Best Ball Guy was thrilled to land David Montgomery at pick 77, calling it 'pretty good value' and noting the mini Detroit correlation with his earlier Jameson Williams selection. He believes Montgomery’s role in the Lions’ offense supplies steady weekly touches and touchdown equity, making him an every-week starter and a perfect anchor for receiver-heavy builds when he slips into the late sixth or early seventh round on Underdog.

Jim Coventry cautioned that David Montgomery’s RB22 price tag ignores multiple red flags. He has missed at least three games in each of the past two seasons and four in 2021, so availability is a growing concern. Efficiency dipped from 4.6 to 4.2 yards per carry last year, and while that still ranked 63rd percentile, Coventry doubts it holds behind an interior line now starting a rookie center replacement for Frank Ragnow plus two unproven guards. Because Montgomery does most of his work between the tackles, any downgrade up the gut could sap yards and force him to live solely on touchdowns (12 scores in 14 games each of the last two years). With Gibbs siphoning touches and the blocking downgraded, Montgomery could underperform even his seemingly modest ADP.

Coventry targeted David Montgomery in Round 6, reminding viewers that Monty thrived alongside Gibbs last year and should "get plenty of volume" again. Even if Gibbs’ role grows, Montgomery’s goal-line work and 200-touch projection make him a sturdy RB3/flex.

Chris Raybon pushed back hard on taking David Montgomery at his current RB21 best-ball ADP. Raybon argued the veteran’s profile is deteriorating on several fronts: (1) Montgomery is the older of the two Lions backs and has the more recent injury history, making him the likelier one to miss games. (2) He posted his first sub-par yards-before-contact mark just as Detroit’s interior line regressed, a red flag because that metric depends heavily on blocking quality. (3) New offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is gone, and a fresh staff might lean further into Jahmyr Gibbs after the rookie showed he deserved a larger workload while playing all 17 games. (4) Montgomery’s career yards per route run usually hovers around 1.0, but it spiked above 2.0 last year—something Raybon sees as pure regression fuel rather than a new receiving role. Combine a tougher 2026 schedule, fewer projected red-zone trips and Gibbs’s ability to siphon high-value touches, and Raybon sees Montgomery’s upside capped at a middling RB2 while carrying real RB3 downside. He advised passing on Monty in that price range and attacking younger, more versatile backs instead.

Sean Koerner defended drafting David Montgomery around RB24 even after Ben Johnson’s departure and fears of a larger Jahmyr Gibbs workload. Montgomery posted the fourth-highest rate of top-24 weekly finishes last season despite Gibbs playing all 17 games, illustrating a rock-solid floor that stems from goal-line dominance. Koerner stressed that the true ceiling case never surfaced—if Gibbs misses time, Montgomery projects as a top-5 option. He conceded the Lions offense may regress but countered that a healthier defense could keep game scripts positive, preserving red-zone opportunities. At cost, Montgomery embodies Koerner’s preferred archetype: a back who delivers startable scores most weeks yet still boasts injury-contingent tournament-winning upside.

Chris Raybon urged managers to treat David Montgomery as thin ice at his RB21 cost. Raybon expects Jameer Gibbs to carve out an even larger share under Detroit’s new coaching staff after flashing explosiveness last year. He noted the Lions project for a tougher 2025 schedule, likely creating more negative game scripts that zap early-down, goal-line carries—exactly where Montgomery racks up fantasy points. Montgomery is now past the running-back peak age curve and already nursed multiple lower-body injuries in 2024. Efficiency is slipping too: both his yards before contact and after contact fell, and Detroit’s interior offensive line downgraded in free agency. Raybon summed it up by saying Montgomery used to be a free-money ADP smash but now offers very little cushion—unless Gibbs misses a half-dozen games, Montgomery’s floor looks closer to waiver wire fodder than RB2 security.

