Stuckey said he is buying Arizona upside with plus-money tickets on both a playoff berth (+150 or better) and the NFC West crown (~4-1). His model spits out 8.7 wins versus the market’s 8.5 and he already has the Cards favored in seven games. The case: • He loves Jonathan Gannon’s staff—last year’s unit schemed a bottom-five roster to league-average defense, and this offseason they flooded that side with talent: four top-70 picks on the D-line/secondary plus bargain adds like Poona Ford and additional corner depth. • The schedule is friendly (21st by his numbers) and opens with New Orleans and Carolina, two offenses that let a rebuilt defense settle in before tougher tests. • Offensively, the floor is high: Kyler Murray’s legs, a top-five rushing design, Trey McBride as an emerging TE1, and rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. to finally stretch the field after Arizona ranked dead-last in deep-ball EPA. • Indoor-heavy slate (only Tampa projects as a true weather risk) mitigates Murray’s arm strength concerns. • Regression trends point up: they were minus-3.5 in adjusted games lost and finished 3-6 in one-score games. Stuckey acknowledged the O-line still needs a veteran and the WR3 spot (Greg Dortch/Zay Jones) is shaky, but said those are nitpicks compared to the overall roster trajectory. With San Francisco and L.A. priced as clear chalk, he views Arizona as the chaos candidate that can flip the division and cash juicy futures.

Stuckey said the 49ers are one of his favorite upside buys rather than a straight win-total play. He pointed out that San Francisco was obliterated by injuries in 2024—first in Adjusted Games Lost and bottom-3 on both sides of the ball—yet still finished 8-9 despite going 2-6 in one-score games and fielding the league’s worst special-teams unit. With a new coordinator in that third phase, regression in close games and health alone could tack on multiple wins. The schedule is the real cheat code: his model makes it the NFL’s easiest and shows a net +33 rest-day edge after ranking top-five toughest last year. He concedes the roster lost a record amount of free-agent talent (Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, Javon Hargrave, Deebo Samuel, Charvarius Ward, etc.) and the defensive depth chart now leans heavily on rookies like Mike Hall Williams and Upton Stout, plus a patchwork secondary. Still, he projects 10.6 wins and sees far more paths to an 11-plus ceiling than to a collapse. Stuckey recommended skipping the juiced 10.5 win total and instead sprinkling on the +160 division price or a 16-to-1 Super Bowl ticket to capture the upside his numbers suggest.

Stuckey said he plans to fire on Chicago in the Week-1 opener against Minnesota, noting the market will likely price the Bears as small home dogs. The angle is a classic fade of a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start on the road—J.J. McCarthy has to debut at a loud Soldier Field against an upgraded Bears roster that now features Caleb Williams plus four new above-average offensive linemen. Stuckey already likes Chicago’s season-long upside and sees this single-game spot as an even cleaner way to capitalize: O’Connell’s offense historically starts slow, while Matt Eberflus will have spent an entire summer cooking up blitz looks for the rookie. Given McCarthy’s limited reps, Chicago’s continuity, and potential September wind swirling off Lake Michigan, Stuckey believes the Bears are live for the outright win and will grab any plus-money moneyline or anything better than +2.5 on the spread.

Stuckey—who admits he has never before bet a Chicago over—called the Bears his favorite worst-to-first candidate and grabbed +500 to win the NFC North, hedging with a +160 playoff-yes ticket. The case: • Ben Johnson takes over after first-year head coaches have gone 56-45-4 (55%) to the win-total over since 2002. • Chicago transformed the league’s most maligned offensive line by importing Joe Thuney (LG), Drew Dalman (C) and Austin Jackson (RG) and drafting tackle Ozzie Trapillo; every projected starter graded above-average at PFF in 2024. • Caleb Williams inherits an arsenal that now includes a Round-1 tight end, Round-2 slot burner Luther Burden and return ace Devin Duvernay. • On defense they added Brady Jarrett to a front that already features Montez Sweat and Gervon Dexter, while Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon finished 12th and 13th in PFF corner grades. • Schedule is top-5 in difficulty but offers sneaky edges: mini-bye before Week 1 versus Minnesota, full bye ahead of Washington revenge spot, and an outdoor Jared Goff finale at Soldier Field. • Regression flags point up—Chicago is 5-13 in one-score games the past two years and NFL history shows 19 of the last 22 seasons featured a worst-to-first division jumper. Stuckey projects 8.0 wins but says the ceiling looks more like 10-11, making the division price the cleanest way to capture upside while sidestepping a win-total already juiced to the over.

Stuckey grabbed New York +7 on the Week 1 look-ahead line and would bet anything at that key number or better. His logic: he is already fading Washington’s season-long outlook and believes the Giants are materially improved—Andrew Thomas returns healthy, the linebacker and safety rooms are bolstered, and Russell Wilson should be a functional bridge until Spencer “Dart” gets reps. Catching the Commanders before their new pieces settle in, on the road, gives Big Blue a live shot at an outright upset. Because Stuckey expects the Giants’ brutal schedule to wear them down later in the year, he prefers attacking this early-season spot rather than the full-season win total.

