Everett laid ‑2.5 with Washington, reasoning that Atlanta cratered from a 22-6 Week 2 win to a shutout loss against Carolina and still may not have Jayden Daniels available. Meanwhile, the Commanders rank sixth in defensive DVOA versus the run, a key edge against Arthur Smith’s ground-centric attack. Unless the Falcons find a passing spark, Everett expects Sam Howell’s offense—averaging 26.3 ppg—to do enough to cover a short number.

Vic Tafur backed Washington ‑1 on the assumption Jayden Daniels clears doctors and plays. He contrasted that optimism with Atlanta quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who has completed only 32.4 % (11-of-24) of throws 10+ yards downfield, better than only Cam Ward. Because Washington’s front is tough against the run, Tafur expects Penix to be forced into those deep attempts again and come up short, giving the Commanders the edge.

Mike Talas said he is backing Washington -1.5 at Atlanta, noting FTN’s DVOA Game Projections make the Commanders a 5.5-point favorite. Even with uncertainty at quarterback — he mentioned it could be Marcus Mariota or Jayden Daniels — Talas believes the 4-point gap between his model and the market is enough to fire on the road favorite.

Dabbundo grabbed Falcons +1.5, arguing the line swings too far after Michael Penix Jr.’s rough road game. Last season this matchup closed Commanders –3.5 in D.C.; flipping home field and accounting for injuries should not create Washington road chalk. Jayden Daniels is still limited, Terry McLaurin has a quad issue, and Washington just placed Deatrich Wise Jr., Jonathan Jones, and Will Harris on IR. Since 2024 the Commanders have allowed the third-highest explosive-play rate, a weakness Atlanta’s speed can punish. He applies the NFL truism that no team is as bad as it looked a week earlier and buys low on the Falcons.

Atlanta opened +3 but Logan noted the line has already dipped to Falcons +2.5 because Washington’s QB Jayden Daniels (knee) and WR Terry McLaurin (quad) exited Week 3 with injuries. He explained that bettors reacted to the uncertain Commanders depth chart despite Atlanta’s 30-0 loss, and suggested the spread could tighten further toward the Falcons if Daniels is ruled out, rewarding those who locked in +2.5 or better.