Nick Whalen reminded drafters that A.J. Brown has delivered four top-10 finishes in the past five years and remains tethered to Philadelphia’s explosive, efficiency-driven offense. While the Eagles’ run-heavy red-zone approach may cap his top-three ceiling, Whalen views Brown’s week-to-week target share and big-play ability as one of the safest bets in the second-round receiver tier, with health concerns only marginally above the position average.

Ian Hartitz argued that Jalen Hurts offers the most bang for the buck among the ‘big four’ quarterbacks, and he backed it up with numbers. Over the past two seasons Hurts has generated 147 fantasy points on carries inside the five—57 more than Josh Allen and more than triple every QB except Allen and Anthony Richardson. Hartitz credited Philadelphia’s unique tush-push package for this edge and pointed out that Hurts’ ADP lags a full round behind Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen in most drafts. Given identical per-game ceilings, Hartitz believes drafters should attack that discount and take Hurts at the three-four turn rather than paying late-second capital for the other dual-threat passers.

Jake Ciely said Hurts belongs on his own tier at quarterback because no one can touch his goal-line production. Ciely pulled the numbers from his projections database: 147 fantasy points for Hurts on carries inside the five over the last two seasons, with Josh Allen a distant second at 90 and Anthony Richardson the only other passer above 40. Ciely stressed that Philadelphia designs its offense so Hurts, not the running backs, is the primary short-yardage finisher, giving him a weekly rushing-touchdown floor that simply does not exist anywhere else. That unique role is the driver for Ciely’s rank and projection edge, not just raw rushing volume, making Hurts a set-and-forget QB1 in season-long and a priority ceiling play whenever his DFS salary dips.

Best Ball Guy called A.J. Brown “one of the biggest buy opportunities of all time” and predicted the wideout will be a top-8 overall pick next season. His conviction stems from several points: every key Eagles pass-catcher missed time last year yet Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert were still “super uber efficient” in yards and scores; Philadelphia attempted the fewest passes it reasonably could and should regress toward league average; and the offense remains elite with a “great quarterback” in Jalen Hurts. With health and natural pass-rate rebound on deck, BBG expects Brown to smash his current ADP and insists drafters should load up before the market corrects.

Best Ball Guy called DeVonta Smith the 'safer pick' inside the mid-third-round receiver cluster but emphasized that his upside is still enormous. He argued that if Smith ever became the unquestioned focal point of Philadelphia’s passing attack, the smooth route-runner would 'have no problem putting up a 13- or 14-hundred yard season.' That ceiling, combined with Smith’s reliable weekly floor, makes him an attractive selection for Best Ball drafters who want both safety and playoff-week spike potential.

Rich Hribar noted that Jalen Hurts routinely slips to QB5—often behind Joe Burrow—making the entire Eagles stack far too easy to assemble in Best Ball drafts. With Hurts available a round later than expected, drafters can pair him with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert without paying full freight for an elite offense. Hribar said it feels like "getting away with something" given the front-end spike weeks Hurts supplies.

Ray Summerlin called A.J. Brown a "firewall" at his current ADP, arguing drafters know exactly what they are buying: elite weekly upside with none of the usage uncertainty that plagues most second-round receivers. Summerlin admitted he has to throttle his own exposure or he would end up with 70 percent Brown across his portfolio, underscoring how comfortable he feels clicking Brown anywhere in the pick-12 to pick-20 range.

Rich Hribar reminded listeners that with the tush-push again legal, Hurts produced two of the three greatest one-yard-line fantasy seasons of the past 25 years in 2023. Those six-point rushing touchdowns create outsized scoring relative to four-point passing TDs, giving Hurts unmatched red-zone leverage. Hribar still ranks Hurts over Jayden Daniels despite Daniels’ rushing profile, citing Philadelphia’s designed goal-line package and massive touchdown equity. Landing Hurts as the fourth QB off the board behind Allen, Jackson, and Mahomes is, in Hribar’s words, “stealing” for best-ball drafters stacking him with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

