B Wade is fading Tyrone Taylor under 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs. Taylor owns a brutal .161 average against left-handed pitching this year and has stayed below 1.5 H/R/R in 73 % of all games. Versus left-handed starters specifically, he has gone over the prop in only 3 of 21 contests, none since mid-May. With Noah Cameron sporting a sub-1.00 WHIP and sub-3.00 ERA from the left side, Wade projects limited on-base chances for Taylor and calls the under one of his favorite plays on Sunday’s board.

B Wade said Noah Cameron is a strong under play at 2.5 earned runs. Cameron did not allow more than one earned run in any of his first five starts and has cleared 2.5 only twice all season, both times against top-five line-ups (Dodgers and Yankees). His WHIP sits below 1.00 and his ERA is under 3.00. The Mets strike fear against right-handers but are far less potent versus lefties: Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor both lose over 100 points of OPS against southpaws, and New York’s road wRC+ drops 14 points compared to at Citi Field. With Kansas City at home and Cameron’s splits lining up, Wade feels confident paying ‑250 juice on the earned-runs under.

Within the same handicap, Kenny G labeled Kansas City +110 a "significant lean" and possible Dog of the Day. The play is a straight fade of Frankie Montas, who has allowed eight earned and three homers across his last 9.2 innings and shows a 6.14 ERA through only four post-injury starts. Kansas City counters with Michael Lorenzen, fresh off seven scoreless frames with seven strikeouts against Arizona; at home this season Lorenzen owns a 3.62 ERA. Kenny trusts the Royals’ dominant bullpen to shorten the game and believes their light-hitting lineup can still scratch out runs against Montas and a Mets relief corps trending the wrong way (ERA up to 3.86). With Kansas City having won four of five before last night’s loss, he makes their implied 47% win probability look cheap and is happy to grab the plus money.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Kansas City on the moneyline. Mets starter Frankie Montas is easing back from the IL and has been roughed up for 10 runs on 15 hits in 14.2 innings. Conversely, Michael Lorenzen has allowed only three runs over his last 11.2 frames and owns a 3.79 ERA across 35.2 home innings while holding opponents to a .259 average. With the Royals winning seven of their past ten and the more trustworthy starter on the hill, the tout prefers KC at home.

Just A Bet Outside took Michael Wacha under 17.5 outs recorded (essentially under six full innings) at -120 for a half-unit. Wacha has stayed below this number in 10 of 18 starts and is clearly fading: 12 earned runs, 21 hits and seven walks over his last 15 innings. He has allowed eight or more hits in three of his past five outings, pushing his WHIP skyward. The spot worsens against the Mets, who lead MLB in pitches seen per plate appearance and forced eight of the previous 10 right-handed starters to fall short of 18 outs (ignoring an odd double-header blip). Kansas City’s bullpen is fully rested after yesterday’s day off and with the All-Star break looming, the tout does not expect the 34-year-old Wacha to get any leash once he runs into traffic.

Eric Pathi recommended betting the Kansas City Royals moneyline at roughly +120 against the Mets on July 11. Pathi leaned on his long-running "underdog on a winning streak, off rest, back home" system, noting that Kansas City enters the series having won four straight and did not play Thursday. He highlighted that the spot historically produces strong ROI because public money gravitates toward the supposedly better favorite while the rested home dog continues positive momentum. Michael Wacha draws the start for the Royals opposite Kodai Senga for New York, giving Kansas City a viable pitching matchup to keep the streak alive. Pathi framed the Royals as the best complimentary play for Friday’s slate within his Dime Club card.