David Fernandez noted that James Conner's season-ending foot surgery thrusts Trey Benson into the featured role for Thursday's game. Benson has already posted 125 rushing yards on 21 carries this season and is expected to 'carry a heavy load' with only a light rotation behind him. The matchup, however, is far from ideal: Seattle's defense has been 'particularly stingy' through three games and is adept at bottling up the run, forcing opponents to rely on short passes and creative looks. Fernandez cautioned fantasy managers that while Benson's projected volume keeps him in play, they should temper efficiency expectations in both season-long lineups and DFS contests given the difficult matchup.

Dimers.com's team of analysts said their NFL predictive model, after running 10,000 simulations of Thursday night's Seattle Seahawks–Arizona Cardinals matchup, gives the Cardinals a 58% win probability versus 42% for the Seahawks. With Arizona sitting at -108 on the moneyline, the model shows positive expected value and labeled the moneyline 'the strongest play on the board.' Dimers projected a 23-21 final score, noting that such a razor-thin margin makes the Cardinals -1 spread far less attractive. James Conner's season-ending foot injury was baked into every simulation, yet the model still leans toward Arizona at home, making this a data-driven green light for bettors looking to back the Cardinals straight up.

Leaver’s 10,000-run simulation makes the Colts a 63% straight-up favorite in Nashville. He framed Tennessee’s 37% upset chance as too thin to chase plus money and recommended leaning on Indy in survivor pools.

For the 8:05 PM ET clash at Wrigley, Garofolo advised backing the Rockies +1.5 at +120. Despite the model showing only a 49.4% hit rate, the +120 price yields a 3.9% expected edge, enough for inclusion on his best-bets list. He stressed that in low-total, coin-flip spots, an underdog run line at plus odds can be profitable when the projection’s edge clears the 3% threshold.

Garofolo highlighted Angels +1.5 at +104 in their 9:38 PM ET matchup with the Yankees, noting the Dimers model assigns the run-line dog a 52.8% win probability and a 3.8% edge. He framed the plus money price, coupled with a projection that the Halos keep it within a run more than half the time, as one of Tuesday’s strongest value plays on the card.

Dave Garofolo recommended betting the Under 8.5 at ‑118 in Tuesday’s Twins–Rays game after Dimers’ predictive model spit out a 56.3% hit rate and a 2.2% expected edge across thousands of simulations. With first pitch at 7:05 PM ET, Garofolo said the projection’s combination of a better-than-coin-flip probability and a modest house edge made the total a plus-EV play for bettors looking to grind profit on a busy slate.

For Cubs-Reds, Douglass relayed that Dimers’ projections give the Under 9 at -110 a 55.3% chance of cashing and a 2.9% edge— the highest edge of Sunday’s free picks. Bettors seeking total action can lean Under thanks to the model’s confidence exceeding the break-even mark.

Douglass pointed bettors toward Pirates +1.5 (-144) after the simulator produced a 61% hit rate and a 2.0% expected edge. Although the edge is smaller than the Astros play, it still clears the model’s profitability threshold, making Pittsburgh a viable run-line target against Milwaukee in Sunday’s matinee.

Mac Douglass highlighted that Dimers’ predictive engine ran thousands of simulations on Mariners-Astros and spit out a 62% likelihood that Houston covers the +1.5 run line at -146 on FanDuel. The model assigns a 2.7% long-term edge to the wager, making it the highest-probability play on Sunday’s slate. Douglass noted that Dimers Pro users typically hunt for any edge above 2%, so this qualifies as actionable value.

Jason Bevilacqua said his Dimers predictive model makes Under 12 runs the smartest wager for Friday’s Yankees–Rockies clash at Coors Field. After thousands of simulations, the model assigns the under a 57.3% win probability and a 6.8% long-term edge at the current -102 price at DraftKings. Even with the park’s notorious thin air, the data projects scoring to fall short of 12, creating what Bevilacqua labeled a +EV total to target.

Garofolo reported that Dimers’ engine gives the Phillies-Rockies Under 11 runs a 53.6% hit rate versus the 51.2% break-even implied by the -105 number at BetMGM, producing a 2.4% edge. The model’s simulations suggest the market is slightly overestimating the Coors Field run environment for the Thursday afternoon game.

Garofolo highlighted a second playable angle in Mariners-Astros: Houston to win outright at +118 on BetMGM. Dimers’ simulations give the Astros a 47.9% chance to cash, 2.0 points higher than the 45.9% implied probability of the price, resulting in a 2.2% long-term edge according to the model.

