Eric Pathi said the only side worth betting Wednesday is the St. Louis Cardinals around +170 against the Dodgers. Pathi pointed out that Los Angeles is 58-38 when listed as a favorite yet a flat-unit bettor is down roughly 10 units because of the heavy juice attached to every win. Overall—counting the Dodgers’ 7-8 record as a dog—you would be down money in every 2025 LA game despite the club sitting 20 games over .500. By contrast, St. Louis is 26-29 as an underdog but still "printing money" thanks to plus prices. Pathi views the matchup as another classic value scenario: avoid laying –208 on a team that historically costs bettors cash and grab the Cardinals, who have been a positive-EV play whenever oddsmakers hang dog odds. He framed it as the same underdog-heavy approach that has his service up 27-23 and +14.9 units since the All-Star break.

Eric Lindquist flagged Dustin May’s strikeout prop as an early Wednesday target. May’s Stuff+ grades remain elite and Lindquist thinks a change of scenery has smoothed out mechanical issues the Dodgers never solved. Books usually shade a pitcher’s first start with a new club, so Lindquist is hoping to see 4.5 Ks at plus money and will immediately ladder the over to 6+ and 7+ strikeouts. Boston’s projected lineup still owns a 24% strike-out rate against power sinkers, and Lindquist expects an 85–90 pitch workload that should translate to 6–7 punch-outs if May’s velo holds at the 97 mph he showed in his rehab tune-up.

Kenny G said he is only willing to "lean slightly" toward backing the Dodgers at -190 because the price is expensive but still prefers them over the Cardinals. His reasoning: St. Louis’ offense has cratered to 13th in runs scored and 15th in batting average after spending large stretches of the season in the top-5, while the club is just 24-33 on the road. Los Angeles counters with a 35-21 home record and a three-game division lead, even though its own bats have cooled (one, three, zero, five and two runs in the last five). Kenny also flagged that Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas has been throwing well enough to make a pure fade less attractive, and noted the Dodgers’ bullpen issues but expects improvement after the deadline. Net result: Dodgers moneyline lean, but not strong enough for his premium picks column given the near 2-to-1 juice.

Cash Out Sports Picks took the Dodgers moneyline, highlighting Sonny Gray’s diminished stuff on the road and St. Louis’ chronic failure to back starters away from Busch. Los Angeles, playing with greater cohesion and depth, rarely wastes home opportunities and the tout believes they take care of business in the series opener despite what he calls Glass-level odds inflation.

Lindquist prefers Michael Conforto to record a double versus Miles Mikolas and the Cardinals bullpen instead of chasing a home-run ticket. Bat-speed data and a flatter launch-angle profile point to gap shots, and Mikolas’s sinker/slider mix has surrendered a .348 xwOBA to left-handers. St. Louis middle relievers haven’t helped, coughing up a .462 slugging mark to LHBs. At +400 or better the implied break-even sits below Lindquist’s 24 % projection, giving bettors a clear edge in the doubles market.

Lindquist opted for a Michael Conforto double prop instead of a home-run ticket, citing both price and matchup. Miles Michaelis owns a below-average 17% K-rate and sinker that has surrendered a .485 SLG to left-handed hitters. Conforto’s 25-degree average launch angle and 92 mph EV against sinkers translate to a higher probability of gap power than over-the-fence power in Lindquist’s model. The St. Louis bullpen has the sixth-worst xSLG allowed since July, adding extra paths to cash. He played the double at +340 and would go as low as +300.

Just A Bet Outside played the Cardinals’ team total under 5.5 with Tyler Glasnow on the bump. Aside from one walk-filled hiccup, Glasnow has allowed only nine hits and two earned over 18 innings (23 K) since coming off the IL. St. Louis has scored five or fewer in 7 of its last 10 overall and sits under this number in 9 of its last 10 road games versus right-handed starters, averaging 2.6 runs in that span. Expecting a 6–7 inning bounce-back from a motivated Glasnow, the tout sees little chance the Cards crack six runs.

Just A Bet Outside warned that Tyler Glasnow’s strikeout line may be inflated Monday. St. Louis owns the sixth-lowest strikeout rate against righties over the last three weeks, making them a tough opponent for strikeout overs. While Glasnow’s season-long K-rate is elite, the host pointed out that match-up context matters and purposely excluded him from the ‘good K matchups’ list, implying an under or stay-away on Glasnow’s strikeout prop.

Just A Bet Outside said Sonny Gray is the only arm on Monday’s slate with a truly plus strikeout profile. The Dodgers own the third-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last three weeks (27.9%), and Gray’s skills align well: 133 strikeouts in 121.1 IP, a 27.5% K-rate on the road, and a 28.0% K-rate versus left-handed hitters. Even during his recent rough patch (three shaky outings), he still logged 15 punch-outs in just 13.1 innings. The host flagged this as the lone matchup worth considering for an over on K props or as a ceiling play in DFS pitching pools.