Lonte Smith echoed the play on Cincinnati, taking both the first-five innings and full-game moneylines. He highlighted Nick Lodolo’s road dominance — two earned runs or fewer in five of six road starts, three of them scoreless — and noted the left-hander limited Chicago to three earned over five innings on 5/25. Brown’s form has cratered: eight earned in 4.2 IP versus the Reds last week and 14 earned across his last two appearances overall. With Cincy’s bats rolling again Friday, Smith sees an early lead and trusts the Reds’ bullpen more than Chicago’s at the moment. Anything near plus money in the first five and +130 or better full game is a buy for him.

Scott Reichel said the number on Chicago is completely out of whack and grabbed Cincinnati at +138. He pointed out that Cubs starter Brown owns a 6.39 ERA and has been rocked for 14 earned runs over his last two outings, including eight earned against these same Reds on May 25th. Brown has given up at least seven hits in four of his past five starts and simply is not missing bats. By contrast, Nick Lodolo sports a 3.39 ERA and while he has surrendered three runs in two of his last three, Reichel still grades him clearly superior. He believes this line should sit closer to Cubs -130, so the current price gifts more than a quarter-run of value. With Cincinnati’s offense heating up — they plated nine runs in Friday’s opener — Reichel recommended taking the Reds straight up and even sprinkling first five if the number is right.

He also played the game over the posted total. Their previous meeting exploded for 19 runs, and both clubs’ season profiles scream offense: Cubs games are 31-19-6 to the over, averaging 10.09 total runs, while Reds road games average 8.66. Brown’s home ERA sits at 6.93 across six Wrigley outings, and Lodolo owns a rough history against Chicago. Each side has scored at least four runs in the majority of their recent contests, and the over has cashed in three of the last four head-to-head matchups. With shaky bullpens and warm Chicago weather, he projected another double-digit total.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Cubs on the moneyline. He reminded listeners that Chicago owns the most productive offense in baseball, piling up 151 runs at Wrigley and averaging 5.89 runs per game overall. Brown was torched for eight runs when these same clubs met last week, but his 3.70 FIP over the last three starts suggests some bad luck. Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s bats have the second-highest road strikeout count in the National League (284), and the Reds bullpen has blown multiple leads this month. Chicago has also taken five of the last eight against Cincinnati. With home-field advantage and Craig Counsell ready to give Brown a quick hook if necessary, the host’s bats and bullpen depth make the Cubs the safer side.

It's The Final Round cooked up Seiya Suzuki as his own play after a pitching change scratched the original target. Suzuki is batting .375 off lefties this season and is 5-for-11 (.455) with seven walks lifetime vs Nick Lodolo. In Lodolo’s last start against Chicago, Suzuki racked up three hits (HR, double) and three RBIs. The Cubs outfielder has hit safely in 10 straight games and cleared 1.5 total bases in seven of nine. The tout’s favorite angle is over 0.5 doubles at +375, noting Suzuki has doubled in seven of his past nine contests. Standard hit props are even safer, but the long-odds double prop is the upside swing he plans to sprinkle.

Kenny G recommended backing Cincinnati at +138, calling them a live dog against a Cubs club forced into a full bullpen day. He noted Nick Lodolo’s steady 3.39 ERA and the Reds’ surging offense (6, 2, 7, 7, 8 runs in the last five, 9th in MLB in runs, 12th in slugging). Meanwhile Chicago will open with Drew Pomeranz, but must rely on a relief corps that owns a merely average 3.77 ERA to cover nine innings. Kenny pointed out the Cubs’ bats have cooled (2, 2, 4, 3, 8 runs recently) and that a bullpen game amplifies their risk. With the hotter lineup, the more traditional starter and a plus-money number, Kenny labeled the Reds the side to bet and added a lean to the over 7.5.

Guy Boston Sports said the plus-money tag on Cincinnati (around +140) is simply too juicy to pass up. Andrew Abbott has been, in his words, "nothing short of fantastic" all season, and he already beat the Cubs 6-4 in the exact same pitching matchup last week. On the other side, Colin Rea’s wheels are starting to wobble—his most recent line versus the Reds was 5.0 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 1 HR, 6 ER with eight strikeouts. Even with a chilly, damp Wrigley forecast, he expects Chicago’s lineup to manage three-to-four runs while Cincinnati’s bats bounce back after a two-run clunker. That sets up both a money-line play on the Reds and an over play on the full-game total, banking on Rea’s volatility and Abbott’s ability to hold the lead once the Cincinnati bullpen gets involved.

