Tim Welch said he is siding with Max Holloway to defeat Dustin Poirier at UFC 318. Welch acknowledged that Poirier has already beaten Holloway twice, noting that “beating someone three times in a row is f***ing hard,” but laid out several reasons he expects a different result this time. First, the bout is at lightweight, which Welch believes will help Holloway’s durability: “His chin and body are gonna hold up way better at 155.” He contrasted this matchup with Holloway’s last fight, where Ilia Topuria’s featherweight power caught him clean. Welch also pointed out that this is Holloway’s first fight back after being knocked out, yet he still leans Holloway because Poirier won’t have a size advantage and Holloway’s legendary volume striking should add up over five rounds. Although he had not checked the betting line yet, Welch made it clear he would pick Holloway straight up to win, implying value if the odds are even or Holloway is an underdog.

Madlab Michael Lurato advised taking the Fight Goes To Decision prop for the BMF main event. He reiterated that Dustin Poirier will have trouble crashing the pocket against Holloway’s "extremely surgical" footwork and combination striking, forcing Poirier to fight much more cautiously than he did in wild exchanges with Justin Gaethje. Lurato argued both men remain exceptionally durable – Holloway has never been stopped by strikes and Poirier has absorbed heavier damage yet still owns an iron chin – so a finish would likely come only if one fighter obliges a late-fight phone-booth brawl. With totals already juiced to the over 4.5 rounds (-170) and the moneyline essentially a pick’em, Lurato sees superior value on the plus-money decision market, projecting a high-volume, but controlled, 25-minute affair that lands on the cards roughly 70-75% of the time.

Dan Tom said he is backing Max Holloway even though Poirier is 2-0 against him and will have the New Orleans crowd behind him. Tom argued Holloway is the fresher, faster and more improved fighter at this point in their careers. He pointed to Holloway’s sharper footwork, newly developed power, ability to kick effectively while retreating, and the Southpaw looks he flashed while out-dueling Arnold Allen. Tom added that Holloway still makes in-fight defensive reads, citing sequences where he adjusted to Arnold Allen and Justin Gaethje combinations on the very next exchange. While acknowledging Holloway’s 1-3 mark versus UFC southpaws and 1-2 record in rematches, Tom said those losses were context-heavy (early-career McGregor, short-camp 2019 Poirier). He praised Team Holloway’s consistent game-planning, framed Poirier’s best path as countering early to “take away the builder’s materials,” and concluded Holloway owns more tactical outs over 25 minutes. At an essentially pick’em price, Tom recommended betting Holloway, leaning toward a decision in what he expects to be a high-level, chess-match striking affair.

Madlab Michael Lurato said he ultimately sides with Max Holloway at the current -130 price for the UFC 318 BMF main event. Lurato acknowledged that he normally refuses to bet against either fighter, but argued Holloway is the more reliable investment at this stage. He pointed out that their two previous meetings (2012 and 2019) are too dated to be meaningful, noting both men are very different fighters now. Holloway is still only 32, continues to post trademark off-the-charts output, and repeatedly produces "another master-class" whenever critics suggest mileage might be catching up. Lurato believes Poirier has absorbed the heavier damage toll during his recent lightweight wars, whereas Holloway’s high-volume point-fighting style should profit across five rounds. With the totals market sitting at 4.5 rounds (over -170/under +140), Lurato expects the bout to see deep waters, a scenario that historically favors Holloway’s cardio and pace on the scorecards. Given the essentially pick’em moneyline and Holloway’s perceived edge in volume and durability, Lurato advised taking the slight favorite before any late steam pushes the number wider.

Welch leaned toward Max Holloway in Poirier’s retirement fight. He noted Holloway is only 33, historically sturdier at lightweight, and training with southpaw boxer Keoni Diggs to mirror Poirier’s stance. Although Holloway was just KO’d by Ilia Topuria at 145, Welch believes the extra 10 lbs helps his chin and output. Poirier, 36, has traded wins and losses in his last four and may be more focused on a farewell performance. Welch sees Holloway’s cardio and volume carrying him to victory.

MMA Guru forecasted a near-shutout for Max Holloway, saying the Hawaiian is poised to win 50-45 (possibly 49-46) over a fading Dustin Poirier. Guru argued Poirier’s striking has slipped since his peak Dan Hooker/McGregor run, pointing to a round-two head-kick KO loss to Justin Gaethje, a surprisingly competitive bout with Benoit Saint Denis, and early stings from Islam Makhachev. He believes Poirier’s recent camps over-emphasized wrestling defense, dulling the slick pocket work that once defined him. Meanwhile Holloway just embarrassed Gaethje on the feet, proving his trademark volume and accuracy still translate at 155. Guru added that moving up after the Topuria knockout should help Holloway’s chin by eliminating the brutal featherweight cut. Mental edges also tilt to Holloway: Guru is convinced Poirier will retire in front of the Louisiana crowd, dampening his willingness to dig deep, whereas Holloway is chasing another title shot and talking future matchups with Ilya Topuria and Charles Oliveira. With Poirier unlikely to wrestle, Guru expects a pure stand-up battle where Holloway throws north of 200 significant strikes, stays one step ahead defensively, and sweeps most rounds. Betting angles he endorsed include Holloway moneyline, Holloway by decision, and wider-margin props such as Holloway by unanimous decision or Holloway ‑3.5 rounds.

MMA Guru picked Max Holloway to win the trilogy with Dustin Poirier by decision. He is ‘sure’ Poirier will announce his retirement in front of the Louisiana crowd, expecting that to dull Poirier’s killer instinct and willingness to pour on a finish. Guru also said elite veterans often show each other extra respect, leading to fights that go the distance. Because Holloway is not retiring and historically maintains high volume for five rounds, Guru foresees Holloway out-landing Poirier in extended exchanges while surviving any early scare. The recommendation is Holloway moneyline, Holloway by decision, and the fight-goes-the-distance market.

