Matty Betss took Tainara Lisboa by decision at +260, noting she is the cleaner striker and expects a 29-28 scorecard in a tightly lined women’s MMA matchup. He believes the bout will largely play out on the feet if Lisboa can keep her back off the mat, and the plus-money price compensates for the risk of a couple of opponent takedowns. Betss framed it as a value stab on a fighter he grades slightly better in the stand-up and expects all three rounds to be competitive.

Matty Betss is taking a Dog-or-Pass stance on Tainara Lisboa against Luana Santos, citing multiple technical and contextual edges. Betss argued Lisboa owns the more disciplined muay-thai background, throws straighter combinations, and has already shown finishing ability by submitting Jessica-Rose Clark. Conversely, Santos still fights in wild bursts, gassed badly against Stephanie Egger, and needed a weight-cut yo-yo—down to 125 two fights ago, back to 135 here—after previously missing bantamweight. Betss expects Santos’ judo entries to stall if she tires, allowing the physically strong Lisboa to bully her against the fence, pile up volume, or even hunt her own takedowns. With books hanging plus money on Lisboa despite what he sees as the more finished product, Betss recommends grabbing the underdog early and monitoring weigh-ins for further confirmation.

Despite limited tape, Guru leaned Luana Santos by 29-28 decision over Tainara Lisboa. He cited Santos’ youth (25), activity advantage, and competitive showing against Casey O’Neill at a higher weight class. Guru expects the fight to be largely on the feet with both women landing but Santos sneaking two rounds. Because confidence is low, he suggested only small action on the decision prop.

Guru added Tainara Lisboa over 30.5 significant strikes to his card. He projects a competitive three-rounder where Santos’ durability forces extended exchanges. Lisboa landed 85-34 on strikes in her debut and should comfortably cross 30 if this goes to the cards, even in a losing effort.

Dan Tom said the safest way to back Luana Santos is still the money-line, but he is tempted to add a tiny round-robin flier on Santos by submission at juicy plus money. Tom expects a grindy fence fight in the 25-foot Apex cage where Santos’ black-belt judo trips force Lisboa to her back. Tape on Lisboa shows a stark split: competent top control but almost no get-up game—Tom called the difference “purple belt on top, white belt on bottom.” If Santos can land even one throw and settle into half-guard, Tom believes her pressure passing makes an arm-triangle or head-and-arm choke live despite Santos’ usual decision-heavy style. He is waiting to confirm Lisboa’s knee looks healthy after reconstruction, but sees the sub prop as a creative way to turn a –175 favorite into a 4- or 5-to-1 payout while still fading Lisboa’s biggest weakness.

Dan Tom sided with Luana Santos at roughly –175, calling her the rightful favorite over Tainara Lisboa. Tom highlighted several factors: Santos is a black-belt judoka who thrives in clinch positions, and the UFC Apex’ 25-foot cage should force clinches early and often. Lisboa is returning from extensive left-knee reconstruction that included cartilage grafts, and most of her taped wins came against non-UFC competition; her last bout saw her botch a head-and-arm throw and give up top position in round three against Raven Oliver. Tom expects the smaller cage plus Santos’ judo trips to neutralize Lisboa’s size advantage and kickboxing accolades, especially because Santos has already competed at bantamweight and looked in better shape during a recent LFA appearance that Tom covered in person. With the younger athlete by nearly eight years, a more diverse skill set on the mat, and Lisboa’s uncertain durability after surgery, Tom believes Santos wins via clinch-heavy decision or late ground-and-pound, recommending the money-line down to –190.

Sniper agreed Lisboa is the side to back thanks to her superior grappling and built-in size advantage, yet warned against going overweight. He does not see a finish—market odds agree—so Lisboa’s ceiling likely tops out around 85-90 DK points. With several more explosive dogs on the slate (Camilo, Park, Santos), Sniper plans to roster Lisboa at field weight only, using her chiefly as salary relief rather than a core play.

Monk said Tainara Lisboa belongs in every DFS player-pool because she owns the clear size and wrestling edge after Santos moved up from flyweight. Santos’ only previous bantamweight appearance came against Stephanie Egger, and her other three pro bouts were all at 125. Monk pointed out that Santos’ significant-strike rate plummets 55 % by Round 3 while her takedown attempts dry up entirely, whereas Lisboa averages multiple takedowns and control spells in each win. Monk expects constant clinch pressure and top time from the naturally stronger 135-er, noting DraftKings dog pricing ($7.8K) plus a flipped betting line now sitting at +140. Even if the fight reaches the judges—and the “goes to decision” prop is –250—Lisboa can still rack up enough grappling points to smash value in cash and GPP formats.

Kunath doubled down on his earlier dog call but got more specific this time, saying Tainara Lisboa is live to win a control-heavy decision. He noted Luana Santos is coming off the longest layoff of her young career—nine months—after looking under-prepared in the quick-turn fight she lost to Casey ONeill. Santos has always stayed hyper-active (never more than six months between bouts), so Kunath worries about ring rust and confidence. By contrast, the 32-year-old Lisboa has dealt with long stretches of inactivity before and even went three kickboxing rounds with Valentina Shevchenko a decade ago, giving her a massive edge in high-level experience. Kunath expects Santos to sit down on power shots early, which will let Lisboa change levels for takedowns and rack up top control. Because Santos’ prior success came against limited opponents like Juliana Miller and Maria Agapova, he sees her struggling to impose the same game on a far more seasoned technician. Play the plus-money moneyline or go bolder with Lisboa by decision for extra value.

Kunath flagged Tainara Lisboa as one of the card’s few true value dogs. The 32-year-old has been fighting professionally since Luana Santos was in grade school, even going three hard kickboxing rounds with Valentina Shevchenko back in 2014. That depth of striking experience should matter because Santos’ lone UFC appearance saw her out-jabbed and repeatedly backed up by Casey O’Neill despite being a betting favorite. Kunath noted Lisbon’s Muay Thai base—she lands 54 % of her significant strikes—and solid defensive grappling (83 % takedown defense) are tailor-made to frustrate the still-raw Santos, who is 5-1 overall with just two fights that left the first round. With Lisbon’s cardio edge and a broader striking arsenal of knees and elbows in the clinch, Kunath recommends taking the plus-money moneyline and sprinkling decision if you want a bigger payout.

Jeff Fox called Luana Santos a mis-priced favorite at –143 against Tainara Lisboa. Fox highlighted Santos’ nine-year youth advantage, 2× higher striking pace and 4-of-8 UFC wins by submission, arguing her wrestling and top-control give her multiple paths to win. He brushed aside Lisboa’s 2-0 start, noting those victories came over Jessica-Rose Clark (now boxing) and Ravenna Oliveira, both of whom landed takedowns. Because Lisboa has been dragged to the mat by lesser strikers, Fox expects Santos to either out-box her at range or change levels for dominant grappling sequences. He recommended jumping on the short line now and sprinkling Santos by submission at plus money.