Dave Garofolo said Dimers’ predictive analytics model ran thousands of simulations for Thursday’s Mariners-Astros matchup and spit out a 61% success rate for Houston +1.5 runs at -142 on DraftKings. With the implied probability on that price sitting around 58.7%, the model shows a 2.3% positive edge, making the run-line the highest-graded wager on the slate.

Bevilacqua advised backing the Twins straight up at -116 after Dimers’ model produced a 57.4% win probability and a 3.7% betting edge. The simulations favor Minnesota’s pitching matchup and home-field edge in the 1:10 PM ET tilt, making the moneyline a plus-EV wager according to the site’s projections.

Bevilacqua relayed that the Dimers model recommends White Sox +1.5 at -128 against Seattle. Simulations give Chicago a 58.2% chance to cover, producing a 2.0% edge versus the posted price. The projection leans on the Mariners’ league-average run differential and the Sox bullpen’s recent improvement, making the extra run and a half valuable in a mid-afternoon matchup.

Jason Bevilacqua said Dimers’ predictive analytics model flagged Pirates +1.5 at -154 as Wednesday’s highest-probability play. After thousands of simulations, the run-line hit rate clocks in at 63% with a 2.4% estimated edge over FanDuel’s implied odds. The early 12:35 PM ET start and Pittsburgh’s recent trend of keeping games within a run against Cincinnati factored into the projection. Bevilacqua emphasized that the pick grades out as profitable long-term rather than just likely to win.

For Astros-Rays, Garofolo’s write-up cites Dimers’ simulations hitting the Under 9.5 runs 54.8% of the time, a 3.6% advantage over the ‑105 price that needs 51.2% to break even. Model factors include Cristian Javier’s 29% strikeout rate, a Rays lineup missing two regulars, and Tropicana Field suppressing home runs by 7% relative to league average. With both clubs ranking top-10 in bullpen ERA, the projections anticipate a pitching-driven game that stays under the posted total.

Dave Garofolo said Dimers’ predictive analytics model generated a 58.7% win probability for Miami covering +1.5 at -130 in the Cubs-Marlins matchup. The implied break-even is only 56.5%, giving bettors a 2.2% calculated edge. The recommendation is strictly numbers-driven—thousands of simulations showed the Marlins keep it within a run more often than the market expects, so he labeled the +1.5 run line a value play for Tuesday night.

Garofolo highlighted that Dimers’ model gives Texas a 58.4% chance to cover the +1.5 run line against New York, while -118 odds imply just 54.1%. That 4.3% edge made it the second-strongest value on the board. The projection stems from simulation outputs favoring the Rangers’ bullpen depth and the Yankees’ league-average run production against lefties, leading to frequent one-run outcomes.

Douglass highlighted Guardians-Reds Under 9 runs at -108 as another profitable total, citing a 54.2% success probability and 2.3% edge from Dimers’ model. Cleveland’s offense sits 24th in hard-hit rate, while Cincinnati faces a rested Tanner Bibee whose xERA is a full run lower than his surface ERA thanks to a .347 BABIP fluke. Hunter Greene counters with a 31% whiff rate and has held right-handed hitters to a .279 slugging mark. Progressive Field temperatures in the low 60s with a 7-mph breeze blowing in further dampen run expectancy. Simulations cluster around 7–8 combined runs, making the under playable down to 8.5.

Douglass advised betting Under 8.5 runs at +100 in Rays-Marlins after the Dimers simulator produced a 52.7% hit rate and a 2.7% expected edge. The projection leans on Zach Eflin’s 29% strikeout rate and Edward Cabrera’s 56% ground-ball rate, plus Miami’s league-worst 85 wRC+ versus righties. LoanDepot Park suppresses homers by roughly 11% compared to league average, and both clubs’ bullpens enter with sub-3.50 ERAs over the last two weeks. With the roof expected closed and neutral winds, the model foresees a pitching-driven contest that lands in the 6–7 run range more than half the time.

