Matty Betss recommended attacking the submission markets instead of laying the heavy chalk on Nursulton Ruziboev’s money-line. Ruziboev owns 20 career tap-outs and routinely capitalizes when opponents shoot in panic after tasting his 6'5" frame and missile right hand. Betss expects Dustin Stoltzfus to wrestle immediately—Stoltzfus attempted 22 takedowns in his last three fights—and that opens the door for a guillotine or front-headlock series Ruziboev has flashed against regional foes. He compared Stoltzfus’ late-round submission losses to Rodolfo Vieira and Gerald Meerschaert as proof that the Penn State alum becomes vulnerable once cardio fades. Books are hanging +600 on any Ruziboev submission and a juicier +1300 on Round-1 sub; Betss sprinkled both, arguing the numbers mirror Denise Gomes’ mis-priced sub line from earlier in the card. He believes Stoltzfus either walks into a choke early or gets club-and-subbed after eating the inevitable right hand, making those longshot tickets the most efficient way to play the favorite.

MMA Guru advised siding with Nursulton Ruzaboev inside the distance, highlighting his 35-9 record, 6’5” frame and willingness to “cheat”—eye pokes, fence grabs—to tilt exchanges. At welterweight, Ruzaboev’s power was muted in a loss to Joaquin Buckley, but Guru thinks the Uzbek regains knockout pop at middleweight and can bully Stoltzfus in the clinch. He views Stoltzfus as scrappy yet ultimately out-gunned; the American was styled on by Bruno Ferreira—who resorted to spinning elbows out of boredom—and carries a middling UFC resume outside of a flash KO of Marc-Andre Barriault. Expect Ruzaboev to keep the fight standing, land long straight shots and knees, then finish with ground-and-pound if Stoltzfus wilts. ITD or round-1/2 props are the suggested angles.

Jeff Fox laid the chalk on Nersulton Ruziboev at –280, arguing the Uzbek’s size and finishing dynamism overwhelm Dustin Stoltzfus. Fox highlighted a five-inch height and one-inch reach edge plus a ridiculous 33 finishes in 35 wins (13 KOs, 20 subs) that make Ruziboev dangerous in every phase. He noted Stoltzfus is just 3-5 in the UFC and has been finished four times, while Ruziboev has stopped both of his Octagon victims inside two rounds. Fox sees the bout playing out on the feet where Ruziboev athleticism and power should crack Stoltzfus early, but added the favorite’s slick front-head submissions give him a fallback path if the American tries to wrestle. In Fox’s words: ‘far more dynamic, athletic, and bigger—plus a damn good finisher wherever the fight goes.’

Dan Tom advised passing on Dustin Stoltzfus pre-fight and instead hunting a juicier live number once Round 1 ends. Tom thinks the current +260 to +300 money-line is inflated because the smaller Apex cage and Stoltzfus’ clinch-heavy style give the underdog a real grinding path to a 29-28 decision if he can survive the early storm. Stoltzfus has quietly sharpened his feints, kick-punch combos and transitions while cross-training at Syndicate and Xtreme Couture, whereas Ruzaboyev remains a jab-only striker whose recent camp change to Marquez MMA has yet to demonstrate new wrinkles. Tom wants bettors to watch the end of Round 1: if Stoltzfus weathers the opening barrage—maybe even gets rocked but recovers—odds should still hang around +150 to +200. That is the moment to fire, because every extra minute favors the dog’s cardio, fence work and takedown attempts inside the cramped cage. Tom still expects to pick Ruzaboyev officially, but the live-bet window on Stoltzfus is the only exposure he is willing to stake with real money.

Gumby Vreeland grabbed Dustin Stoltzfus at +260 and even sprinkled the +600 decision prop, pointing to a glaring stylistic hole in Nersulton Ruzaboyev’s game. Ruzaboyev owns a 0% takedown-defense rate after being dragged down four times by Joaquin Buckley and only returning to his feet when Buckley ‘got bored.’ Vreeland argued Stoltzfus is a committed wrestler with crafty top control who can replicate that template. Seven of Ruzaboyev’s nine career losses are decisions where opponents blanketed him, a scenario Vreeland envisions if Stoltzfus chains takedowns early. He acknowledged Stoltzfus isn’t Buckley athletically, but feels the American’s willingness to ‘fight like a dog’ and maintain position makes him live to grind out 15 minutes, especially at this underdog price.

Kunath sided with the –300 favorite Nursulton Ruziboev to knock out Dustin Stoltzfuss. Ruziboev is the tallest middleweight on roster, wields a slight reach edge and owns nearly 50 pro fights with only two stoppage losses—none recently. Kunath likes Stoltzfuss’ willingness to take risks, but that same aggression has cost him: he was tied or leading versus Vieira, Meerschaert and Bruno Silva before making one mistake and getting finished each time. Against a 6'5'' finisher who lands at 57 % striking accuracy and rarely gets hurt, Kunath doubts Stoltzfuss can navigate 15 perfect minutes. He anticipates Stoltzfuss forcing exchanges to close distance, creating an opening for Ruziboev’s counter right to end the night. Lay the KO/TKO prop rather than the moneyline for a better price.

Sniper picked Nursulton Ruziboev to win but warned the –290 money line is too wide and insists on heavy exposure to both fighters in GPPs. Ruziboev carries one-punch power (20 career KOs) yet has shown virtually no defensive wrestling—Joaquin Buckley went 4-for-4 on takedowns and held him down for more than five minutes. That matters because Dustin Stoltzfus averages multiple takedowns per fight and has left the first round only once in his last four bouts, finishing Marc-Andre Barriault by KO and submitting Puna Soriano. At $9,000 for Ruziboev and $7,200 for Stoltzfus, the fight sports a –400 ITD and –130 Under 1.5 line, making it a near-mandatory stack. Sniper still favors Ruziboev’s explosiveness to keep the bout upright and score an early KO, but he believes Stoltzfus can smash value if his wrestling takes over after the first five minutes.