Rich Hribar said A.J. Brown is positioned for a spike in opportunities because Philadelphia’s offensive environment should change dramatically. The Eagles jump from the league’s 4th-easiest slate last year to the 4th-hardest in 2025, facing 10 teams that reached the 2024 playoffs. Hribar expects far fewer second-half coasting scenarios and a corresponding bump in pass rate. Brown already posted back-to-back 1,500-yard seasons on modest volume and ranked WR5 in first-half targets per game in 2024 before game script throttled him to WR60 after halftime (2.5 targets). With Julio-Jones–level yards-per-route efficiency and a realistic path to 150 targets, Hribar views Brown as an easy smash at the 1.08 turn in best-ball builds, especially when paired with Jalen Hurts stacks.

Rich Hribar called A.J. Brown a “slam-dunk firewall” selection in the 8–12 draft slots, taking him ahead of Ladd McConkey or the elite tight ends. Hribar pointed out that Brown has approached 150 targets and cleared 1,500 receiving yards in each of his two seasons with Philadelphia, posting Julio-Jones-level yards-per-route numbers despite the Eagles’ historically low pass rate. With the team expected to throw more in 2025, Hribar sees Brown as the safest anchor who still carries overall-WR1 upside, making him a priority click whenever he lasts to the late first or early second round in best-ball drafts.

Matt Striker labeled Saquon Barkley a potential bust at his RB3 overall ADP despite the Eagles’ elite offensive line. Barkley handled 340+ carries last season—a workload threshold that historically precedes a 20-25% dip in fantasy production the following year, according to the data set Striker referenced from Joe Pizipia’s ‘Fantasy Blackbook’ research. Striker thinks drafters are paying for last season’s ceiling rather than baking in inevitable regression, and he is fading Barkley in the top half of Round 1, preferring wide receivers or lower-mileage backs in that slot.

Ariel Epstein warned that the Eagles defense could regress early in 2025 despite Vic Fangio’s oversight. Philadelphia lost Josh Sweat, Darius Slay, Brandon Graham, C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Milton Williams—4,070 defensive snaps—while patching those holes with youngsters Jihaad Campbell plus veterans Josh Uche, Aziz Ojulari and Adoree Jackson. Epstein still projects a top-10 finish, but the turnover in personnel makes her anticipate a slower start, encouraging bettors to attack game-total overs and DFS stacks against the Eagles in September before the new pieces settle in.

Ariel Epstein advised taking the over on Jalen Hurts’ 3,200.5 season-long passing-yard prop. Hurts logged only 2,903 yards last year, yet Epstein expects new coordinator Kevin Batulow to front-load the passing attack to preserve Saquon Barkley. Hurts already flashes elite deep-ball chemistry; Batulow’s mandate is to improve his intermediate efficiency while maintaining the same overall scheme familiarity under Nick Sirianni. With a 300-yard cushion versus last season, a friendlier early-season pass rate, and the goal of keeping Barkley fresh, Epstein believes Hurts can eclipse 3,200 yards and reward over bettors.

Ariel Epstein recommended betting under 1,500.5 rushing yards on Saquon Barkley. Barkley erupted for 2,005 yards last season after moving from the league’s worst offensive line to what Epstein called the best, but she expects natural regression and workload management. New offensive coordinator Kevin Batulow—Jalen Hurts’ fifth play-caller in six seasons—wants to lean on the pass early to keep Barkley healthy and avoid the injury-related absences that have plagued him in the past. Because the current line still requires Barkley to be the ninth player in league history to reach 1,500 yards multiple times, Epstein views the under as the smarter season-long wager.

Chris Raybon called Hurts the elite passer with the widest gap between ADP and upside. Raybon reminded listeners that Hurts’ career highs—32 attempts and 247 yards per game—came just two seasons ago, and any Saquon Barkley injury would force volume back toward those numbers. If Hurts adds that passing bump to his still-legal Tush Push TD production, Raybon believes he could run away with overall QB1 honors, especially if Josh Allen’s rushing scores regress or Lamar Jackson misses time. He is comfortable drafting Hurts once he slips past his 32.0 ADP, labeling him his favorite target among the top-tier quarterbacks.