Mac Douglass endorsed taking the Blue Jays at +1.5 runs (-190) against Detroit after Dimers’ predictive model spit out a 68.4% win probability and a 2.9% long-term edge over the listed price. The pick is built on thousands of Monte Carlo simulations that factor in projected starting-pitcher matchups, bullpen usage, park factors at Rogers Centre, and each lineup’s weighted on-base averages versus right-handed pitching. Because the Tigers’ offense ranks bottom-five in runs per game on the road and Toronto’s pen owns the fifth-best ERA in May, the model expects a tight, low-scoring game where the extra run and a half becomes highly valuable. Douglass labeled it the highest-probability play on Sunday’s slate and a cornerstone wager for bettors seeking safe bankroll growth.

Dave Garofolo said the Dimers predictive analytics model made White Sox +1.5 at -102 its lone free best bet for Thursday. After thousands of simulations, the model assigns the Chicago run line a 53.1% probability of cashing, 2.6% higher than the implied odds (50.5%), creating a quantified edge worth exploiting. Garofolo noted the pick targets the 12:40 PM ET getaway-day matchup in Cincinnati and stressed that securing the extra run protects against a close road loss. All other high-edge bets from the model were held for Dimers Pro subscribers, underscoring this play as the top publicly available value on the slate.

For Brewers–Rays, Garofolo recommended the Under 9.5 at ‑112. Dimers’ simulations project a 57.7% probability of nine runs or fewer, producing a 4.9% expected-value cushion against the listed odds. The pick, scheduled for a 4:10 PM ET first pitch, rounds out Saturday’s trio of totals that cleared the model’s +EV filter after thousands of run-throughs of its proprietary MLB game script algorithm.

Garofolo advised taking Under 9 runs at ‑108 for Braves–Pirates, quoting Dimers’ machine-learning projections that give the Under a 56.1% hit rate. That converts to a 4.2% edge over the sportsbook number, enough to clear the site’s publishing threshold for positive expected value. First pitch is 4:05 PM ET, and the edge figure comes directly from the model’s latest data refresh on Saturday morning.

Dave Garofolo said the Dimers predictive analytics engine likes Under 10 runs at ‑110 in Saturday's Yankees–Athletics matchup. After thousands of Monte Carlo simulations, the model spits out a 57.9% chance the game stays below double-digits, creating a 5.5% expected-value edge versus the implied 52.4% probability at the current price. Garofolo noted the play time-locks at 4:05 PM ET and emphasized that all three of Saturday’s recommended totals cleared the model’s +EV threshold before being published.

For Brewers–Rays, Bevilacqua relayed that the Dimers model prefers Under 9 at +100. Simulations generate a 53.8% likelihood the game stays below nine runs, translating to fair odds of roughly -117 and producing a 3.8% positive expected value. The Under becomes attractive at even money, with the projection accounting for park factors, each club’s recent run-production distribution, and starting-pitcher baselines baked into the algorithm.

Bevilacqua highlighted Texas on the moneyline at +225, explaining the Dimers projections give the Rangers a 34.2% win probability. That figure creates a 3.4% edge versus the 30.8% implied odds, turning the heavy underdog into a +EV play. The recommendation stems from the same simulation set that underpins the run-line play, showing enough upset potential to warrant a sprinkle on the outright despite Detroit being favored.

Jason Bevilacqua said the Dimers predictive-analytics engine fired on Rangers +1.5 at +105, flagging a 5.0% expected value edge after thousands of Monte Carlo simulations. The model gives Texas a 53.8% chance to cover the run line – meaning the implied price should be closer to -116, not +105. Bevilacqua noted the pick is machine-learning driven and updated the morning of the game, giving bettors a playable cushion in a matchup where Detroit is still favored straight-up but projects to win by one run or less often enough to make the +1.5 profitable.

Garofolo’s Saturday card rounds out with Under 8.5 runs at -122 in the same Rockies–Giants clash. The Dimers engine assigns a 58.2% probability to the under, 3.3% higher than the 55% break-even rate. Simulations expect heavy marine layer conditions at first pitch and project both offenses for sub-300 wOBA marks against left-handed pitching. Factor in Oracle Park’s league-second-lowest HR Park Factor (0.71) and two bullpens ranking top-10 in hard-hit suppression over the last month, and the model leans toward a low-scoring afternoon.

Garofolo’s model also recommends a smaller stake on the Rockies moneyline at +240. The simulations give Colorado a 32.9% win probability; the betting market implies only 29.4%, yielding a 3.5% positive expected value. The edge stems from the model projecting Giants starter Tristan Beck for just 4.1 innings after a recent velocity dip, forcing an over-taxed bullpen to carry the load. With Rockies rookie southpaw Carson Palmquist owning a 29% strikeout rate at AAA and a favorable ground-ball profile for spacious Oracle Park, the algorithm finds enough upset equity to justify a plus-odds stab.

