Billy Ward played the over 1.5 rounds at +130 and will pivot to "fight to start Round 2" if sportsbooks hang plus money. He expects Saint Denis to dial back his trademark berserker pace after back-to-back losses and a newly-hired head coach urging patience. Opponent Kyle Prepolec has never been knocked out and has not been finished in more than a decade—the lone stoppage came against Kevin Lee on the regionals—so Ward doubts an early blitz lands clean. He also reminded listeners Prepolec was already in a full camp for another Montreal show 24 hours earlier, eliminating the usual short-notice cardio concerns. Ward envisions Prepolec having surprising success in the first five minutes before the favorite eventually takes over, a script that cashes the over far more than the 43% implied by current odds.

DFS Army said to "lock in" Benoit Saint-Denis for cash games and stay overweight in GPPs even if he pushes 50% ownership. The Frenchman is roughly a –1100 favorite (they joked it should be –11 million) against short-notice replacement Kyle Prepolec, while the under 1.5 rounds sits at –160 and the under 2.5 at –550. Saint-Denis has been a DraftKings wrecking ball—150 points in 9.5 minutes versus Thiago Moises, 114 in under five against Gabriel Bonfim, and 135 in five minutes against Matt Frevola—showing that he is not first-round dependent yet still finishes early. The hosts dismissed his two-fight skid to Renato Moicano and Dustin Poirier as short-notice bouts when he was literally coaching himself; he now has a full camp. They will have only 2–3 of 150 lineups on Prepolec (+700) as pure lottery tickets, calling a near full fade of the underdog “a waste of money.”

Gumby Vreeland agreed that Saint-Denis is the side but stressed *why*: Prepolec’s takedown defense has failed at both UFC and regional levels (controlled for long stretches by Austin Hubbard last time out). After back-to-back KO losses, Vreeland expects Saint-Denis to lean on his wrestling—72% takedown success in previous wins—and believes a single takedown could end the fight via submission or ground-and-pound. He advised bettors to skip the –900 moneyline and instead attack the Round-1 or ITD props for a far better return.

Jeff Fox said Benoit Saint-Denis is a smash play against short-notice replacement Kyle Prepolec. Fox pointed out that Prepolec went 0-2 in his first UFC stint, has been outstruck by 1.5 strikes per minute at this level, and is taking the bout on roughly one week’s notice. Saint-Denis, meanwhile, has finished all 13 of his career wins (4 KOs, 9 subs), owns superior grappling metrics, and will be the bigger, younger, and far more active fighter (+0.19 SApM, large wrestling edge). Fox expects Saint-Denis to overwhelm Prepolec early, recommending an Inside-the-Distance or even Round-1 prop instead of laying the heavy –900 moneyline.

Cody Saftic backed the over 1.5 rounds at plus money, citing Kyle Prepolec’s iron chin and Benoit Saint Denis’s inflated price. Saftic reminded listeners that Prepolec has never been knocked out—his only two stoppage losses came by submission more than ten years ago to Jason Fisher and Kevin Lee, both elite grapplers. Even if BSD eventually breaks the 35-year-old Canadian, Saftic believes it happens late because Saint Denis is likely to wrestle and grind rather than swing wildly after two knockout losses of his own. With the favorite hovering around –1,000 and the total still plus money to clear 7:30, Saftic called the over "the only logical entry" instead of risking a parlay-buster chalk line.

Michael Iurato said the only playable number in the Saint Denis-Prepolec short-notice matchup is the over 1.5 rounds, which opened +165 and is still +145 at most shops. Iurato stressed that Prepolec has never been finished—he went the distance with Austin Hubbard and Nordin Taleb in his first UFC stint and has not been stopped in 23 pro bouts. Meanwhile Saint Denis has been knocked down and finished in back-to-back fights, carries noticeable scar tissue, and, after two wars in eight months, "needs to get back on track" rather than sprint for a kill. Iurato expects the favorite to start measured, lean on clinch control and top pressure instead of reckless pocket trades, which should push the fight past the 7-minute mark. Because the money-line sits north of –900 and the under is juiced to –205, he believes plus-money on the over is the most efficient way to bet the fight.

