Bryan Zarpentine points out Matt Chapman's recent and historical struggles against Taijuan Walker as a strong reason to bet the under 0.5 hits prop. Chapman is hitless in eight at-bats lifetime against Walker and is mired in a current slump, hitting just .184 this season and going hitless in six consecutive games. Despite the general assumption that Chapman won't remain slumping indefinitely, this unfavorable matchup combined with his recent poor form makes fading Chapman an appealing value at +170 odds on bet365.

Zachary Roberts highlights Matt Chapman as a strong home run candidate despite an unexpectedly slow start with just two homers so far. Chapman faces Yankees pitcher Marcus Stroman, who's struggling with a 7.27 ERA and minimal strikeout numbers. The highly favorable pitching matchup signals an excellent opportunity for Chapman's power stroke to spark, making him an appealing home run betting option today.

Grant Neiffer identified Matt Chapman as providing good value to hit a home run at +370 odds against Reds pitcher Hunter Greene on opening day. Neiffer explained Chapman's notable power upside, referencing his previous 36-homer season in Oakland. He further highlighted Chapman's refreshed approach and improved performance last season (27 HR in San Francisco) and pointed out an enormous environmental upgrade for Chapman hitting in Cincinnati, one of baseball's most hitter-friendly venues. Hunter Greene allowed an unsustainably low 0.7 HR/9 last season despite historically having elevated homer rates—1.7 HR/9 in rookie season and roughly 1.5 HR/9 afterward. Neiffer sees regression toward this higher rate coming, particularly given Greene's velocity-heavy approach, making Chapman a prime candidate to go yard given his power profile and stadium upgrade even with cooler but acceptable early-season weather.