Sean Koerner said Jalen Hurts is set up for a textbook positive-regression year as a passer while retaining his nuclear rushing upside. Koerner bumped Hurts’ projection to 27.5 pass attempts and roughly 3,200 yards after last season’s 24.1 attempts and 1,930 yards, noting 2023 was artificially deflated by a dominant 2,000-yard Saquon Barkley rushing campaign that shortened drives and locked Philadelphia into run-heavy scripts. He added that A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert logged only 79 snaps together, suppressing efficiency that should normalize if the trio stays healthier. With the league refusing to ban the Tush Push, Koerner still pencils Hurts in for 11–12 rushing TDs, giving him both a safe weekly floor and top-overall ceiling. He ranks Hurts QB4 but views him as a slam-dunk pick when he slips into the late third or early fourth round of season-long drafts.

Chris Allen said Saquon Barkley is the safest way to open a 2025 draft from the 1.02 because his ceiling-plus-floor profile is already proven inside the Eagles’ offense. Barkley generated 30 explosive runs during the 2024 regular season and, counting the playoffs, ripped off 13 carries of 34-plus yards, eight of which went for touchdowns. He finished first in expected points added and still ranked fifth in success rate, a metric Allen noted is more predictive of future production than raw EPA. Philadelphia’s line remains a top-10 group (8th in Adjusted Yards Before Contact per Rush, 9th in Run-Block Win Rate), but Barkley’s own speed was responsible for the 4th- and 5th-fastest ball-carrier times last year, evidence the line is not carrying him. With no new target competition, Barkley should at least match last year’s 10.3% target share while again handling bell-cow rushing volume. Allen concluded that the intact offensive infrastructure and Barkley’s dual-threat usage make him an ideal “Hero RB” foundation when drafting from the two-spot.

Best Ball Guy pitched the Hurts-A.J. Brown-DeVonta Smith triple stack as this year’s version of last season’s Chase-Higgins-Burrow combo that powered so many tournament winners. Because Brown often goes near the 1-2 turn, Smith lingers until Round 5, and Hurts sometimes slips into Round 4, BBG said drafters can start with an anchor running back like Jahmyr Gibbs or Christian McCaffrey and still land all three Eagles studs in the next three rounds. Very few rooms are building that construction, creating a naturally unique roster that captures every Philadelphia passing touchdown while preserving elite RB scoring. He believes that concentrated correlation plus differentiated roster texture is the perfect recipe for smashing small-field contests such as the $50 Chow Chow and Sprint formats.

Best Ball Guy said DeVonta Smith is flat-out mis-priced at his current fifth-round ADP and should be treated like a third-rounder again. He reminded listeners that Smith finished as the half-PPR WR10 in 2022 and WR20 in 2023 despite missing four games last year. Even with the Eagles ranking near the bottom of the league in pass attempts, Smith has logged 7–8 touchdowns every season of his career. BBG called the 47th-overall price tag a classic "flop lag" because the market is reacting to last year’s injury dip rather than his per-game production. He expects Philadelphia’s passing volume to rebound slightly and argued that a healthy Smith gives you locked-in weekly floor with room for 1,200-yard, double-digit-TD upside—an easy click in Best Ball Sprint, Chow Chow, and BBM rooms.

Best Ball Guy highlighted a simple leverage angle: take AJ Brown at the Round-2/3 turn, then scoop Jalen Hurts if he drifts because most drafters pair Hurts with DeVonta Smith on the opposite side of the board. The market dislocation often leaves an elite Hurts-Brown stack available at a discount, granting 30-point quarterback upside without sacrificing another premium pick. BBG likes the combo especially in small-field contests where duplicated lineups are dead money and every long TD to Brown double-counts in your score. "Just by taking AJB you can lock in a cheap elite QB nobody else has with him," he said, calling it one of his favorite construction hacks this summer.