The Weasle projected Benoit Saint Denis to tap Kyle Prepolec mid-fight, calling the matchup a classic striker-versus-grappler that tilts heavily toward BSD once it hits the mat. Both men are southpaws with comparable hand speed, and Prepolec’s angular footwork plus slick counters could win early exchanges, especially because left-on-left stances mute BSD’s preferred body kick. However, Prepolec accepted the bout on short notice, has shown porous defensive wrestling in regional footage, and will be dealing with Saint Denis’ relentless double-legs and suffocating top game. The moment BSD secures a takedown, The Weasle expects a rapid positional advance to back mount or arm-triangle territory and a finish before the horn ends round two. He cautioned that staying upright gives Prepolec knockout chances—remember the lead-high-kick KO on his highlight reel—but trusts Saint Denis’ grappling advantage and gas tank to cash a sub ticket.

Millz Young views Benoit Saint-Denis as a justifiable ‑1000 favorite because replacement opponent Kyle Prepolec is taking the fight on short notice and went 0-2 in his previous UFC stint before bouncing around Bellator and PFL. Saint-Denis is a relentless pressure grappler who chains takedowns into ground-and-pound or submissions, and Millz believes Prepolec’s regional-level defensive wrestling will crumble once the Frenchman closes distance. The bout feels like the promotion set it up to give Saint-Denis a showcase finish in front of a North American crowd. Millz’s angle is Saint-Denis inside the distance or using him as the one ‘safe’ parlay piece on an otherwise volatile card.

The Weasle urged listeners to throw a small bet on Kyle Prepolec at +700 even though he still projects Benoit Saint Denis to get his hand raised. At that price, he said you are paying for a miracle when Prepolec is actually a proven knockout artist with sharp south-paw counters, a sneaky left high-kick and crisp angles that can punish Saint Denis’ overly aggressive entries. Weasle reminded viewers that BSD has been rocked before — Nicolas Stolze wobbled him and Elizeu Zaleski dragged him into a brawl — so his defense is far from airtight. A single clean shot from Prepolec could cash a massive underdog ticket, and the Canadian’s power upside makes the +700 money-line simply mispriced. The official play: sprinkle Prepolec straight or as a hail-mary parlay piece while acknowledging Saint Denis by submission is still the most likely result.

Calling it “free money,” Bedtime MMA predicted Benoit Saint Denis to secure a rear-naked choke inside the first round against late-replacement Kyle Prepolec. He expects the Frenchman’s trademark pressure to bully the 35-year-old Canadian to the fence, dump him with a double-leg, and transition to the back for a quick finish. The pick is less about intricate tape and more about the mismatch: Saint Denis is a surging bonus machine, while Prepolec is a UFC re-tread stepping in on short notice. The tout labeled anything other than a dominant R1 tap as a shock.

MMA Guru advised parlaying Benoit Saint Denis inside-the-distance rather than laying the –1000 moneyline, calling Kyle Prepolec a ‘sacrificial lamb’ brought in on short notice because he is Canadian. Prepolec went 0-2 in his first UFC stint—dropping decisions to Nordine Taleb and another veteran—then fought mostly sub-.500 regional opponents while pulling out of six scheduled bouts with injuries. By contrast, Saint Denis was just offered Mateusz Gamrot and declined, signaling the UFC views him as a future contender. Guru expects the Frenchman’s southpaw body kicks and chain wrestling (4.60 takedowns per 15 minutes at 49 % accuracy) to overwhelm Prepolec, whose 58 % takedown defense cratered against Taleb. With Prepolec happy to trade, Guru projects a ground-and-pound or club-and-sub stoppage inside seven minutes and recommends the Under 1.5 or Round 1/2 finish prop for better value.