Makinen leaned to the Giants +6 on Sunday night. Winless teams catching +3.5 or more in Week 3 cover 66 %. New York is 8-1 ATS against Kansas City since 1992, and Russell Wilson sports a 13-4 ATS mark as a home underdog. Veteran QBs in a new home uniform are 107-87-11 ATS (55 %). DK splits show heavy public support for Kansas City across all metrics, a scenario that has underperformed. The Giants’ offense ranks sixth in total yards after last week’s 506-yard outburst, outperforming the Chiefs through two games. Makinen warns against blindly laying road chalk with KC in this spot.

Taking +6.5, Janvrin argued the matchup tilts quietly toward New York. The Chiefs’ backfield has accounted for only 96 rushing yards on 29 carries (3.3 YPC) with a ‑2.3 EPA on designed runs, negating the Giants’ run-defense weakness (177.5 YPG allowed). New York deploys Cover-1/2/3 on 82% of dropbacks; Patrick Mahomes is completing just 55.6% for 7.5 YPA against that trio and a mere 50% versus Cover-3 in particular. If Wink Martindale can keep those numbers flat while the run game sputters, Janvrin believes the Giants not only cover but flirt with an upset.

Everett called Chiefs ‑6.5 the classic ‘get-right’ spot after heartbreaking losses to the Chargers and Eagles. He’s confident Patrick Mahomes will not start 0-3, especially if rookie burner Xavier Worthy returns to stretch a shaky Giants secondary. Although New York’s pass rush and home crowd could keep things tense, Everett still trusts Mahomes and Andy Reid to win by at least a touchdown.

Bender is laying the 5.5 with Kansas City but warned that the nonexistent ground game—Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco have only 47 rushing yards apiece—makes a late Giants cover possible. Still, he trusts Patrick Mahomes to exploit a New York secondary that just allowed 506 yards to Dallas, while Russell Wilson’s 450-yard Week-2 eruption feels less repeatable. Projected final: 31-24 Chiefs, a narrow ATS hit.