Best Ball Guy insisted you "gotta go Goedert with Hurts," calling the stack "just beauty." By pairing Dallas Goedert with Jalen Hurts, you capture every red-zone throw from the league’s most QB-friendly offense and add spike-week upside at a notoriously thin tight-end position. It also streamlines roster construction, letting you stop at two quarterbacks and two tight ends while chasing wide-receiver depth elsewhere. In small-field contests like the $50 Chow Chow, he believes the Hurts-Goedert combo offers the perfect mix of floor and ceiling to separate you from the pack.

Best Ball Guy said grabbing Jalen Hurts whenever he slips past ADP is a true "luxury pick." He had already opened the draft RB-RB and pointed out that the running-back shelf is bare on the following turn while wide-receiver depth remains strong. Snapping up Hurts now locks in an elite dual-threat ceiling without sacrificing receiver volume later. In his words, you avoid the dead-zone tier at running back, still double-tap wideouts on the wrap, and end up with a quarterback who can hang a 30-burger any week. He thinks that little roster-construction edge is especially valuable in the new $50 Chow Chow rooms where every point matters.

Erik Beimfohr argued that A.J. Brown is the premier value of the 2025 second round and should never fall outside the top-15 picks. Brown finished third among qualifying wideouts in yards per route run last season—behind only Puka Nacua and Nico Collins—despite the Eagles nursing double-digit leads, funneling carries to Saquon Barkley, and racking up goal-line QB sneaks that siphoned touchdowns away. Beimfohr called Philadelphia’s target tree "arguably the most condensed in football" and noted that simple variance could flip even a handful of Jalen Hurts one-yard plunges into Brown scores, instantly recreating his 2024 first-round profile. He dismissed durability concerns by pointing out Brown has produced WR1 numbers with both Hurts and backup Tanner McKee, giving him one of the league’s safest floors. The payoff is enormous: managers can open drafts with a Gibbs or McCaffrey type, then still land a top-five real-life receiver at Pick 17–18, or pair Brown with Brock Bowers for a start almost no room replicates. Beimfohr summed it up as a "small-miss, big-win" bet—outside of injury, he sees no scenario where drafters regret pressing the button, making Brown a staple in both Best Ball portfolios and high-stakes Season-Long leagues.

Pat Kerrane said he has basically stopped drafting Will Shipley at his current 168 ADP because the rookie offers nothing but contingent value. Kerrane noted he was at 24 % exposure in Underdog’s Big Board when Shipley cost far less, but he is now down to 4 % because the market is "paying up for knowledge that Shipley’s the number-two." In a game where late-season upside decides everything, Kerrane wants backs who can carve out touches without an injury—"I’m trying to find the next Kyren, not just hold a lottery ticket." Shipley’s profile is entirely binary: if Saquon Barkley stays healthy he is a weekly zero, making the new sticker price a poor risk-reward bet.

Erik Beimfohr argued the market has wildly over-corrected on AJ Brown, letting an unquestioned top-five talent fall to picks 17-18. Brown ranked third in yards per route run last season behind only Puka Nacua and Nico Collins while operating in one of the NFL’s most condensed target trees. Beimfohr noted that Philadelphia’s avalanche of one-yard TDs for Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts is pure variance—any shift toward normal red-zone distribution spikes Brown’s fantasy output. Even if the Eagles stay run-heavy, random bounce-back luck could vault Brown back to mid-first valuation. The flexibility is unrivaled: drafters can start with a first-round RB like Jameer Gibbs, then grab Brown, or get unique by pairing him with Brock Bowers or George Kittle at the 1-2 turn. Beimfohr calls Brown a "small-miss, big-win" pick whose only real downside is injury and says he never lets him pass in the second round, flattening exposure across other options to make sure he’s well over market.

