Dan Alexander leaned toward the Los Angeles Chargers clearing their 9.5-win total. He argued the 2025 slate is not materially tougher than last year’s ‘cake’ schedule, pointing out a mid-season bye and only one elite opponent (Kansas City) before it. PFF grades back his optimism: Jim Harbaugh inherits the No.10 offensive line, a top-10 secondary, and a defensive front that improved to 19th after adding Khalil Mack–style depth pieces. Alexander expects Harbaugh to deploy a ground-and-pound committee led by new signing Najee Harris, which should control tempo and keep the defense fresh. With proven coach/QB continuity, ample cap space for an in-season WR pickup, and “iron-sharpens-iron” AFC West tests that harden the roster, he sees 10+ wins as the most likely outcome and would never consider the under.

Dan Alexander said the Packers are a full game mis-priced at 9.5 wins and called the current number a "strong over bet." He pointed out that Green Bay still posted an 11-6 record last season even though Jordan Love played hurt after the early-season Brazil game, which limited both his mobility and the offense’s ceiling. Alexander argued that a healthy Love plus an "embarrassment of riches" at wide receiver—thanks to a 2025 draft that finally prioritized pass-catchers—gives Matt LaFleur all the weapons he needs in a spread-the-ball attack that doesn’t rely on a single alpha like Davante Adams. He also cited four scheduled prime-time games as evidence the league expects this roster to compete. In a division he considers the toughest outside the AFC West, Alexander labeled Detroit an over-valued favorite and prefers Green Bay to win the NFC North at +260 to +290, with legitimate Super Bowl upside if everything breaks right.

Dan Alexander said he is only leaning to the under 10.5 wins because he cannot shake the number of unknowns still circling the 49ers. San Francisco went 6-11 last year despite an 11.5 win total thanks to brutal injury luck, a 2-5 record in one-score games and several nasty scheduling spots. While the 2025 slate is projected to be the league’s easiest and San Francisco owns a top-three rest differential, Alexander worries that Brock Purdy now has to justify a huge new contract, Christian McCaffrey’s return to form is no sure thing and the wide-receiver room looks completely different after letting Deebo Samuel walk. He called Robert Saleh a top-two defensive coordinator but still questioned whether an over-adjusted market (sharps pounding the over) has inflated the number. Final stance: a tepid lean to the under rather than a play.

Dan Alexander leaned toward the Jaguars’ regular-season win total going over 7.5 but advised waiting a few weeks to pounce in the live market. His case: 1) Jacksonville was 2-9 in one-score games last season, a number that typically regresses toward .500 and could add roughly four wins on its own. 2) The 2025 slate rates top-10 easiest to open the year and features a five-game stretch late (Raiders, Cardinals, Titans, Colts twice) that he believes could be a clean sweep if the new staff gels. 3) An entirely new regime—first-time GM, HC, OC, and DC—means last year’s 28th-ranked defensive line and 26th-ranked offensive line numbers may not be predictive. 4) Defensive improvement is plausible if they trim the near six yards per play they allowed in 2024. Alexander’s plan is to monitor the first 3-4 games against tougher opponents (Bengals, 49ers, Chiefs) and, if Jacksonville starts slowly, buy an in-season total that could drop to 6.5, then ride the softer back half of the schedule.

Dan Alexander revealed he has already bet Los Angeles to win the NFC at 8-to-1 and recommends a sprinkle for anyone with the bankroll to handle a season-long future. He argues the conference is wide-open, and the Rams’ profile—elite coaching, proven playoff quarterback, and an offense that added Devante Adams to pair with breakout star Puka Nacua—gives them legitimate Super Bowl equity. Alexander further likes that the Rams’ toughest matchups (Eagles, Ravens) come on the road, saving home-field advantage for more winnable games, and that their favorable rest differential should help in January seeding tiebreakers. He believes odds closer to +600 are fair, so +800 offers meaningful value.