Michael Bisping warned that Max Holloway’s chin may be compromised after being knocked out by Ilia Topuria, noting some fighters are never the same once they suffer a devastating KO. In what he expects to be a largely stand-up battle with Dustin Poirier, Bisping said bettors should seriously weigh Holloway’s potential post-knockout vulnerability before backing the Hawaiian. He contrasted the possibility of diminished durability with Holloway’s trademark volume and fire, but concluded that uncertainty around how Holloway absorbs shots now is a key risk variable for money-line and prop markets such as Poirier by KO/TKO.

Bedtime MMA laid out a round-by-round script that sets up an in-fight wagering angle. He expects Dustin Poirier’s best minutes to come in Rounds 1-2, powered by sharp boxing combinations and his trademark calf-kicks, but insists those kicks will not cripple Holloway because the Hawaiian has already absorbed Volkanovski, Aldo and Gaethje leg attacks without folding. Holloway, meanwhile, will answer every Poirier flurry with multi-strike counters and—crucially— knees, elbows and spinning back-kicks to the body. Citing Poirier’s noticeable cardio dip when Charles Oliveira repeatedly kneed him to the mid-section, Bedtime MMA predicts a similar slowdown starting late in Round 2. Once Poirier’s pace drops, Holloway’s superior volume, footwork and gas tank should snowball. Because of that momentum swing, Bedtime MMA advised waiting until the live line re-opens after Round 2 to take Holloway moneyline, or targeting Holloway Round 3, Round 4, Round 5, and Round 3-Decision props that will carry juicier odds than pre-fight numbers. He framed it as “the safest way to extract value” rather than laying the full-fight price upfront.

Bedtime MMA said bettors should back Max Holloway to win by unanimous decision (projected 49-46) with a live chance for a late 4th- or 5th-round TKO. His confidence is rooted in several factors: • Holloway’s striking has reached another level – elite Muay Thai combos, added power, and far sharper defense than in their 2019 meeting. • Underrated grappling: strong guillotine, improved takedown defense, and historically hard to hold down (Volkanovski and Topuria failed to keep him grounded). • Recent form edge: Holloway dominated Justin Gaethje and was competitive against Ilia Topuria, while Poirier was “schooled” by Gaethje and looked slower, stiffer, and banged-up versus Islam Makhachev (broken nose, torn knee, cracked ribs). • Decline indicators for Poirier: reduced mobility, shot hips/knees, and susceptibility to head-kick/overhand counters after absorbing heavy damage in recent fights. • Expected fight flow: Poirier dangerous in R1-R2 with power and calf-kicks, but Holloway’s stance-switching, volume, body-knees, spinning back-kicks, and relentless pace should swamp him from R3 on, potentially re-breaking Poirier’s nose and draining his cardio. Because Holloway’s chin remains “goaded” and Poirier’s early KO threat fades, Bedtime MMA prefers betting Holloway by decision at plus money, with a small hedge on Holloway R4/R5 TKO if you want a bigger payday.

Bedtime MMA tipped Max Holloway to stop Dustin Poirier late, specifically calling for a body-shot TKO. He said Poirier’s chin looks "shoddy" after consecutive wars with Justin Gaethje and Ilia Topuria, plus the knee tear, broken nose and knock-downs he absorbed against Islam Makhachev. Holloway, meanwhile, has properly filled out at 155 and now owns the speed edge, stronger frame and noticeably more pop on knees, elbows and spinning kicks. The host highlighted several sequences from their 2019 rematch where Holloway pinned Poirier and landed flurries, arguing those openings will be easier to exploit with a full lightweight camp. He noted Poirier has been finished in most of his losses, so the trend, combined with Poirier’s slowing footwork and lingering injuries, makes a late Holloway finish (+450 range) more attractive than the decision prop. He is comfortable betting Holloway moneyline now and sprinkling the Round 4-5 or ‘Holloway by KO/TKO’ markets for extra upside.

Bedtime MMA said he is backing Max Holloway to defeat Dustin Poirier in July’s BMF title head-liner at UFC 318. He argued Holloway now enjoys a clear speed advantage at 155 and, unlike their 2019 meeting, has bulked up properly for the weight class instead of taking a short-notice jump. The host highlighted multiple sequences from the rematch where Holloway pinned Poirier against the fence and landed extended combinations, suggesting the volume striker can replicate that success with a full lightweight frame. He also questioned Poirier’s durability after recent firefights with Justin Gaethje and the damage absorbed against Ilia Topuria, believing Holloway’s cardio and chin hold up better over five rounds. Put together, he views Holloway as the sharper, fresher side and an early betting target.

Bedtime MMA said Max Holloway should defeat Dustin Poirier at UFC 318, projecting a 48-47 style decision rather than a finish. He argued Holloway will enter 155 pounds properly bulked, giving him more pop than their last meeting while retaining a clear speed edge. Poirier, meanwhile, looked slower and injury-prone against Islam Makhachev—tearing a knee, breaking a hand, nose and possibly orbital—which the tout believes signals age catching up. Holloway’s durability is still elite outside of the Gaethje knockout, and at lightweight his refreshed chin should hold up to Poirier’s power. Expect Holloway to control range with oblique stomps, calf kicks, double-jab-crosses and spinning back-kicks, forcing Poirier to lunge forward for sporadic combinations. The fight could resemble the Arnold Allen bout: Holloway clip-farming, staying cagey, piling volume while avoiding extended pocket exchanges. Bettors are advised to lean Holloway moneyline and decision props, fading Poirier’s retirement narrative and banking on higher output, better cardio and fewer lingering injuries.