Pat Kerrane said he has backed off Will Shipley—down to 4 percent exposure—because the rookie’s ADP has climbed into the 160s despite offering virtually no stand-alone touches behind Saquon Barkley. Kerrane prefers late-round backs who can force their way onto the field like Kyren Williams did last year, arguing Shipley is a binary bet whose only path is a Barkley injury. In an 18-round Best Ball format geared toward late-season upside, Kerrane believes tying up a roster slot in a probable zero is sub-optimal when wide-open situations such as Carolina’s or Arizona’s still produce backs with both contingent and emergent value. He will mix Shipley if the price falls, but at current cost he is directing that capital to rookies with clearer breakout pipelines such as RJ Harvey and Bachel Tootin.

Coventry called Saquon Barkley a "great bet" at 1.05, arguing that worries about last year’s heavy workload are overblown. He pointed to Philadelphia’s dominant offensive line and an upgraded receiving corps that will keep extra defenders out of the box, giving Barkley plenty of efficient touches. The only concern he acknowledged is sheer volume wear-and-tear, but he still prefers Barkley over most options if managers want a safer first-round profile than Christian McCaffrey.

Andy Holloway said his preferred elite-level fallback stack is Jalen Hurts with A.J. Brown. Holloway likes it because Brown is “undervalued” at the end of the first round while Hurts is being drafted at the very bottom of the top-four quarterbacks. That combination makes the pairing attainable for managers who miss out on the 1.01/1.02 picks needed for a Burrow-Chase start, yet it still offers true difference-maker upside from both spots in the lineup.

Buck called Saquon Barkley a "smash" at pick 1.05 and said he would even draft him ahead of CeeDee Lamb, Christian McCaffrey, or Jahmyr Gibbs. He dismissed concerns about last year’s 400-touch workload as survivorship bias, noting that players who handle that volume are elite talents who keep getting fed even if their efficiency slips. Buck added that Barkley could regress to 4.3 yards per carry and still crush because Philadelphia will lean on him as a true bell-cow. In Best Ball Mania, Buck views Barkley as the safest high-ceiling anchor you can grab from any slot after the top four.

Matt Harmon reiterated that A.J. Brown is still the last wideout drafted from his six-man "true elite" tier, but argued the market is ignoring a very real WR1-overall ceiling. Harmon walked through the Eagles’ current on-paper profile—dominant offensive line, Saquon-powered run game, and a defense he still projects as top-five—then reminded listeners how quickly those assumptions can crumble in the NFL. If interior star Jalen Carter or Saquon Barkley misses time, Philadelphia would almost certainly skew more pass-heavy. In that contingency, Brown’s profile as a "full-field dominant receiver"—career 2.60 yards per route run and top-three Reception Perception success rates—would explode. Harmon said Brown has been "extremely efficient throughout his career" and possesses the talent to finish as the overall WR1 whenever volume spikes. Because current Round-2 ADP bakes in only his median outcome, Harmon encouraged drafters to prioritize Brown in season-long leagues and build heavy best-ball exposure to capture the contingent upside.

Matt Harmon placed A.J. Brown in his six-man "true elite" receiver tier alongside Chase, Jefferson, Lamb, Nico Collins, and Puka Nacua but pointed out Brown routinely goes the latest of the group in fantasy drafts. Harmon conceded Philadelphia’s run-heavy scheme and top-five defense can siphon second-half passing volume, yet he still urges drafters to prioritize Brown because talent ultimately wins out. Brown ranked top-five in success rate versus both man and press in 2023 and remains the clear first read whenever the Eagles do throw. Harmon believes even a modest uptick in 2025 pass rate would unleash league-winning weeks and views Brown’s Round-2 ADP as a rare chance to buy an elite profile at a discount.

Eisenberg labeled rookie Will Shipley a deep sleeper worth one of your final picks. Saquon Barkley logged 480 touches during last year’s 2,000-yard campaign, and Eisenberg reminded listeners that rushers with that workload historically decline or get hurt the following season. If Barkley misses time, Shipley—assuming he beats out AJ Dillon, who is coming off a season-long neck injury—would step into a high-volume Eagles role behind the same elite offensive line. The potential for that kind of plug-and-play workload makes Shipley a classic late-round handcuff with league-winning upside.