Whalen slotted David Montgomery at the top of Tier 5, noting he finished top-10 in red-zone carries, top-5 inside the 10, and sixth inside the five last year. Even with Ben Johnson gone, he trusts Detroit’s offense to generate scoring chances and sees Montgomery repeating 8-12 TDs as the thunder to Jahmyr Gibbs’ lightning. Lack of passing volume caps upside, but the goal-line role provides a safe RB2 floor.

Nick Holtz recommended passing on David Montgomery at his RB20 price tag. Montgomery averaged 16 touches per game across the past two seasons but is coming off an MCL injury and should cede more opportunities to the far more explosive Jameer Gibbs. Holtz expects Montgomery’s touchdown-driven 2024 fantasy production to regress, especially with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson leaving Detroit, a change he believes will pull down Jared Goff’s and, by extension, Montgomery’s red-zone output. He slots Montgomery as a low-end RB2 and thinks drafters are paying a premium for last year’s scores.

Chris Raybon said 2024 is the year to bail on David Montgomery before the cliff hits. Red flags include: just 1.1 yards before contact per attempt in 2023, only one run longer than 21 yards on 192 carries, and the age-28 drop-off for early-down grinders. The Lions’ interior line worsened after Frank Ragnow’s retirement and Kevin Zeitler’s exit, and new OC John Morton could tilt usage toward Jahmyr Gibbs’ explosiveness. Raybon has already bet Detroit to miss the playoffs, forecasting more negative scripts that sap Montgomery’s touchdown equity. He also expects Montgomery’s 2.2 yards per route run to regress toward his 1.1-yard career norm, erasing last season’s receiving floor. Rather than pay middle-round “purgatory” pricing, Raybon prefers late handcuffs with true league-winning upside.

Sean Koerner argued that David Montgomery remains a value because his fantasy floor survived Jameer Gibbs’ rookie breakout and his ceiling explodes if Gibbs ever misses time. Montgomery finished 2023 as RB18 on 219 touches and 13 goal-line carries despite a 55/45 split. Koerner’s 2024 projections keep him in that RB2 range, but his upside chart vaults Montgomery into the top-five mix whenever Gibbs is out because Detroit historically funnels 80-plus percent of inside-the-five work to its lead back. Compared with similar contingency bets such as Tyler Allgeier or Ray Davis, Koerner prefers Montgomery in the RB30 neighborhood, calling him “one of the cheapest paths to a genuine top-five outcome.”

Mike Wright wants no part of David Montgomery at his fifth-round ADP. Wright called Montgomery "fragile and risky," noting that 70 percent of his 2024 carries came while Detroit was leading or tied—luxury game scripts unlikely to repeat with the NFL’s third-hardest schedule and Ben Johnson out of town. The Lions’ offensive-line grade has already fallen from fourth to 13th per PFF, and Montgomery offers little pass-game insurance in comeback mode. While Montgomery would be a smash if Gibbs were sidelined, Wright emphasized that you are passing on locked-in starters such as Isiah Pacheco and Aaron Jones to draft a committee back whose scoring-position touches could shrink. He advised fading Montgomery in season-long leagues unless his price slips two full rounds.

Montgomery already has standalone value after 25 TDs across two seasons, but Ward emphasized that an injury to Jahmyr Gibbs would immediately catapult him into the top-10 RB conversation. The ranks sit at 52 overall versus an ADP north of 70, making him a priority anchor-RB2 or flex in early Best Ball drafts.

Mike Wright acknowledged touchdown regression concerns for David Montgomery but maintained that, among non-rookie backs available in the 5th-to-7th-round range, Montgomery remains the best bet. He has tallied 25 touchdowns the past two seasons and finished as an upper-RB2 both years. Wright noted that backs like Isiah Pacheco, Aaron Jones, Tony Pollard, and Tyrone Tracy carry either committee worries or rookie uncertainty. Even if Montgomery slips to eight scores, he still projects ahead of those peers thanks to entrenched goal-line usage in Ben Johnson’s run-heavy scheme. Until late-summer ADP pushes the incoming rookies ahead, Wright believes Detroit’s veteran hammer offers the most bankable floor in the so-called RB dead zone.

