Matt LaMarca acknowledged Miami’s dreadful opener but still tagged De'Von Achane as a high-variance GPP target, citing the back’s monster home/early-season splits: +5.18 DK Plus/Minus at Hard Rock Stadium and +15.15 in September/October. The Dolphins are slight favorites over New England, a defense that ranked 21st in rush-defense EPA and gave up the seventh-most PPR points to RBs in 2024. If the offense stabilizes back in Miami heat, Achane’s big-play profile could pay off tournament winning upside at $6,900.

Will Hill took the Dolphins moneyline, banking on the NFL’s frequent Week-to-Week correction where teams that looked worst rebound. He added that South Florida’s September heat and humidity remain a unique home-field edge for Miami.

Josh Shepardson said bettors should grab New England +1.5 at FanDuel, arguing Miami is a roster in free-fall. He reminded readers the Dolphins were humiliated 33-8 in Week 1 and have slid from 11-6 (+105 PD) in 2023 to 8-9 (-19) in 2024. PFF graded their pass rush dead last and coverage 27th last week, while the offensive line—already 20th in pass protection a year ago—now must replace retired LT Terron Armstead and cope without G James Daniels and likely RT Austin Jackson. Shepardson highlighted Tua Tagovailoa’s struggles under pressure (17th-worst PFF grade, 7.5% turnover-worthy-play rate in 2024) and believes the Patriots can exploit that with new additions DT Milton Williams (22.6% win rate, two hurries and two hits) and EDGE Harold Landry (2.5 sacks, 17.2% win rate) who flashed immediately in Week 1. With CB Storm Duck (ankle) expected out, Miami’s secondary is thin, giving New England’s offense a get-right spot. Shepardson concludes the “dysfunctional Dolphins shouldn’t be laying points to anyone” and recommends the Pats plus the points.

James Boutros said Hunter Henry is a strong bet to clear 35.5 receiving yards at -112. In Week 1 Henry tied for the Patriots lead with eight targets, turned four of them into 66 yards, and never left the field on passing downs, logging 93% of the snaps. Boutros pointed out that Miami’s pass defense looked lost when it let Daniel Jones carve it up and then allowed rookie TE Tyler Warren to post a 7-76-0 line on nine looks. With Drake Maye expected to be more efficient than he was against Las Vegas, Boutros anticipates that New England will again funnel intermediate targets to Henry and exploit the middle of a soft Dolphins zone, making 40-plus yards the most likely outcome.

MacMillan grabbed Miami –1 (–110, Caesars), calling the Dolphins a "penny stock" after their Week 1 embarrassment and offseason locker-room rumors. He cited the Dolphins’ league-best rush EPA in the opener as evidence the offensive talent remains intact. Conversely, he was already bearish on New England and said Mike Vrabel "isn’t an automatic fix." With a one-point spread, he sees value backing the more explosive roster in a bounce-back spot.