Sniper warned DraftKings players to keep exposure to Rafael Fiziev near zero even though he slightly leans Ignacio Bahamondes in the matchup. Fiziev is the slate’s most expensive underdog yet historically underwhelms in fantasy scoring, topping 100 DK points only once (a first-round finish of Renato Moicano). His next-best total is 86 in a five-round win over Rafael dos Anjos; all other victories average around 70. With both fighters unlikely to wrestle or hunt control time, Sniper expects limited peripherals and doubts Fiziev can offset his salary without an early knockout. The –135 finish prop implies violence, but Sniper projects it to come late, further capping Fiziev’s ceiling. In builds where salary relief is crucial, he prefers cheaper live dogs like Ismail Naurdiev or Bogdan Grad and will largely fade Fiziev outside of a few contrarian MME sprinkles.

Dan Tom warned listeners that the sudden market love for Ignacio Bahamondes could be a ‘trap’ because bettors are ignoring Rafael Fiziev’s under-the-radar grappling chops. Tom re-watched the Gaethje fight and noticed Fiziev shot multiple clean singles in round one despite taking the bout on short notice—a reminder the Kyrgyz owns a combat-sambo background. Fiziev also appeared leaner and showed improved cardio, making Tom question the narrative that he always fades. He urged handicappers to ask, ‘Have we actually seen Bahamondes defend layered takedowns against elite opposition?’ and pointed out that both men are turning around quickly, negating Bahamondes’ perceived freshness edge. Although Tom hasn’t locked his bet card yet, he suggested either passing or nibbling Fiziev near even money rather than blindly tailing the trendy dog. His takeaway: once the public piles on range-striker Bahamondes, Fiziev’s surprise level-changes could swing a razor-close fight—and your ticket.

Kunath predicted Rafael Fiziev to beat Ignacio Bahamondes by decision. He called this a major step up for Bahamondes, labeling him "one-dimensional" and too hittable against a striker of Fiziev’s caliber. While Bahamondes owns recent wins over Jalin Turner and Manuel Torres, Kunath emphasized those matchups were carefully managed. Fiziev, once touted as the next big thing at 155, now has a full camp after the short-notice loss to Justin Gaethje and should regain his trademark speed, angles, and body kicking. Kunath expects Fiziev’s power-plus-volume approach to bank rounds, punish the taller opponent’s mid-section, and win on the cards despite giving up height and reach.

Kunath projected Rafael Fiziev to outpoint Ignacio Bahamondes over three rounds, calling it a classic step-up mismatch. Fiziev’s recent skid is tied to timing (short-notice rematch with Justin Gaethje right off injury) rather than skill degradation. With a full camp and rust shaken, Kunath expects the former Muay Thai phenom to look like the "next big thing at 155" again—faster hands, heavier counters, superior body work and trademark footwork angles. Bahamondes, while taller and riding momentum from finishes of Manuel Torres and a past-his-prime Jalin Turner, remains one-dimensional and hittable. Kunath believes Fiziev’s power-plus-speed combination will punish the body, sap the taller striker’s cardio, and pile up volume for a clear decision. Bettors are advised to target the moneyline or Fiziev by decision props, fading the public’s recency bias toward the lanky prospect.

Gumby fired on Rafael Fiziev, calling this a classic ‘levels’ matchup. Fiziev’s three-fight skid came against Mateusz Gamrot and Justin Gaethje—names hovering around title shots—and he arguably beat Gaethje on two scorecards. Bahamondes, meanwhile, was out-pointed by shorter, stockier technicians John Makdessi and Ludovit Klein. Gumby believes that’s relevant because Fiziev also fights from a low center of gravity, unloads lightning combinations, then changes levels for surprise doubles (1.39 takedowns per 15). He expects those reactive shots and the Thai-style body kicks to mute Bahamondes’ reach advantage. With Fiziev still carrying a 63% striking-defense rate and proven five-round cardio, Gumby projects multiple takedowns and rib-kicks adding up to either a late finish or clear decision at +110.

Millz Young recommended jumping on Rafael Fiziev at +100 after the market swung to make Ignacio Bahamondes a –120 favorite. Millz argued that Fiziev is still the faster and more powerful striker, pointing to Fiziev’s absurd 4.86 significant strikes landed per minute and his trademark Muay Thai counters that stung elite competition such as Justin Gaethje. He expects Fiziev to be first in most exchanges, rack up the heavier optics with body-head combos, and feed off a partisan crowd in Baku that will be chanting his name. Bahamondes’ length and flashy spin attacks are real concerns, but Millz believes Fiziev’s tighter boxing and superior in-cage experience—eight UFC bouts against ranked opponents—will outscore the lower-output Chilean over three rounds. He advised playing the moneyline and sprinkling a KO/TKO prop at +250 given Fiziev’s 66% career finishing rate.

Bedtime MMA—an admitted long-time Fiziev skeptic—finally sided with Rafael Fiziev to defeat Ignacio Bahamondes by unanimous decision. He argued Fiziev owns a massive speed and explosiveness edge, plus far superior strength of schedule after wars with Justin Gaethje and Mateusz Gamrot. Bahamondes brings height, reach, and volume kicks, yet lacks fast-twitch athleticism and was already pieced up on the feet by Ludovit Klein. Bedtime expects a striking-only affair where Fiziev’s quick counters, jab-over-hand combos, and trademark inside leg kicks consistently make the lankier Bahamondes whiff, then pay. Over three rounds Fiziev’s gas tank historically holds (29-28 master), so he should bank at least two frames even if he slows late. He advised playing Fiziev money-line or decision, fading Bahamondes’ perceived hype while the market underrates the former title contender coming off tougher opposition.

Dan Tom leaned toward Rafael Fiziev as a plus-money side, framing the matchup as a classic “trap” spot for bettors who are automatically fading the older fighter on a quick turnaround. Tom reminded listeners that Fiziev absorbed damage against Justin Gaethje but noted Muay Thai specialists often rebound quickly because they are accustomed to high-frequency competition. He believes Fiziev’s heritage angle—being one of only three Azerbaijan representatives on the card—adds motivational fuel. Stylistically, Tom expects Fiziev’s southpaw body- and leg-kick arsenal plus sharp left-hand counters to be available all night; both Ignacio Bahamondes losses came to compact technicians (John Makdessi, Ludovit Klein) who timed counters down the middle. Tom questioned whether Bahamondes, still just 27, is advanced enough as a counter-striker to punish those kicks and stressed that Bahamondes is inviting them by default guard habits. Given the odds flip from Fiziev opening as the favorite to now a slight dog, Tom branded the bout “dog or pass,” advising either taking Fiziev straight or passing rather than chasing the trendy Bahamondes side.