Bill Harrelson recommended Elias Diaz UNDER 0.5 total bases. Diaz is 0-for-his-last-nine games at the plate and has failed to record a base knock in 16 of his last 20 (80 %). Limited volume helps—he usually sees only 2–3 plate appearances. Against the Phillies he has gone hitless in five straight and in five of his last eight overall. For the season the under is hitting 64 % (45/70). Harrelson highlighted an 0-for-8 career line versus left-hander Cristopher Sanchez and Diaz’s weaker split against southpaws as additional edges. The market agrees: books such as Hard Rock have the under heavily shaded, giving bettors another reason to fade the Rockies catcher.

B Wade prefers Cristopher Sanchez at an alternate 3.5-strikeout line instead of the listed 4.5. Sanchez has recorded at least four punch-outs in 14 consecutive starts and has fallen short of that mark only twice all season. He struck out five Padres in their meeting 11 days ago and carries a 1.13 WHIP with a sub-3.00 ERA. Dropping to 3.5 adds margin while still capitalizing on his consistent K floor, making it an ideal parlay booster in Wade’s view.

B Wade took Fernando Tatis Jr. over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs. Tatis has cashed this prop in seven of his last ten and in all four July games versus Philadelphia. He is 3-for-8 off Sunday’s starter Cristopher Sanchez with a homer and two RBI. While Tatis’ season splits against lefties are merely average, his individual success versus Sanchez and his current 8-for-11 run of overs make 1.5 an attractive number, particularly at PETCO Park where his OPS is 60 points higher.

Kenny G labeled the Phillies –150 at Petco as the best value on the board. Zack Wheeler just tossed a one-hit, 12-strikeout complete game and previously shut out San Diego over eight innings with 10 Ks on June 30. Even if fatigue is a risk, Kenny refuses to fade a 2.17 ERA arm in this spot. The concern is a shaky Philadelphia bullpen (4.36 ERA), but he trusts it more than a Padres lineup sitting 24th in runs and 25th in slugging. San Diego turns to Yu Darvish (0-1, 4.91) making only his second start after an injury-marred first half; he lasted just 3.2 innings against Arizona. The Padres do sport a stout 3.28 bullpen ERA and a 29-17 home record, yet they have played 27-18-1 to the under at Petco, underscoring their offensive struggles. Kenny considered the 7.5 total but ultimately sided with Philadelphia, believing bookmakers are over-discounting Wheeler on short rest while overrating Darvish’s name brand in his current state.

Welsh likes Philadelphia to lead by at least one run after five innings at ‑110. The edge starts with the pitching matchup: the Phillies send their ace (not named in the clip) against an opponent whose rotation spot has been a revolving door. Philly’s offense leads MLB in wRC+ the first two times through the order, while its staff owns a sub-3.00 ERA through five frames. By isolating the first five, Welsh avoids a shaky middle-relief corps and counts on the Phillies’ potent top-of-lineup to jump ahead early.