Dave Garofolo said the Dimers predictive analytics model fired on Rockies +1.5 at +114. After thousands of simulations the algorithm gives Colorado a 51.7% chance to cover, versus an implied 46.7% probability at the posted odds—creating a 4.9% expected value edge. The play is strictly numbers-driven: the model grades San Francisco as overvalued on the run line in a neutral-park matchup and expects the Rockies’ bullpen improvements (3.62 ERA over the last two weeks) to keep them within a run more than half the time.

Jason Bevilacqua advised grabbing the Marlins +1.5 at +105, explaining that Dimers’ simulations give Miami a 52.1% probability of covering—good for a 3.4% expected-value edge. He emphasized that the recommendation is purely numbers-driven, generated after running thousands of game simulations and comparing the projected line to current odds at BetMGM.

Bevilacqua’s model also shows value on the Marlins outright, recommending a +225 moneyline play with a 33.7% win probability—translating to a 3.2% edge versus FanDuel’s price. Although the probability is low, the plus odds make it a profitable long-shot per Dimers’ expected-value calculations generated from thousands of automated simulations.

Jason Bevilacqua said the Dimers predictive analytics model flagged the Angels–Twins matchup as a +EV total, projecting a 53.1% chance the game lands Over 8 runs. After thousands of Monte Carlo simulations, the model shows a 2.6% edge versus the market price of -102. Bevilacqua noted that the pick comes from the same simulation engine that powers all Dimers best bets and is time-stamped for the 7:40 PM ET first pitch.

Bevilacqua reported that Dimers’ simulations recommend Under 10.5 runs (−118 DraftKings) in the Mariners‑Red Sox clash at 6:45 PM ET. The model outputs a 59.4% probability and a 5.3% edge, projecting both offenses to combine for only 9.9 runs on average once weather and bullpen freshness are factored in. Any total above 10 provides what the site flags as a top‑tier Wednesday edge.

Bevilacqua relayed that the Dimers model makes Mets +1.5 a worthwhile play at −156 on FanDuel for Wednesday’s 1:10 PM ET tilt with Philadelphia. The algorithm gives New York a 64.5% probability to stay within a run, producing a 3.5% expected value edge. Simulated distributions project a one‑run game 34% of the time, making the extra cushion particularly attractive in what the model grades as a coin‑flip matchup on the moneyline.

Jason Bevilacqua said the Dimers predictive‑analytics model sees solid value on Under 8.5 runs in Wednesday’s 1:10 PM ET Reds–Marlins game. After thousands of Monte Carlo simulations, the model assigns the Under a 56.4% hit rate and a 5.9% edge against the posted −102 price at BetMGM. Bevilacqua noted that all model edges above 5% are flagged as +EV and that the day game’s roof‑closed setting in Miami historically suppresses run environment, reinforcing the Under call.

Garofolo highlighted Marlins moneyline at +114 as another playable edge. The site’s machine‑learning engine gives Miami a 49% win probability, versus 46.7% implied odds, creating a 2.3% positive expected value. He framed it as a sprinkle opportunity for bettors preferring to chase plus money rather than the safer run line.

Garofolo relayed that the Dimers model likes Under 8.5 runs at -115 in Reds–Marlins. Simulations spit out a 55.8% hit rate, translating to a 2.3% expected value edge. With both offenses projected below league‑average run expectancy in the humid Miami park, the model expects pitchers to keep scoring in check.

Dave Garofolo said Dimers’ predictive analytics model fired on Marlins +1.5 at -144. After thousands of Monte Carlo‑style simulations, the model gives Miami a 62.8% chance to cover, a 3.8% edge over the implied 59.0% break‑even line. Garofolo noted the pick is one of Tuesday’s highest‑rated edges on the site, enough to warrant run‑line exposure despite laying juice.

The Dimers engine assigns a 51% probability to the game staying Under 8.5 (‑110). Slade credited cooler April temperatures (forecast 55°F with 10 mph in from center), two starters with above‑average ground‑ball rates, and both offenses ranking bottom‑third in hard‑hit rate against right‑handed pitching over the last two weeks. Factoring in bullpen freshness—Cleveland’s high‑leverage trio all on two days’ rest—the model leans to the Under, albeit with only a modest edge.