Kenny G labeled the Reds +144 as his early "dog of the day." He argued that Andrew Abbott (4-0, 1.77 ERA) has surrendered just two earned runs across his last five starts and already limited Chicago to one run over 5.2 innings in their previous meeting. Colin Rea owns a respectable 3.28 ERA overall, but the same Reds lineup just tagged him for six earned in five frames. Cincinnati’s bats have produced 7, 8 and 6 runs in recent games and still sit 8th in MLB scoring, while Chicago, though still the league’s highest-scoring club, mustered only 3-4-2 runs in a soft sweep of Colorado. Bullpens are a wash (Reds 4.05 ERA, Cubs 3.83), so Kenny expects Abbott to neutralize the Cubs’ power and give Cincinnati a live shot at Wrigley. He advised checking wind direction but felt the plus-money number offered clear value.

The Bettor Mark backed Andrew Abbott and the Reds on the money line at +145 in Wrigley Field. He said Abbott has been "fairly impressive" this season and gives Cincinnati a clear pitching edge over the still-undecided Chicago starter. Because wind direction can turn Wrigley into either a launching pad or a dead zone, Mark likes grabbing the plus-money now, noting that a neutral or inward wind would only strengthen the Reds’ advantage. He framed it as a buy-low spot on a divisional dog that should control the mound, making the Reds his preferred side.

Eric Lindquist said Pete Crow-Armstrong is worth a same-game ticket for both a home-run and a stolen-base Friday at Wrigley. He likes the across-field wind, noting it keeps the ball in the air without the typical knock-down effect. Southpaw Andrew Abbott owns just a 21% K-rate and allows a .174 ISO to right-handed bats, while Cincinnati’s catching situation (possible backup instead of Tyler Stephenson) should make the bases even easier to run on. Lindquist added that PCA is on “another planet” at the plate right now and hinted that the MVP chatter isn’t crazy given his power/speed combo, so he wants to attack both markets in DFS and the prop streets.

Lonte Smith echoed the same wager—Cubs moneyline and first-five under—adding several supporting nuggets. He noted Imanaga’s lone clunker (6 ER, 7 H over 5 IP) came against these Reds but expects a bounce-back at home, where his ERA is nearly two runs lower. Abbott has allowed one run or fewer in seven of his last eight starts, so Lonte expects a 1-1 or 2-1 scoreboard through five. Chicago has handled southpaws all season (.270 AVG vs LHP) and is raking .280 at Wrigley while riding an 8-2 stretch (four straight wins). The Reds are hitting .280 over their last ten but remain wildly inconsistent. Given both pens’ volatility, he prefers to isolate the early innings, then ride Chicago’s consistency the rest of the way.

Scott Reichel said he is laying the juice with the Cubs and pairing it with a first-five under. His case centered on Chicago’s balance and home dominance (18-10 at Wrigley) versus a Reds lineup he labeled top-heavy and a bullpen he flat-out does not trust. Even though Andrew Abbott owns a sparkling 1.77 ERA, Reichel pointed out Cincinnati is below .500 on the road and will have to lean on that shaky pen once Abbott exits. On the other side, Shota Imanaga (listed as Ria in the pod) has been excellent outside one rocky outing and should keep the game quiet early. With two in-form starters and temps expected in the low 60s, he projects a 2-1 type script through five before the Cubs’ deeper lineup pulls away late.

LM Tipster bet Under 8.5 runs because rookie Andrew Abbott (4-0, 1.77 ERA) has held opponents to a .196 average while Cubs right-hander Colin Rea (3-1, 3.28 ERA) limits hard contact (34% hard-hit). With Wrigley winds projected to blow in at 10 mph and both bullpens ranking top-10 in ERA over the past two weeks, LM expects a classic NL Central pitchers’ duel.

Daniel Kohn relayed that the SportsLine Projection Model makes the Over 8.5 runs the preferred play for Friday’s matinee at Wrigley. After running 10,000 simulations, the model spit out a 9.6-run median outcome and is riding a 27-21 (56%) profit streak on top-rated MLB picks in 2025. The analytics bump comes from both lineups entering hot—Chicago has gone 8-2 in its last 10 with four straight wins while Cincinnati owns a .301-hitting T.J. Friedl and unbeaten (4-0, 1.77 ERA) rookie Andrew Abbott on the hill. The Cubs counter with Colin Rea, who has surrendered two or fewer earned runs in nine of 11 outings but rarely works deep, putting extra innings in the hands of two middling bullpens. Add in a day-game Wrigley wind that historically boosts run production and the model sees enough scoring paths to justify an Over ticket at the current 8.5 number.

LM Tipster targeted Elly De La Cruz to steal a base, citing his 97th-percentile sprint speed and aggressive 29-for-32 success rate. Cubs catcher Yan Gomes has thrown out only 18% of runners, and Colin Rea owns one of the slowest slide-steps on the slate (1.55 secs to the plate). In a low-scoring game LM expects Cincinnati to manufacture offense on the bases.