According to Kelly, the SportsLine model expects first-round pick Matthew Golden to make an immediate splash by leading Green Bay in receiving yards against Detroit. The projection hinges on the Packers’ long-standing need for a true alpha receiver and the Lions’ shaky pass defense after losing both coordinators. If the script plays out with Green Bay forcing turnovers and building a lead, Jordan Love should funnel targets to Golden, making him a sneaky Week 1 DFS play at what is likely to be a depressed salary.

Kelly reported that the model likes Green Bay ‑2.5 (now a point stronger after the Micah Parsons acquisition) to handle Detroit at Lambeau. The Commanders’ playoff upset showed pressuring Jared Goff forces mistakes—he coughed it up four times—and Green Bay fits that profile: fourth in takeaways and top-7 in sacks last year despite blitzing at the league’s second-lowest rate. Detroit, meanwhile, lost both coordinators and three-time All-Pro center Frank Ragnow, weakening protection. The model forecasts the Packers defense to win the pressure and turnover battle, while newly drafted wideout Matthew Golden provides the true WR1 the offense lacked. Simulations have Green Bay covering nearly 60% of the time, with the 47.5-point Over cashing in a slight majority of runs.

Ross Kelly relayed that SportsLine's 10,000-simulation model made Bengals ‑5.5 one of its strongest Week 1 bets. The model expects a double-digit Cincinnati win because Joe Burrow is coming off a league-leading 4,918 yards and 43 TDs season with fewer than 10 interceptions, and the front office kept the NFL’s No. 1 passing attack intact by extending Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. On the other side, Cleveland finished 32nd in scoring in 2024, ranked last on third downs, committed the second-most turnovers, and landed bottom-five in rushing and red-zone efficiency. Its once-dominant defense also cratered to 27th in points allowed. Given that mismatch, the simulations have Cincinnati covering in well over half of outcomes.