Slade highlighted Cleveland +1.5 at ‑166 as the model’s preferred derivative, projecting a 62% chance the Guardians stay within a run. The simulation leans on Cleveland’s 9‑4 record in one‑run games, a Yankee bullpen that has logged 10.2 high‑leverage innings over the past three days, and Progressive Field’s run‑suppressing profile (bottom‑10 in HR factor). With neither starter working deep—Schmidt averages 4.8 IP, Williams 5.1—the model expects a tight, bullpen‑heavy contest that favors taking the extra run and a half.

Nick Slade said Dimers’ MLB model ran 10,000 fresh simulations of Monday’s matchup at Progressive Field and spit out a 51% win probability for the Yankees. Current market price is ‑120 (implied 54.5%), so the model still lists the Bronx Bombers as the most likely winner despite the juice. Slade noted the projection bakes in Gavin Williams’ 4.58 ERA, Clarke Schmidt’s 26% strikeout rate and park‑adjusted run environments, then layers in weather and bullpen rest as part of “thousands of additional inputs.” While the edge is thin, the model flags Yankees ML as its top straight‑up play for this game.

Nick Slade said Dimers’ machine‑learning model ran 10,000 simulations of Padres–Tigers and landed on Detroit as the straight‑up winner 53% of the time. Despite rookie Keider Montero’s ugly 0‑1 record and 9.00 ERA squaring off against Randy Vasquez’s 1.74 ERA, the Tigers still grade out as the more likely side because the model folds in park factors at Comerica, full‑season offensive metrics, bullpen freshness and defensive efficiency ratings. With books dealing Detroit around ‑130, the model shows a sliver of value on the Tigers moneyline relative to the implied 56.5% break‑even probability.

Slade highlighted that the model’s largest discrepancy in Monday’s game is on San Diego +1.5 runs. The simulations show the Padres covering the run line 64% of the time, well above the ‑188 price that implies only 65% and comfortably beating the model’s internal 59% breakeven. The projection factors in Vasquez’s 27% strikeout rate, Detroit’s bottom‑five wRC+ versus right‑handed pitching, and the Tigers’ bullpen carrying the 24th‑ranked xFIP over the last two weeks. Because Detroit is favored but projected to win a close one, the +1.5 cushion on San Diego grades out as Dimers’ top betting edge for the matchup.

Jason Bevilacqua said Dimers’ predictive analytics model spit out the White Sox +1.5 at +112 as Monday’s top run‑line value. After running thousands of machine‑learning simulations, the model gives Chicago a 50.1% chance of covering, which translates to a 2.9% expected‑value edge over the posted odds. The pick hinges on what the simulations project to be a tightly contested early game at Fenway, making the extra 1.5 runs plus money worth a bet.

According to Bevilacqua, Dimers’ simulations project just 7.4 total runs in Reds‑Marlins, creating value on Under 8 at -115. The model assigns a 56% hit rate, yielding a 2.6% positive expected value. With both clubs profiling as below‑average offenses in the early season data dump, the model leans toward a pitcher’s duel at LoanDepot Park.

Bevilacqua relayed that the Dimers model also likes a small stab at the White Sox outright at +240. Simulations give Chicago a 31.6% win probability, good for a 2.2% edge versus the market. Even with Boston favored at home, the model’s range of outcomes shows enough upset equity to justify a plus‑odds moneyline sprinkle.

Nick Slade said Dimers’ machine‑learning engine ran 10,000 simulations of Saturday’s Dodgers‑Rangers matchup and landed on Texas 51% of the time, creating a small edge against the market‑wide ‑110 moneyline. The model also preferred Rangers +1.5 runs (priced ‑178) with a 64% cover probability and projected the 8‑run total to go over 55% of the time. Slade noted the pitching matchup—Nathan Eovaldi (1‑2, 2.55 ERA) versus rookie Roki Sasaki (0‑1, 3.29 ERA)—and recent data inputs as key factors baked into the simulations. Bettors looking for plus‑EV spots are encouraged to take the Rangers straight up or on the run line, with a lean toward the over.

Slade noted the same 10,000‑run simulation spits out a 52% probability that Reds‑Orioles finishes below the 9‑run total. The projection leans on Hunter Greene’s sizzling 0.98 ERA through three starts and Baltimore rookie Brandon Young’s clean early stat line, plus a neutral weather forecast that isn’t expected to boost offense at Camden Yards. While only a slight edge, the model still prefers the under at current ‑105 odds.