 split-decision prop, citing Nashville’s historically inconsistent local judging.

Michael Lurato sided with Nate Landwehr as a live underdog in Nashville, noting three key betting angles. First, Charriere’s chronic low-volume style— “keeps it in second gear” — regularly turns clear wins into razor-thin rounds, a habit that has produced multiple split-decisions on his Cage Warriors tape. Second, Landwehr historically pours it on late; Lurato referenced scorecards showing Landwehr almost always wins Round 3 while Charriere routinely loses it. Fighting in his home state of Tennessee only magnifies that late surge because, as Lurato put it, “this dude is going to fight for your money until he can’t fight no more.” Finally, close rounds in a partisan building favor the hometown fighter, so Lurato grabbed Landwehr money-line at +220 and recommended the +3.5-point handicap (-120) as insurance: if Landwehr merely survives he likely wins the third and covers the spread even in a 29-28 loss.