Everett laid ‑7 with Denver on Monday night because Cincinnati must start Jake Browning after Joe Burrow’s injury. Browning’s first relief appearance produced only 53 rushing yards on 21 team attempts and three second-quarter fumbles (by others) put the Bengals in a 34-3 hole. Denver’s defense ranks eighth in EPA/play and should overwhelm a one-dimensional offense, especially at altitude. With Cincy unable to run, Everett sees limited paths to a back-door cover.

Vic Tafur made Cincinnati his upset special, grabbing +7.5 and +300 moneyline because Denver quarterback Bo Nix has hit only 33 % (8-of-24) of throws 10+ yards downfield and is 8-for-20 for 54 yards, zero TDs and two interceptions when pressured. With Jake Browning playing cleaner football, Tafur expects the Bengals to win the quarterback battle and leave Denver 3-1.

Richard Janvrin advised taking the under on Bo Nix’s 220.5 passing-yards line at -112. Nix has posted 176, 206 and 153 yards through the first three weeks and ranks 26th in YPA at 5.6. Cincinnati’s porous pass defense did cough up 290 yards to Joe Flacco and 271 to Trevor Lawrence, but it also held Carson Wentz to 173. Janvrin expects a similar game script: Denver’s defense and run game should create a lead, capping Nix’s volume. The Bengals mix Cover-1, Cover-3 and Cover-6 on 81% of snaps; versus those shells Nix is just 39-of-60 for 333 yards (5.5 YPA) with two touchdowns and two picks. At his current efficiency he would need roughly 40 attempts to eclipse 220 yards, a workload Janvrin views as highly unlikely for a sizable favorite.

Anthony Dabbundo bet Cincinnati +7.5, calling the number a market overreaction to Joe Burrow’s calf injury and last week’s ugly showing with Jake Browning. He noted that the Bengals were –3.5 at home against Denver in Week 17 of 2024; even if you flip home field and dock six full points for the QB downgrade, you still never land on Broncos –7.5. Dabbundo does not trust a Denver offense that ranks 31st in offensive success rate, 26th in series-conversion rate, and produced only nine first downs on Sunday. With the Broncos unable to separate from anyone, he wants the touchdown and the hook with Cincinnati.