Bill Harrelson said Andrew Abbott should stay under 2.5 earned runs in Wednesday’s start versus Chicago. Abbott has cashed this number in eight of his last nine outings and in 16 of 19 starts in 2025 (84%), surrendering just 1.4 earned runs per game during that stretch. He also held the Cubs to one earned run in each of two previous meetings this season and has a 68% hit rate on the same prop going back to 2024. Harrelson referenced Abbott’s “advanced metrics off the charts” and noted that rival books such as Hard Rock and Fliff have either juiced or removed the line, calling it a clear mis-price on PrizePicks/Underdog.

Kenny G backed the Reds at +118, calling the price too generous with Andrew Abbott on the mound. Abbott is 8-1 with a 2.15 ERA and already worked two dominant outings against Chicago in late May. Kenny noted that Cincinnati’s bullpen has stabilized after season-long volatility, while the Cubs’ bats have cooled— posting 1, 2, 5, 3, 1, 10 and 3 runs in their last seven. Chicago’s rookie* Cade Horton is on a good run (no earned runs in four of five starts) but the tout worries about inconsistency from a 23-year-old in his first look at this lineup. With Cincinnati still 10th in MLB in runs scored and the Cubs dropping two straight, he sees enough edge to grab the dog money line.

Lindquist advised taking the Reds moneyline over the reeling Cubs. He called Chicago "lifeless" at the plate in recent games and sees no reason to back their projected starter—whom he dubbed "Miso Horton"—in any capacity. On the other side, All-Star lefty Andrew Abbott remains undervalued by the market. Lindquist expects the price on Cincinnati to shorten by first pitch and wants to grab the current number before the adjustment hits.

Lindquist flagged Pete Crow-Armstrong as a long-shot home-run target in his expected call-up game against Cincinnati right-hander Zack Littell. Littell has been torched by left-handed bats all season—lefties own a .386 wOBA and 1.8 HR/9 off him—giving PCA an immediate power ceiling. Lindquist noted Crow-Armstrong’s loft-heavy batted-ball profile (high launch angle, plenty of pulled fly balls) and added that a forecasted pull-blowing breeze at Wrigley should further juice his chances to leave the yard. Once books hang a number, Lindquist plans to sprinkle the HR prop, calling anything north of +500 “worth a shot.”

Eric Lindquist highlighted Pete Crow-Armstrong’s home-run prop as a value play versus right-hander Zach Littell. He noted Littell’s severe left-handed splits—“.210 ISO allowed and 99 problems, all of them lefties”—coupled with a modest 18% strike-out rate. Crow-Armstrong profiles perfectly, elevating the ball with authority and pulling for power, conditions that play even better with the forecasted hitter-friendly wind at Wrigley. With Cincinnati’s bullpen taxed, Lindquist expects multiple cracks at vulnerable pitching and likes PCA to leave the yard at +600 or better.

Kenny G added that the first-five-innings under, the full-game under 8, and the no-run-first-inning are all live in Reds-Cubs. He cites a quality pitching matchup: Nick Lodolo (3.09 ERA, 11 Ks in his last start vs LAD) versus Michael Soroka, who held Cincinnati to one earned run over 5⅔ IP in their recent meeting. Both starters have been limiting hard contact and wind conditions at Wrigley are forecast to be neutral. Cincinnati’s lineup is middle-of-the-pack (20th slugging) and the Cubs’ sticks have gone cold (5-3-1-10-3 runs last five). With two capable starters, a solid Cubs bullpen, and mediocre offenses, Kenny expects a quiet first inning and a low-scoring first half that should spill into a full-game under.

Kenny G believes –142 is a bargain for the Cubs at Wrigley. Chicago owns a 35-18 home record and hands the ball to Michael Soroka, whose last four outings were short but solid, including 5⅔ IP of one-run ball against these Reds on July 23. Cincinnati is just 25-28 on the road, their bullpen sits at 4.00 ERA, and their offense has produced 2, 3, 11, 5, 4, and 2 runs across the past six games. By contrast the Cubs pen has been a strength most of the year and Soroka already proved he can quiet this lineup. Kenny expects the North Siders to pick up needed ground on Milwaukee with a home victory.