Stuckey likes Green Bay as his favorite long-shot in the 20-to-25-1 range to win the NFC. He is a self-described “Love believer,” pointing out that Jordan Love’s underlying tape was better than the box score once you account for one of the league’s highest drop rates. The Packers now boast a comically deep skill group—Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft, plus rookies Tez Walker and Javon Williams—and added explosive RB Marshawn Lloyd. Up front he expects an upgrade if Elgton Jenkins slides to center over Josh Myers, with the rest of the line finally slotting into natural spots. He also cited Matt LaFleur’s track record: 5-1 to the OVER on win totals, beating the market by 1.8 wins per season. If the offensive line stabilizes and the young defense takes even a mini-leap, Stuckey can easily see Green Bay emerging from a wide-open NFC, making the 22-1 (and similar 25-1) tickets worth a sprinkle.

Stuckey said he already bet Detroit’s regular-season UNDER 10.5 wins and is likely adding a +200 ticket on them to miss the playoffs. He projects only 9.75 victories after downgrading the offense for two massive departures: play-caller Ben Johnson and long-time pass-game coordinator Tanner Engstrand. Without those security blankets Stuckey fears Jared Goff—now facing far more outdoor games—reverts to the shaky version that crumbles against interior pressure. That pressure should come in bunches with All-Pro C Frank Ragnow retiring and the very real possibility Detroit starts two rookie guards. He called the offensive line plus Johnson “the heartbeat of this team” and thinks both arteries just got clogged. The schedule is another dagger—his numbers make it the single toughest slate in the league with road trips to Philly, Kansas City, Baltimore, Cincinnati, the Rams and every NFC North venue. Detroit also went 7-2 in one-score games last year, ranked No. 1 in special-teams DVOA and rode a defense he still grades as middle-of-the-pack; history says all three areas regress. Add those red flags together and Stuckey does not believe the Lions get to 11 wins in 2025.

Stuckey leaned to the OVER on New York’s 5.5 win total—even money in most shops—despite acknowledging their early-season schedule (at WAS, at DAL, Chiefs, Chargers, at Saints, Eagles) looks unfair for a team coming off 3–14. He projects 5.6 wins but sees a realistic path to six or seven because almost every position group should be materially better: a healthy Andrew Thomas returns to anchor the left side, rookie Abdu Carter upgrades a thin linebacker room, the safety tandem of Kyle Holland and Tyler Nubin provides range the secondary lacked, and the quarterback room of Russell Wilson, Dart and Jameis Winston is a clear step up from last year’s Daniel Jones–Tommy DeVito disaster. He also likes the upside of rookie RB Scatabow over Devin Singletary. New York went 1-8 in one-score games last year, a classic regression flag, and the offensive line injuries were historically bad. With even average health and league-average close-game luck, Stuckey thinks the G-Men can squeeze out six wins and cash an OVER ticket.

Stuckey conceded he despises the Brian Schottenheimer promotion and sees plenty of roster holes—an unsettled left-tackle competition, a backfield led by washed vets, questionable run defense, and Dak Prescott’s declining mobility—but still thinks Dallas is mis-priced at +205 to make the postseason and 6-to-1 to capture the NFC East. His model comes in at 7.8–7.9 wins versus a 7.5 market, and he stressed the macro context: the NFC South will almost certainly produce only one playoff entrant and the North could cannibalize itself, leaving a wildcard path if either Philadelphia or Washington underperforms. Historical regular-season success matters too—this core has averaged 11.2 wins the past four seasons even with front-office missteps like the Trey Lance and Jonathan Mingo trades. Given the open NFC landscape and rich odds, Stuckey plans to add a small exposure to Dallas playoff-yes (and a smaller flyer on the division) as a hedge against his existing Eagles and Commanders unders.

Stuckey also fired on the Commanders UNDER 9.5 (juiced). His model shows 8.7 wins and he rattled off the reasons: Washington went 8-4 in one-possession games and posted several miracle comebacks – outcomes that rarely repeat. Their 2025 schedule toughens to eight dates versus 2024 playoff teams after facing only five a year ago. While the front office beefed up the trenches with Laremy Tunsil, Javon Kinlaw and Solomon Kindley, the secondary and LB corps remain shaky: safeties grade poorly, Bobby Wagner is 35, Marshon Lattimore may be washed and Terry McLaurin’s contract standoff hangs over the offense. Rookie upside (Josh Conerly at LT, Cooper Amos at CB) is real but unproven. Finally, Stuckey warned that sophomore QB Jayden Daniels, brilliant in Year 1, is still susceptible to a Stroud-style regression. Combine all that with a more competitive NFC East and he sees value fading Washington.

Stuckey pounded the table for an Eagles UNDER 11.5 ticket. He projects only 10.8-10.9 wins after laying out a laundry list of red flags: 1) Philadelphia was the NFL’s 2nd-luckiest team on the injury front last season and went 8-1 in one-score games – both prime candidates for mean reversion. 2) An unforgiving 2025 slate features 11 opponents that made last year’s playoffs plus the quirk of zero back-to-back home dates. 3) Roster depth has thinned – departures of Josh Sweat, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Milton Williams, etc. leave fragile spots at edge, safety and along the OL/RB/WR rotations. 4) Defensive metrics tend to swing year-to-year; the unit already lost coordinator continuity and Stuckey doubts Vic Fangio can replicate 2024’s top-five performance. 5) New OC Kellen Moore could introduce early growing pains. Add it all up and he sees too many downside paths and virtually no room for the 12 wins needed to cash an over ticket.