Sean Zerillo highlighted Luana Pinheiro by decision at +550 as the week’s lone money-line underdog he projects value on. Zerillo expects a mostly striking affair—Pennington averages just 0.4 takedowns per 15 minutes—and noted that Pennington’s volume counts for little with judges because she has registered only one knockdown in 11 UFC years. Pinheiro, five years younger, throws harder singles and can mix the occasional takedown, which Zerillo says is enough to steal two rounds in a matchup he already pegs to go the distance 69% of the time (market implied 61%). He would still nibble Pinheiro straight up to +290 but prefers the decision prop for the 15% implied win probability swing.

Andy Lang said Pennington was an automatic bet here, calling the matchup “Pennington all day.” Lang thinks Pinheiro is only dangerous in the opening five minutes – once the fight spills into Round 2 she fades badly and becomes, in his words, “a dead woman walking.” Pennington, by contrast, is a pace-driven veteran who just went toe-to-toe with Amanda Ribas and owns a win over Carla Esparza. Because Pennington never gases and is notoriously hard to finish, Lang expects her to absorb the early storm, then out-volume a winded Pinheiro for a comfortable decision. He is betting the Pennington moneyline and considers it one of the simpler handicaps on the card.

Matty Betss highlighted the Under 2.5 rounds at +350 as the sneaky way to attack Luana Pinheiro versus Tisha Torres. He priced Torres roughly –275 himself and admitted her decision equity is high, yet prefers the total because the matchup sets up for an attritional finish. Torres throws relentless volume, stays in her opponent’s face, and can pile up damage even without one-punch power, while Pinheiro’s gas tank has betrayed her against far lesser competition. Betss can see two finishing paths: Pinheiro lands something huge in her customary six-minute burst or, more likely, she fades and Torres breaks her late for a standing TKO. Given the cardio questions and divergent win conditions, Betss believes the +350 Under offers far more value than betting either woman straight.

MMA Guru said Tecia Pennington will win a 29-28 decision over Luana Pinheiro. He pointed to Torres’ historically high pace, slick scrambling and underrated strength despite being one of the smaller strawweights. Guru argued Torres has never been cleanly out-grappled, citing her split-decision ‘robberies’ versus Mackenzie Dern and Tabatha Ricci as proof judges, not opponents, beat her. Pinheiro, meanwhile, has been finished multiple times and had to resort to awkward tactics against Randa Markos. Fighting in the small Apex cage should favor Torres’ ability to pressure and rack up volume over three rounds, making her a money-line and decision-prop target.

Kunath ultimately sided with the seasoned Tecia Pennington (referred to as Tisha Pennington in the audio) to win a clear decision over Luana Pinheiro. Pennington’ superior fight IQ, cage generalship, and third-round cardio give her edge-to-edge advantages. Pinheiro has slowed badly late in previous bouts and, in Kunath’s words, seems to ‘look for ways out’—citing the illegal-upkick incident against Randa Markos and the disputed split win over Michelle Waterson. Pennington, on the other hand, consistently moves forward, mixes takedowns, and maintains a high work rate that judges reward. Kunath sees Pennington banking rounds on volume and positional control while Pinheiro fades, making the veteran by decision the sensible play.

Sniper said he will pick Tecia Pennington to win but will have ZERO DraftKings exposure to her $9,300 salary. Pennington has reached a decision in 19 of 21 career bouts, averages only 85 DK points in victories, and shows almost no finishing upside. At 34 years old the wheels could fall off at any time, so Sniper would rather let the field eat that price tag. Instead he advised sprinkling the $6,900 Luana Pinheiro as a salary-saving punt. Pinheiro’s game is heavily front-loaded—her takedown/control metrics fall 80% after round one—but three rounds of activity or a surprise submission could land her on the optimal lineup on a slate with limited cheap targets.

Daniel “Gumby” Vreeland said Tecia Pennington is still an elite point-fighter despite the name change and recent layoff, making her a justified −345 favorite. He pointed to Pennington’s 10-2 record in decisions, the hand-speed edge she showed even in competitive losses to Loopy Godinez and Tabatha Ricci, and her 64% takedown-defense rate that neutralized Ricci’s judo. Gumby emphasized that Luana Pinheiro’s three-fight skid coincided with opponents refusing to be bullied in the clinch; Pinheiro’s last UFC takedown landed in April 2023. With Pinheiro’s control-heavy style blunted, Vreeland expects a typical Pennington stick-and-move striking performance and advised betting her by decision to squeeze extra value out of a hefty money-line.