Chris Raybon labeled Dallas Goddard the perfect ‘boring but profitable’ tight-end pick after he slid to TE14 in early best-ball drafts. Philadelphia logged its lowest pass rate of the Jalen Hurts era last season thanks to a run-first game-plan spawned by constant positive scripts and Saquon Barkley’s breakaway runs. Raybon expects that pendulum to swing back toward the air, noting that it takes very little target inflation for a tight end to jump from TE14 to TE5. Goddard already flashed that ceiling whenever one of the Eagles’ big three weapons missed time, and the range-of-outcomes for A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith or Barkley includes injuries that would funnel even more looks inside. With Travis Kelce aging, Mark Andrews coming off surgery, and a wide gap between the elite tier and everyone else, Raybon sees Goddard as a cheap way to soak up top-five upside while others chase sexier names. He is locking Goddard in as his TE2 when early builds ignore the position, confident the veteran will beat ADP far more often than the market believes.

Koerner called Will Shipley a clever add to Jalen Hurts–A.J. Brown–Dallas Goddard builds. If Saquon Barkley misses time, Shipley would smash his ADP while simultaneously forcing Hurts to throw more, pumping extra volume into Brown and Goddard. That injury-contingent correlation allows one lineup to capture multiple ceiling scenarios from a single offense, exactly the kind of asymmetric upside he targets in best ball.

Emory Hunt projected Saquon Barkley to blow past the 10.5 rushing-TD prop in his first season with the Eagles. Hunt expects Philadelphia’s elite offensive line and Hurts’ improved passing volume to create lighter boxes, allowing Barkley to approach last year’s 13 rushing scores—and possibly 15—while handling the bulk of non-tush-push carries near the goal line.

Shawn Siegele called DeVonta Smith one of the simplest clicks in FFPC best-ball rooms, claiming the market still discounts his true ceiling. Smith routinely falls to the 4/5 turn even though he owns week-winning spike ability and provides bye-week diversity for drafters stacking elite wideouts. Siegele argued that concerns about Jalen Hurts’ passing volume are already over-penalized, while an injury to new teammate Saquon Barkley would force Philadelphia to lean harder on its receivers, further boosting Smith’s target share. Because he is drafted well behind the first-round receiver tier but carries similar efficiency in a proven offense, Siegele says Smith is a “free win” when available after pick 45.

Jim Coventry argued DeVonta Smith remains an undervalued fourth-round pick. Even though "Philly doesn’t throw enough," he noted Smith’s per-game production was "very, very solid" when healthy—despite missing a few contests. The Eagles distribute targets narrowly, so Smith’s weekly workload is safe, and Coventry expects that concentrated usage to offset the overall low pass volume. Result: Smith profiles as a reliable high-end WR2 with spike-week potential in Season-Long leagues.

McFarland labelled Jalen Hurts an "absolute smash" at his Round-4 consensus ADP (40.1). Even in a worst-case 2024 environment where Philly led on 47% of snaps and posted league-low 48% drop-back rate, Hurts still scored 22.0 PPG and ran for 13 TDs. He has recorded 14, 15 and 13 rushing TDs the last three years and commands a league-high 48% of the Eagles’ carries inside the 5. McFarland projects 54% drop-back rate in 2025 (in line with 2022-23), bumping passing to roughly 225 YPG while the league’s No.1 offensive line and addition of Saquon Barkley keep red-zone efficiency sky-high. Model range: 18.3 floor, 22.5 median, 28.5 ceiling. Cheapest path to elite dual-threat production.

Hayden Winks argued Jalen Hurts remains a fantasy cheat code despite ranking him seventh overall. Hurts finished fourth in EPA on quarterback runs last season and showed he is more than a tush-push merchant by ripping off a 48-yard counter TD that included outrunning a linebacker and shrugging a defensive tackle. Winks pointed out Hurts is actually QB1 in completion percentage over expected on third and fourth downs over the past two years and noticeably improved against blitz looks once Kellen Moore arrived late in 2023. Combine that with his bucket-drop deep accuracy to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and the defensive stress Saquon Barkley will add, and Winks expects another top-five fantasy finish even if Hurts’ traditional pocket stats lag behind the pure passers.

