TheWeasle picked Jimmy Crute to submit Marcin Prachnio in round three. Prachnio’s movement and switch-stance kicks impress in flashes, but his "glass chin and no submission defense" remain glaring holes. Crute owns the better hands, superior wrestling and a dominant top game. The only red flag is Crute’s cardio—he gassed after nearly finishing Hodolfo Bellato last time out—but if he jabs forward, chops the leg, forces clinches on the fence and paces himself, TheWeasle thinks the takedowns come easily. Once on the mat, Crute should lock up a late choke or arm lock.

Jim Malaro expects the UFC to set Jimmy Crute up for a rebound finish in the Australian market. Prachnio owns ‘absolutely no ground game,’ so any takedown should lead to dominance for Crute, but Malaro still fears Crute’s habit of making huge striking mistakes. Given those extremes, he loves ‘under 2.5’ or ‘fight doesn’t go the distance’ and only leans to a Crute money-line ticket as insurance, refusing to back Prachnio in 2025. Bottom line: either Crute mauls him on the mat or Crute gets caught in a chaotic exchange—either way a stoppage is coming.

Sniper said Jimmy Crute is one of his favorite mid-tier DFS spends at $9,000. Crute attempts 4.0 takedowns per 15 minutes and draws Marcin Prachnio, who owns just 53 % career takedown defense and has been submitted multiple times. Sniper expects Crute to change levels early, rack up control and ground strikes, and ultimately finish by submission. While he acknowledged Crute’s shaky chin (0-2-2 in his last four) and will keep small hedge exposure to Prachnio for fluky KOs, he plans to be overweight on Crute because few lineups will reach him with several 9K studs drawing more ownership. A fast grappling finish could make Crute one of the three highest scorers on the slate.

Madlab Michael Lurato forecasted Jimmy Crute snapping his four-year winless skid by stopping Marcin Prachnio. Lurato dismissed Prachnio as a limited striker with a shaky chin—reminding listeners he cashed fading Prachnio against Sam Alvey—and argued Crute’s grappling and ground-and-pound give him multiple finishing routes. Although Crute’s cardio and durability are question marks, the Aussie still owns clear talent edges and should not need a full 15 minutes. The total is 2.5 rounds (under –155) with Crute –320. Dan Tom agreed the matchup profiles for an under but admitted Prachnio’s bizarre record scares him off heavy exposure. Lurato plans to play Crute inside the distance and may pair the Under 2.5 in parlays.

Kunath labeled Jimmy Crute an untrustworthy favorite but still sees a clear grappling edge over 35-year-old striker Marcin Prachnio. Prachnio stuffs only 47 % of takedowns and was submitted by Modestas Bukauskas via arm-triangle—hardly a noted submission specialist. Crute averages 4.8 takedown attempts per 15 minutes and owns five career subs, including a kimura of Michal Oleksiejczuk. Although Crute’s striking defense (41 %) makes him hittable, Prachnio’s lack of power—two finishes in seven UFC bouts—limits the danger. Kunath expects Crute to eat a few body kicks, change levels, drag Prachnio down, and lock up a choke inside Round 1 or 2. He cautioned bettors to keep stake size modest given Crute’s knack for self-sabotage but still endorsed Crute by submission as the sharp side.

Gumby Vreeland backed Jimmy Crute at –290 because Marcin Prachnio’s takedown defense is "a fish out of water on the mat." He pointed out that Prachnio surrendered a takedown to pure boxer Ike Villanueva and routinely coughs up 6-7 takedowns in other bouts. That liability collides with Crute’s underrated jiu-jitsu—this is the same Australian who heel-hooked Paul Craig in 2019 and owns four UFC submissions. While Crute hasn’t won since 2020 (0-3-2 stretch), Vreeland reminded listeners that Prachnio has been finished six times (four KOs, two subs) and still looks clueless once grounded. Expect Crute to drag him down early and either find a finish or bank dominant control minutes, making the favorite an obvious side for parlays.

MMA Guru leaned Prachnio, arguing Jimmy Crute still moves like he’s "stepping on LEGOs." Guru referenced Crute’s perennial-nerve TKO against Anthony Smith and said Prachnio is a "wicked striker" with elite calf kicks that will reopen that vulnerability. Prachnio recently schooled Khalil Rountree at range and only lost to power punchers like Vitor Petrino after conceding bad positions to avoid nukes—something Crute cannot replicate because he lacks striking power and footwork to earn respect. Guru acknowledged Crute could land a takedown, but doubts the Aussie can maintain control without absorbing serious damage first. The pick is Prachnio by decision or late KO, with low-kick props live.