Lonte Smith hammered UNDER in all caps for Guardians-Giants, recommending the first-five under, full-game under 7 and even a Guardians first-five team-total under. He highlighted Logan Webb’s ridiculous Oracle splits—just four earned runs allowed combined in three home starts versus the Dodgers, Padres and Braves—and his 21-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in that stretch. On the other side Gavin Williams has permitted two or fewer earned in six of eight overall and four straight road outings. Although Williams owns 25 walks in those eight starts, Smith believes Cleveland’s bullpen depth can cover the inevitable early hook. Cleveland’s offense has gone ice-cold again, while San Francisco’s bats, though improving, still sit bottom-third in wRC+. Smith envisions a 2-1 or 3-1 game and would sprinkle the no-home-run prop as added exposure to a low-scoring slog.

Scott Reichel urged bettors to keep blindly cashing the full-game under 7 any time Logan Webb pitches in Oracle Park. Webb has yielded only four total runs across his last three home outings despite facing the Dodgers, Padres and Braves, posting a 21-to-3 K/BB ratio in that span and continuing his multi-year trend of elite home results. Reichel added that Gavin Williams is in quietly good form—two earned runs or fewer in six of his last eight starts and four straight on the road—so Cleveland can match zeros early. While Williams’ 25 walks over those eight games inflate his pitch count, Reichel trusts Cleveland’s bullpen to hold the line against a San Francisco lineup that, despite a recent five-run spurt, has still dropped four of its last five. With both offenses ranking bottom-third in hard-hit rate and the heavy marine layer suppressing power, he projected another 3-2 type finish and even likes the ‘no home run’ prop as a correlated play.

Kenny G leaned to the Giants moneyline at –170 behind Logan Webb, who owns a 2.58 ERA and is fresh off seven scoreless frames against the Dodgers. San Francisco pairs him with the best bullpen in baseball (2.64 ERA) and a 22-12 home record. He’s betting against Cleveland’s scuffling lineup—25th in runs, 25th in batting average (.231) and 24th in OBP—and a shaky Gavin Williams who lasted only four innings in his last outing and carries a 3.89 ERA. The Guardians are just 17-20 on the road and 17-16-4 to the under there, underscoring their run-scoring woes. While Kenny admits –170 is slightly rich and stops short of a “lock of the day” label, he still prices San Francisco closer to –195 given the Webb/bullpen edge and is willing to pay the current tag.

Eric Lindquist said he will be looking to play Logan Webb’s over 18.5 outs once the market posts. Lindquist noted that San Francisco consistently lets Webb work a fourth time through the order—an extreme rarity in today’s game—because the sinker-baller stays in the lower third of the zone and keeps the ball on the ground. He expects that leash to continue against a Cleveland lineup whose only real thunder (Kyle Manzardo, et al.) is neutralized by the spacious right field at Oracle Park. The Guardians own league-worst ISO numbers away from Progressive Field, and Webb’s 61% ground-ball rate and sub-6% walk rate make run prevention likely. Lindquist said anything near standard juice on 18.5 outs is actionable in this spot.

Calling it only a "very small lean," Kenny G still preferred Cleveland at +120 against Justin Verlander, who is 0-3 with a 4.33 ERA and returns from a pectoral IL stint at 42 years old. Logan Allen (4.28 ERA) has been serviceable, allowing two or fewer earned in three of his last five, and faces a Giants lineup that ranks 14th in runs but bottom-10 in batting average and OBP. San Francisco’s bullpen is the best in baseball, yet Kenny questions whether Verlander can give them a lead to protect and notes the Guardians’ relief corps (3.73 ERA) remains solid enough. With Cleveland’s offense anemic (25th in runs), this is not a full-confidence play, but Kenny believes the coin-flip nature of two inconsistent starters makes the plus-money side the only viable bet.

Malcom Bamford played the Guardians first-five moneyline at plus money, hanging his hat on San Francisco’s dreadful early-game numbers against southpaws. The Giants are just 3-12-6 (W-L-Push) in the first five innings when facing a left-handed starter and 8-13 straight-up through five in those same matchups. Bamford noted that Logan Allen’s "boring" 4.28 ERA/1.51 WHIP profile still matches modern-day Justin Verlander, who sits at a 4.33 ERA and is slightly worse at home. With the pitchers essentially a wash and Cleveland’s bats at least holding serve, he sees that lopsided split as the clear edge, making Guardians F5 a strong plus-price angle.