Kenny G labeled Cleveland a potential “dog of the day” at +150 in Queens. He likes Gavin Williams, who carries a 3.33 ERA and is coming off six shutout innings versus Minnesota, to outduel David Peterson. While Peterson has been sharp, Kenny highlighted the Mets’ fading stick: only 2.8 runs per game over their last six and now 22nd in batting average. Cleveland’s bats remain light overall but have produced at least three runs in five of six, with Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan pacing an uptick. Crucially, the Guardians bullpen holds a 3.60 ERA compared to the Mets’ 3.81 mark that has climbed of late. Add in New York’s 27-27-3 home O/U record and Kenny sees enough paths for Cleveland to steal one, making the plus-money attractive. He also gave secondary leans to the full-game under 8 and NRFI, but the moneyline upset is the primary play.

Lindquist recommended betting Gavin Williams to allow over 2.5 earned runs. While acknowledging the right-hander’s strikeout upside, he pointed out that his own simulations showed Williams giving up at least three before Cleveland turns things over to a bullpen that has looked far shakier without Emmanuel Clase. Lindquist referenced the 46.5 % hard-hit rate and .276 xBA the Mets just produced off David Peterson as a sign the New York lineup is making authoritative contact and could push Williams past the modest total.

Bill Harrelson recommended Brayan Rocchio to record more than 0.5 total bases against the Mets. Rocchio has cashed this prop in eight of his last nine outings and 14 of his last 20 (70%), including a two-base effort in yesterday’s series opener. Although his full-season hit rate sits at 50%, Harrelson noted the rookie’s recent surge on the right side of the game-log chart and his improved numbers versus right-handed pitching, the handedness he will see Tuesday. Rocchio averages about four plate appearances per game, giving multiple chances to scratch out a single or better. With every major DFS app listing the same 0.5 base number, Harrelson believes the over is the sharp side.

Kenny G advised a small play on Cleveland at +165, arguing that the Mets have not earned –200 favorite status. The Guardians have won five of six and just stole a 7-6 game at Citi Field. Logan Allen (7-9, 4.06 ERA) is coming off seven strong innings of two-run ball against Colorado, and though Cleveland’s bullpen is not elite, it remains serviceable. New York counters with Clay Holmes (9-6, 3.45 ERA), who lasted only 3.2 frames while giving up four runs to San Diego in his last start and has been inconsistent all season. The Mets bullpen has regressed and the offense has averaged a middling 4.4 runs over its past six, despite the league’s highest payroll. While New York sports an MLB-best 38-18 home record, Kenny cannot justify laying 2-to-1 juice with their form and prefers the Guardians’ plus-money price. Total of 8 is a stay-away.

Lindquist prefers taking a shot on a Pete Alonso home-run prop rather than the Mets –1.5 line Monday. The matchup is against rookie right-hander Slade Cecconi (mis-pronounced Chaconi) whose limited MLB sample shows below-average strike-out ability and a fly-ball profile—traits that play into Alonso’s pull-side power. Lindquist noted he makes Alonso’s true odds closer to +290 and therefore will only fire if books hang +320 or longer, calling that price the tipping point where Alonso’s expected value edges out the alternative of betting the Mets’ run line.

Bill Harrelson said Jose Ramirez is a smash play for the higher than 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs prop against the Mets. DraftKings already has the over juiced to –135 while Underdog is still even money, giving bettors free line value. Ramirez has cleared this number in five straight games, in eight of his last ten, and in 16 of his last 19 (84%), producing five and six combined stats the past two nights. He has topped 1.5 in each of his last three meetings with New York (3, 6, 2) and owns a .429 batting average with a .500 OBP in eight career plate appearances versus projected left-handed starter Joey Lucchesi. For 2025 he has cashed this prop in 60% of 108 games, matching the 60% rate from 2024, giving a 276-game sample at that same success rate. He has gone over in five of his last six road games (2.7 average) and is batting .345 versus lefties compared to .300 overall. Harrelson expects roughly five plate appearances and likes the switch-hitter to keep the heater alive.