Mike Wright flagged David Montgomery as one of the shakier fifth-round running-back picks for 2025. Wright said 37% of Montgomery’s fantasy points over the past two seasons came via touchdowns and that last year 6.5% of his carries turned into scores – the second-highest rate in the league and a classic red-flag for regression. Detroit’s ecosystem is also changing: OC Ben Johnson is gone, All-Pro center Frank Ragnow – PFF’s top run-blocking pivot three years running – has retired, and history shows elite TD machines cool off fast. Wright cited seven offenses in the last decade that averaged 3.8-plus touchdowns per game; every one dropped by at least ten total TDs the following season (e.g., 2016 Falcons 4.1 → 2.2, 2018 Chiefs 4.4 → 3.5, 2020 Packers 4.1 → 3.1). If Detroit loses even one touchdown per week, the low-explosive Montgomery (longest rush just 21 yards on 185 carries) is the back who suffers, especially because a sputtering attack would lean harder on Jameer Gibbs’ big-play juice. Wright added Montgomery is now 28, has never played a full 17-game slate, over-performed in the passing game with a 95% catch rate, and lacks the breakaway runs younger backs provide. He still sees contingent upside if Gibbs misses time but called Montgomery a fragile, touchdown-dependent bet whose floor is eight or fewer scores – a number that would leave fantasy managers cursing a fifth-round investment.

Pete Overzet said he had to smash David Montgomery when the Lions back slid well past slot value, noting ETR’s ranks show him as a clear tier ahead of the other names on the board. Montgomery’s 2023 profile—268 touches, 14 TDs, and top-10 red-zone attempts—remains intact behind one of football’s three best offensive lines and in Ben Johnson’s run-friendly red-zone script. Overzet reminded listeners that Jahmyr Gibbs does not threaten Montgomery’s goal-line monopoly and the Lions projects for another 26-plus rushing TD season. In a hyper-fragile build that already featured Walker and another early back, Montgomery locks in weekly RB2 production while still offering multi-score spike weeks. At his current ADP he is “the rare middle-round runner that checks rank, ADP and floor all at once,” making him an easy click whenever he falls a round past consensus.

Sean Koerner said David Montgomery belongs in the mid-RB2 range, ranking him RB17 while current ADP sits at RB24. Koerner pointed to Montgomery’s rock-solid floor created by a steady dose of goal-line work inside one of the league’s run-heaviest red-zone attacks. Even with Jahmyr Gibbs active all 17 games last season—and Montgomery himself missing three contests—Monty still finished as a weekly RB2 more often than not, which Koerner labeled “essentially his floor.” If Gibbs were to miss time, Koerner’s weekly projections rocket Montgomery into the top-five running-back conversation because he would monopolize early-down and scoring touches. Koerner thinks drafters are again underestimating that high-floor/high-ceiling combo and sees no scheme downgrade despite OC Ben Johnson’s departure, noting Detroit is likely to keep the same power-run DNA.

Andy Holloway predicted David Montgomery will once again finish as a top‑15 running back on a points‑per‑game basis. His case rests on Detroit’s unwavering commitment to Montgomery near the goal line—he averaged 2.8 red‑zone carries last season even when Jahmyr Gibbs was healthy. Holloway noted that Ben Johnson’s departure could nudge the offense toward a slightly more conservative, run‑heavy approach under new OC Tanner Engstrand, but history suggests the Lions still live inside the five‑yard line. Montgomery’s 36% share of team rushing attempts inside the 10 dwarfed Gibbs’ 19%, and the veteran back hauled in a respectable 25 targets to prevent game‑script benching. Holloway views Montgomery as the cheaper way to buy into one of the league’s highest‑scoring offenses and believes the touchdown floor alone makes him a high‑end RB2 with top‑15 upside.