Davis Mattek called Jalen Hurts the best value on the board once drafts hit the fifth round. He noted a clear tier break at wide receiver after George Pickens, meaning the opportunity cost of quarterback is lowest at that turn. Pairing Hurts’ elite rushing production with his top-five projection in every scoring setting outweighs any stacking concerns, especially for drafters who have already secured premium receivers. By taking Hurts at pick 51, Mattek explained, drafters avoid being boxed into Jared Goff or J.J. McCarthy later and keep the structural integrity of their Hero RB roster intact.

Ryan Heath highlighted Jalen Hurts as another prime Round 3-4 target. Hurts, along with Allen and Lamar Jackson, owns a 5-for-6 track record of league-winning seasons when drafted in that pocket the past three years. Heath’s study shows Hurts easily satisfies the key marker of at least 55 rush attempts (he logged 164 last season) while adding a unique cheat-code with the Eagles’ goal-line ‘tush-push.’ The Eagles’ offense remains stacked, and Hurts is still under 30, keeping age-related decline off the table. Heath argued that passing on shaky mid-round WRs like Davante Adams or Terry McLaurin in favor of Hurts’ weekly 25-point ceiling is the sharper path because you can circle back for mis-priced rookies such as Brian Thomas later.

Whalen pushed Saquon Barkley to RB3 within the top tier and warned of multiple red flags. Barkley piled up 2,000+ yards and a huge touch count last season, a statistical peak few backs repeat historically. The Eagles accomplished their Super Bowl goal and may manage Barkley’s regular-season workload to keep him fresh, amplifying injury concerns that already follow a runner with that usage. In full-PPR formats Barkley’s ceiling is further capped – he caught only 33 balls on 43 targets versus the 50-plus receptions Whalen expects from Bijan and Gibbs. He still endorses Barkley as an elite back but views him as the most fragile of the big three.

Brandon Kravitz admitted workload concerns after Saquon Barkley’s 2,000-plus scrimmage yards but kept him as his overall RB1. He cited historical data that backs a 500-yard dip the year after such a season, yet argued Barkley is in a far better ecosystem than past fall-off examples like Jamal Lewis or Chris Johnson. Barkley remains in his physical prime, now runs behind what Kravitz calls the league’s best offensive line, and operates inside a balanced, high-scoring offense that maximizes red-zone chances. Those situational advantages outweigh regression risk, so Kravitz still targets Barkley at the top of season-long drafts.

Brandon Kravitz said he would stay away from Jalen Hurts at 17-to-1 in the MVP market. His reasoning: Philadelphia leans on the run to salt games away, which limits late-game heroics that sway voters. Credit on offense is spread among dominant wideouts, an elite line and newcomer Saquon Barkley, making it hard for Hurts to stand out individually. Kravitz noted the award’s quarterback bias still requires eye-popping counting stats and narrative comebacks—neither fits the Eagles’ typical game script. With several other quarterbacks offering clearer paths to gaudy volume, he advised putting betting dollars elsewhere.

Whalen declined the A.J. Brown 10-plus TD prop at +225. Brown has topped that mark only once (11 in 2022), meaning bettors would sweat the ticket deep into Week 18. Whalen worries about Brown’s physical style—"beat to hell down the field"—that already cost him games last year. With health baked in and a narrow margin over the listed total, Whalen does not believe the payout justifies the risk.