Dan Alexander said the Rams are a clear over on 9.5 wins and urged bettors to grab the number before it moves to 10. His conviction comes from several angles: Los Angeles has beaten its preseason win total in four of the last five years, continually defying market skepticism about Matthew Stafford’s health and Sean McVay’s scheme. The 2025-26 schedule is littered with soft opponents (Panthers, Cardinals twice, Titans, Colts, Buccaneers) and the Rams own a top-three league-wide rest differential, giving McVay extra prep time in multiple spots. Alexander also likes the offensive upgrades: Puka Nacua has emerged as a "top-five NFL wideout" in his eyes, and veteran Devante Adams replaces the often-injured Cooper Kupp without a major production drop-off. With Stafford still willing to "grip it and rip it" and a young defense another year older, Alexander projects 11 wins and sees nine and a half as "crazy low" even if injuries strike again.

Dan Alexander recommended betting the Dolphins under 8.5 wins, calling the juice to the under 'perfectly lined.' He argued Miami is really a 7- or 8-win roster unless something drastically changes. Alexander’s core reasoning: (1) He views a Tua Tagovailoa injury as almost inevitable—'it walks like a duck… Tua is going to get injured'—and questioned the Zach Wilson backup plan. (2) Despite enjoying a top-five easiest schedule and top-five rest-differential last season, the Dolphins still could not finish above .500 (6-5 in Tua starts, PFF grades 25th offense/17th defense). (3) Ho-hum offseason: continuity means 'same old' coaching, while free agency subtracted more than it added—shipping out Jonnu Smith, losing Jalen Ramsey, and replacing him with safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, whom he doubts is a difference-maker. (4) Alexander believes the franchise needs a regime change, so he plans to fade Miami in individual spots throughout the year. All of that leads him to play the season-long under on wins.

Dan Alexander would only play Houston’s season win total to the over, calling 9.5 too low. He cited C.J. Stroud’s talent, a beefed-up receiving corps, and the arrival of C.J. Gardner-Johnson to an already elite cornerback tandem as reasons the Texans can smother opposing passing attacks. Alexander plans to target Texans team-total overs and opponent team-total unders, especially against pass-heavy offenses. While acknowledging a tougher slate against the AFC and NFC West, he still projects 10 wins thanks to a weak division and Ryans’ defensive mindset. Championship experience, improved coaching, and a rising quarterback make the over the only side for him.

Dan Alexander said he is betting the Detroit Lions to finish UNDER the posted 10.5-win total. He argued that losing offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, and five additional assistants destroys the continuity that drove last year’s success. PFF graded Detroit No. 2 in offense and No. 5 in defense in 2024, but Alexander doubts Dan Campbell can replicate Johnson’s weekly game-planning or Glenn’s in-game adjustments. He pointed to the Lions drawing the league’s third-hardest strength of schedule, citing an opening gauntlet of at Packers, Bears, at Ravens, Browns, Bengals, Chiefs, and Buccaneers before the bye as a potential confidence killer. Without the schematic edge they enjoyed in 2024, he believes any early skid could snowball in a locker room now dealing with Super-Bowl-or-bust expectations, making 11 wins an uphill climb. Alexander graded it as a smaller 1-2% bankroll play at 10.5 but said it would become “huge” if books repost 11.5.

Dan Alexander threw out a divisional futures bet, saying he does not believe Kansas City wins the West this season and that Denver can take the crown at +350 to +400. He noted the division's "iron sharpens iron" nature, Denver's top-tier defense, and his expectation that the Broncos will split in-division games while piling up non-conference wins. He even allowed for a resurgent Chargers squad but still likes the Broncos' value, calling it a "gauntlet thrown down" prediction that Denver finally ends the Chiefs' reign.

Dan Alexander called Denver over 9.5 wins one of his strongest personal bets. He highlighted that the Broncos ranked second‐best in yards-per-attempt allowed both on the ground and through the air last season, a metric he leans on heavily when handicapping. Alexander argued the team will not have to "live and die with Bo Nix in Year 2" because the defense can still carry games. He expects a 2-0 start and can easily pick out another eight victories on the slate, giving Denver another 10-win season even with modest offensive growth.

