The Dimers engine assigns a 51% probability to the game staying Under 8.5 (‑110). Slade credited cooler April temperatures (forecast 55°F with 10 mph in from center), two starters with above‑average ground‑ball rates, and both offenses ranking bottom‑third in hard‑hit rate against right‑handed pitching over the last two weeks. Factoring in bullpen freshness—Cleveland’s high‑leverage trio all on two days’ rest—the model leans to the Under, albeit with only a modest edge.

Slade highlighted Cleveland +1.5 at ‑166 as the model’s preferred derivative, projecting a 62% chance the Guardians stay within a run. The simulation leans on Cleveland’s 9‑4 record in one‑run games, a Yankee bullpen that has logged 10.2 high‑leverage innings over the past three days, and Progressive Field’s run‑suppressing profile (bottom‑10 in HR factor). With neither starter working deep—Schmidt averages 4.8 IP, Williams 5.1—the model expects a tight, bullpen‑heavy contest that favors taking the extra run and a half.

Nick Slade said Dimers’ MLB model ran 10,000 fresh simulations of Monday’s matchup at Progressive Field and spit out a 51% win probability for the Yankees. Current market price is ‑120 (implied 54.5%), so the model still lists the Bronx Bombers as the most likely winner despite the juice. Slade noted the projection bakes in Gavin Williams’ 4.58 ERA, Clarke Schmidt’s 26% strikeout rate and park‑adjusted run environments, then layers in weather and bullpen rest as part of “thousands of additional inputs.” While the edge is thin, the model flags Yankees ML as its top straight‑up play for this game.

Nick Slade said Dimers’ machine‑learning model ran 10,000 simulations of Padres–Tigers and landed on Detroit as the straight‑up winner 53% of the time. Despite rookie Keider Montero’s ugly 0‑1 record and 9.00 ERA squaring off against Randy Vasquez’s 1.74 ERA, the Tigers still grade out as the more likely side because the model folds in park factors at Comerica, full‑season offensive metrics, bullpen freshness and defensive efficiency ratings. With books dealing Detroit around ‑130, the model shows a sliver of value on the Tigers moneyline relative to the implied 56.5% break‑even probability.

Slade highlighted that the model’s largest discrepancy in Monday’s game is on San Diego +1.5 runs. The simulations show the Padres covering the run line 64% of the time, well above the ‑188 price that implies only 65% and comfortably beating the model’s internal 59% breakeven. The projection factors in Vasquez’s 27% strikeout rate, Detroit’s bottom‑five wRC+ versus right‑handed pitching, and the Tigers’ bullpen carrying the 24th‑ranked xFIP over the last two weeks. Because Detroit is favored but projected to win a close one, the +1.5 cushion on San Diego grades out as Dimers’ top betting edge for the matchup.

Nick Slade said Dimers’ machine‑learning engine ran 10,000 simulations of Saturday’s Dodgers‑Rangers matchup and landed on Texas 51% of the time, creating a small edge against the market‑wide ‑110 moneyline. The model also preferred Rangers +1.5 runs (priced ‑178) with a 64% cover probability and projected the 8‑run total to go over 55% of the time. Slade noted the pitching matchup—Nathan Eovaldi (1‑2, 2.55 ERA) versus rookie Roki Sasaki (0‑1, 3.29 ERA)—and recent data inputs as key factors baked into the simulations. Bettors looking for plus‑EV spots are encouraged to take the Rangers straight up or on the run line, with a lean toward the over.

Slade noted the same 10,000‑run simulation spits out a 52% probability that Reds‑Orioles finishes below the 9‑run total. The projection leans on Hunter Greene’s sizzling 0.98 ERA through three starts and Baltimore rookie Brandon Young’s clean early stat line, plus a neutral weather forecast that isn’t expected to boost offense at Camden Yards. While only a slight edge, the model still prefers the under at current ‑105 odds.

Nick Slade said the Dimers MLB simulation model found its biggest advantage on Orioles +1.5 Saturday. After running 10,000 game simulations that factor in current lineups, park conditions at Camden Yards, and the Hunter Greene‑Brandon Young pitching matchup, the model gives Baltimore a 62% chance to cover the run line versus market odds of ‑156. That 11‑point edge makes the plus‑run‑and‑a‑half the top betting angle despite the Reds owning a narrow 51% win probability straight‑up.