Nez said he is finally "taking his medicine" and prioritizing AJ Brown over the Drake London tier because a handful of small variables could unleash a nuclear season. Brown averaged a ridiculous seven straight 100-yard games the last time the Eagles were pushed into pass-heavy scripts, and even in 2023 — when Philadelphia rarely trailed — he still finished top-five in yards per route. Nez cited the stat that Jalen Hurts completed only ‘50-something’ passes while trailing across Brown’s final 14 games, underscoring how little volume the Eagles needed. If the defense regresses, that number has nowhere to go but up, and a fully healthy Brown would soak up the extra attempts. Nez’s takeaway: Brown owns the same overall WR1 ceiling as CeeDee Lamb but still sneaks into the late-second/early-third of Underdog’s Badge Bros Brawl, so keep smashing him before the market corrects.

Jason Moore said he is stashing rookie Will Shipley at the very end of drafts because beat reporters believe the fourth-rounder has already jumped A.J. Dillon on the depth chart to become Saquon Barkley’s primary backup. Kenneth Gainwell is gone, and Dillon is reportedly fighting for a roster spot, leaving Shipley—5'11", 209 lbs, 4.46 speed and a productive three-year resume at Clemson—as the next man up behind a 28-year-old starter coming off 482 total touches. Moore called Shipley a must-have contingency play in deeper season-long leagues and an ideal late-round best-ball flier who could inherit league-winning volume if Barkley misses time.

Mike Wright warned drafters that Barkley’s massive 2024 workload is the textbook red-flag for a downturn. Wright dug up a sample of every back since 2020 who logged at least 330 touches (ten players total). All ten saw their volume fall by 45 or more touches the following year and only two managed to play a full 17-game slate. Barkley, now 28-and-a-half years old, smashed that threshold with 378 regular-season touches and another 104 in the playoffs. Although Philadelphia’s league-best offensive line and run-first identity make it easy to dream on a repeat, Wright thinks the historical attrition curve plus Barkley’s age makes him too risky at 1.01. He still ranks Saquon ahead of Jahmyr Gibbs but prefers Bijan Robinson as the safer top overall pick in both season-long drafts and best-ball tournaments where missing games is a killer.

Andy Holloway ranked the Eagles defense as the No. 1 DST in his Ultimate Draft Kit and urged drafters to consider them a round earlier than usual. Philadelphia allowed the fewest total yards in 2023, and the gap between them and No. 2 Houston was the widest in the last decade. Holloway highlighted two rookie-year standouts in the secondary who now enter Year 2, plus a front seven that anchored a 160-point positive differential. Even with a tougher strength-of-schedule (fourth hardest), he expects the unit to generate sacks and turnovers because the roster is "the best on both sides of the ball" and the offense still dictates tempo, forcing opponents into pass-heavy catch-up mode. That combination, Holloway said, makes the Eagles a rare defense worth targeting instead of pure streaming.

Andy Holloway advised passing on Saquon Barkley at the 1.03 in favor of Bijan Robinson, citing extreme workload and age-related injury risk. Barkley logged 378 regular-season carries and another 104 in the playoffs—a massive 482-touch campaign that few 28-year-old backs survive unscathed the following year. Holloway noted research showing backs who exceed 370 touches see both efficiency and games-played dip the next season. While admitting the volume is "what you dream of" if Barkley holds up, Holloway views the probability of breakdown too high for an early-first-round pick. He prefers Robinson’s fresher legs, lighter 272-touch rookie total, and ascendant usage profile in Arthur Smith’s run-centric Atlanta attack.

Jason Moore said the main worry with A.J. Brown in 2023 was game script. Philadelphia led the league in rush-rate and finished dead last in pass-rate, which produced only 32 second-half targets for Brown—2.5 per game—despite a blazing start that ranked fifth in first-half looks. Moore expects that to change because Warren Sharp projects the Eagles to face the NFL’s fourth-hardest schedule, including dates with Kansas City and, presumably, two games of Dak-led Dallas instead of last year’s Dak-less matchups. Moore believes those offenses can force shoot-outs and keep Jalen Hurts throwing all four quarters. He argued that Brown’s elite talent (1,456 yards on just 106 catches) combined with even a modest bump in attempts makes him worth his current late-Round-1/early-Round-2 ADP in season-long and a smash pick in best ball formats where spike weeks rule.