Kunath labeled Jordan “Monkey King” Leavitt a safe pick to wrestle-ride Kurt Holobaugh to a decision. Since re-entering the UFC, Holobaugh has surrendered takedowns to Austin Hubbard, Trey Ogden (12 minutes of control), regional replacement Kanaan Khashukhi, and Alexander Hernandez. Leavitt may be limited on the feet but excels at chain double-legs into half-guard control and has logged 17 top-control minutes in his last two wins. Kunath doubts Holobaugh’s guard attacks will bother Leavitt, noting Chase Hooper, a far more aggressive grappler, needed slick transitions to sub him. Because Leavitt owns minimal ground-and-pound power, Kunath projects 30-27 scorecards rather than a finish. Bet recommendations: Leavitt money-line; Leavitt by decision prop.

Dan Tom labelled this matchup a classic dog-or-pass and is leaning toward Kurt Holobaugh at the current +160, noting he will fire if the line drifts to +180 or higher. Tom’s logic: Holobaugh survived and beat Alexander Hernandez in a higher-paced scramble fight, carries real pocket power, and has the cardio to push a frantic third round— a profile that punishes Leavitt’s historically low striking volume. While acknowledging Leavitt’s slick grappling, Tom pointed out that Leavitt’s top control often stalls rather than finishes; if Holobaugh can stand even twice per round the optics favour the underdog. The small cage works both ways: it shortens Holobaugh’s path to land big shots and forces Leavitt to wrestle more, potentially gassing his arms. From a betting sheet standpoint Tom will either take Holobaugh straight or mix the money-line into two-fighter round-robins if the price balloons, but he will not lay chalk on Leavitt at numbers approaching –200.

Madlab Michael Lurato backed Jordan Leavitt at –190 and prefers the Decision prop that is still floating in the +130 to +150 range. Lurato said Holobaugh’s "one fatal leak is takedown defence— you can lock a body-lock and put him on his back without even shooting." Leavitt averages 2.6 takedowns per 15 minutes and, according to Madlab, possesses an underrated positional IQ: he re-centres his hips, dead-weights inside half-guard and generally strands opponents on the canvas for the rest of the round. In the UFC Apex’s smaller cage those entries get even easier because Holobaugh cannot circle out to space. Madlab admitted Leavitt’s boxing is "horrible," but argued Holobaugh’s early striking success will vanish the moment Leavitt claspes hands. Because Leavitt rarely chases low-percentage subs, Lurato expects top-control to pile up and projects a 30-27 or 29-28 scorecard. Actionable angle: play Leavitt straight or take the safer plus-money decision prop rather than hunting a submission.

Gumby Vreeland took the +163 underdog shot on Kurt Holobaugh, arguing the matchup hinges on wrestling rather than jiu-jitsu. He expects Holobaugh—who he felt deserved the nod over Alexander Hernandez last summer—to decide where the fight takes place thanks to superior takedown entries and stout hips. On the feet, Vreeland sees a pronounced pace edge; Holobaugh walks opponents down and throws 4.8 significant strikes per minute compared to Leavitt’s 2.6. Should it hit the mat, Holobaugh’s top-game ground-and-pound would rack up damage while limiting Leavitt’s arm-bar and sweep attempts. Vreeland added that Leavitt’s year-long layoff and recent submission loss to Chase Hooper raise questions about his durability in extended grappling exchanges. With that blend of wrestling control and cardio, Vreeland projects Holobaugh by decision at attractive plus-money.

Jeff Fox sided with Jordan "The Monkey King" Leavitt at –188 over veteran Kurt Holobaugh. Fox acknowledged Leavitt’s year-long layoff but emphasized structural advantages: Leavitt is nine years younger, owns a 6-of-11 submission rate, and carries a +0.71 strike differential despite routinely hunting grappling exchanges. Holobaugh, now 37, is just 2-5 in three separate UFC stints, has absorbed over 4.5 strikes per minute, and has been knocked down or submitted in each of his last four Octagon appearances. Fox believes Leavitt’s slick arm-bar and back-take game will punish any extended ground exchange, and he questioned whether Holobaugh—who has logged nearly 40 pro fights—still possesses the athleticism to sprawl and brawl for three rounds. Layoff risk aside, Fox labeled Leavitt the superior scrambler and picked him to control top time or find a submission.

MMA Guru chose Kurt Holobaugh to finish Jordan Leavitt in Round 1 or 2. He argues the UFC’s damage-based scoring favors Holobaugh’s heavy hands and timing, while Leavitt relies on low-impact control. Holobaugh knocked out Austin Hubbard (whom Medeiros merely edged) and was piecing up Jason Knight and Alexander Hernandez in striking exchanges. Guru trusts Holobaugh’s takedown defense and scrambling, saying Leavitt won’t secure early dominant positions. Inside the small cage, once Leavitt’s shots fail, Holobaugh should stuff him against the fence and unload power combinations for a TKO.

Guru’s second PrizePicks prop is UNDER 14.75 minutes for Leavitt-Holobaugh. He doesn’t expect this pairing to last three full rounds because Leavitt’s submission-heavy approach or Holobaugh’s power striking should end things. Leavitt has finished seven of his eleven wins and looked vulnerable when forced to stand, while Holobaugh owns 10 career knockouts and presses a damaging pace inside the Apex’s small cage. Guru predicts either Leavitt sinks an early choke or Holobaugh melts him with volume—either way, the clock stops before the final 30 seconds of Round 3.