Everett laid the 1.5 with Chicago off Caleb Williams’ breakout (19-of-28, 298 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT). He views the Raiders’ offense as one-dimensional—only 3.1 yards per carry—and unlikely to keep pace if Williams pushes tempo. Chicago’s defensive front also faces a Vegas line surrendering 28.6% pressure, giving the Bears paths to cover even if the rookie QB regresses slightly.

Doug Burrell recommended Bears +1.5, arguing Chicago’s high-variance offense led by Caleb Williams can swing a close contest. While the Bears’ run defense has been gashed for more than two yards before contact, Burrell emphasized that Las Vegas still struggles to run the ball and owns one of the league’s worst pass-blocking lines. He flagged market support—roughly 75% of tickets and 85% of handle on Chicago—yet the spread has not budged off Raiders -1.5, a signal that sharp and public money are aligned. If the Bears give Williams a few clean pockets and avoid catastrophic mistakes, Burrell believes his play-making upside outweighs the Raiders’ offensive inconsistencies, making the points valuable.

Vic Tafur laid the single point with Chicago, noting Las Vegas running back Ashton Jeanty is the lone ball carrier with 25-plus rushes averaging negative yards before contact per attempt (-0.1). Without push up front the Raiders cannot exploit a Bears defense motivated by league-wide disrespect, so Tafur expects Chicago to prevail.

After three straight successful fades, Isaiah Sirois flipped and took Over 65.5 rushing yards for Ashton Jeanty at ‑110 on BetMGM. The line has finally dipped from the 70s even though Jeanty’s issues are schedule-driven: Las Vegas ranks dead last in run-block win rate (65%) but has faced the 2nd-, 3rd- and 11th-best run defenses. Chicago ranks just 22nd in run-stop win rate (28%), the softest front Jeanty has seen. Despite miserable blocking, he leads the NFL in broken tackles, sits 12th in yards after contact (93) and averages 2.0 yards after contact per rush (20th), while a scant 1.1 yards before contact (3rd worst) shows how often he is hit in the backfield. Recent Bears opponents lit them up on the ground—Jahmyr Gibbs 7.8 YPC, David Montgomery 5.4, Jordan Mason 4.5, Javonte Williams 7.6—so Sirois expects Jeanty to clear the mid-60s with a friendlier line of scrimmage.

Kelly relayed that the SportsLine simulator likes Chicago +1.5 at Las Vegas and projects Under 47.5 to cash nearly 60 percent of the time. The Raiders have been dominated in the trenches: Geno Smith has already absorbed 12 sacks (second-most in the league) and prized running back Ashton Jeanty is stuck at 3.1 YPC. Vegas has covered just three of its last nine at home. Chicago did not allow a single sack of Caleb Williams in Sunday’s win over Dallas and forced four turnovers. The Bears have also taken the last two head-to-head meetings, including a 2021 victory in Vegas. With the Raiders’ offensive line leaking and Chicago’s pass protection surging, the model forecasts a tight, lower-scoring contest that favors grabbing the points with the Bears.