Dan Alexander outlined a weekly betting strategy: play the OVER on opponent team totals—especially against bad teams and in first quarters—whenever they face Cincinnati. His logic is two-fold: the Bengals’ defense was 21st on PFF and "did nothing" to improve, and their quick-strike, pass-heavy offense creates extra possessions and shoot-out game scripts. He specifically plans to hammer Cleveland’s team total in Week 1 and Jacksonville’s later in the season before the market inflates the numbers.

Dan Alexander said he is betting the Bengals to clear the 9.5-win bar. His case hinges on how unlucky they were in 2024: seven of their eight defeats came by one score, so even a 50-percent swing in those coin-flip finishes would have produced an 11-6 record, while winning them all would have meant 14-3. Alexander acknowledged the defense is still shaky (PFF had them 21st) and Zach Taylor remains a drag, but he expects Joe Burrow to be healthy enough for a bounce-back year and thinks Cincinnati will "punch down" inside the AFC North by sweeping the Browns and Steelers. He believes the line should be 10.5, giving bettors a full win of cushion to the over.

Dan Alexander said the Panthers are a year-two buy, recommending Over 6.5 wins at roughly even money. Carolina’s defense allowed the highest percentage of opponent scoring drives last season and finished 32nd in most metrics, yet the club still eked out five victories while juggling Bryce Young and Andy Dalton. Alexander argued the unit 'cannot be any worse' and should climb now that star CB Jaycee Horn is healthy, Donte Jackson was re-signed and interior help (DTs, LBs) was added. More important to him is rare continuity: Dave Canales, his coordinators and GM all return, giving the roster the same system for the first time in years. The 2025 schedule ranks top-10 easiest, the NFC South remains weak, and Alexander projects 7–8 wins. He also expects Carolina to be an early-season ATS darling before the market catches up.

Dan Alexander said the Cardinals’ 8.5-win total is at least a game too high and urged bettors to look UNDER. He thinks the number should be 7.5 because almost every key variable is a question mark. Alexander worries most about Kyler Murray’s surgically-repaired knee after last year’s obvious mobility issues and the QB’s habit of burning fantasy owners when he isn’t 100 percent. He’s also skeptical that 29-year-old James Conner can log a third straight 1,000-yard season before age-related decline sets in. While he applauded the additions of Josh Sweat, Tuli Tuipulotu and L.J. Collier for an upgraded front seven, he noted the second half of the schedule (Cowboys, Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, Bengals in December) is brutal. Division games loom large because he’s not sure whether the 49ers will look like contenders or the messy late-season squad from 2024, and he remains unconvinced by Brock Purdy. With so many unknowns Alexander prefers a wait-and-see approach but calls the UNDER a “heavy lean” and would only change his stance if Murray looks fully healthy in Weeks 1-2.

Dan Alexander leaned to the under 9.5 wins for Washington, saying he would have "smashed" an under at 10.5 but can only make a smaller play at the current number. His case revolved around several regression flags: Washington owns a top-five worst rest differential with three separate short-week games (Packers in Week 2, Cowboys in Week 7, Eagles in Week 16), and the final month stacks Eagles-Cowboys-Eagles with virtually no extra rest. He noted the franchise has not posted back-to-back double-digit win seasons since Joe Gibbs in 1991, a 34-year drought that makes repeating 11-6 historically unlikely. Alexander also expects some sophomore pullback from phenom QB Jaden Daniels, drawing a parallel to C.J. Stroud’s statistical dip in Year 2. Finally, the Commanders finished top-five in several luck metrics last season, a signal that one-score and turnover fortune could swing the other way. All of that pushes him to fade Washington’s win total, even after acknowledging offseason additions like Kinlaw and Deebo Samuel.