Larry Hartstein bet Quinshon Judkins Over 13.5 rushing attempts at ‑120. The second-round pick has watched his workload climb from zero in Week 1 to 10 carries in Week 2 and 18 in Week 3, while every other Browns back combined for just one tote last Sunday. Judkins is rewarding that trust with 5.5 yards per carry. Hartstein, who cashed all five of his 2024 futures and is on a 16-9 run (+493), expects Cleveland to lean on the rookie again and projects 15-18 rushes in Detroit.

Everett laid the 8.5 with Detroit even while acknowledging Cleveland’s defense kept Green Bay out of the end zone two weeks ago. He expects the Lions’ own top-10 defensive unit to suffocate Joe Flacco and trusts Ben Johnson’s balanced offense to methodically reach a 20-10 type final. Detroit’s home splits (30.2 ppg in 2024) and the Browns’ anemic 4.7 yards per pass under Flacco drove the call.

Matt Jacob recommended under 48.5 rushing yards for David Montgomery. Through three games Cleveland has allowed only 172 rushing yards on 75 carries, an NFL-best 2.29 yards per rush; the next-best defense is giving up 2.78, and 28 other teams are above 3.60. Montgomery needed just 12 carries for 151 yards Monday night in Baltimore, but managed only 57 and 25 yards in the previous two weeks on identical 11-carry workloads. Jacob also noted Montgomery has not eclipsed 50 rushing yards in three straight games since 2023. With the Lions on a short week, Jacob expects more touches for the younger Jahmyr Gibbs and pegged Montgomery’s "absolute ceiling" at 40 yards against the Browns’ brick-wall front.

Vic Tafur grabbed Cleveland +10, highlighting rookie back Quinshon Judkins, who leads his class with 155 rushing yards despite missing a game and memorably pancaked Micah Parsons last week. Coupled with a Browns defense surrendering just 3.8 yards per play (second best), Tafur thinks Detroit — coming off an emotional win on a short week — will win but not clear double digits.

Walder forecasted that the Browns will hold both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery under 4.0 yards per carry. Cleveland leads the NFL in yards allowed per rush (2.3) and run-stop win rate (38%). With Jim Schwartz’s front dominating first- and second-down gaps, Walder expects Detroit’s ground game to stall, suggesting DFS fades on the Lions’ backfield and possible unders on rushing prop lines.